lock of the year

[rightsideup]

the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS are going to demolish green bay...1 1/2 points is the biggest underlay that i have seen in years..green bays offense is that bad....the saints defense is much better than people gave them credit for...although it was cleveland, other than frye scrambling for his life, cleveland had 30 yrds rushing...and believe me when i tell you , this team is going to be hell on turf for defenses.. i watched that game last week and when bush and mcalister are in the game at the same time, the element of surprise is unreal..the saints averaged almost 6 yards a carry.. they won by 5, but they completely dominated the game..t.o.p. was almost doubled..this team is going to shred green bays terrible rush defense...people just dont realize the offensive weapons that they have...brees,bush,mcallister(100% healthy), horn and a 6'5" rookie (marcus colston) 4'45 40 and unbelievable hands...steal in the last round out of hofstra...not to mention, the coach is a parcells disciple and hes got his $hit together.....MASSACRE... 38-17

[Dbldown11]

Green Bay covers this and wins this game outright. There is no way you the Packers should be underdogs at home to one of the bottom feeders in the NFL. The Packers offense will allow Favre to throw the ball more early in the game this week in manageable situations, and Ahman green will run all over the saints D. Plus you factor in that Favre was just shut out for the first time in his career, and their defense didnt play that bad aside from one long pass, and being screwed wiht field position. Green Bay wins outright, i cannot believe everyone is on the Saints like they are

[Augustus]

The Packers are 28-14 SU and 24-18 ATS (57.14 percent) against non-division NFC teams.

[Augustus]

The Packers are 28-14 SU and 24-18 ATS (57.14 percent) against non-division NFC teams.

[Augustus]

The Packers are 28-14 SU and 24-18 ATS (57.14 percent) against non-division NFC teams.

[SportsPickPros]

I would like New Orleans in this game if they weren't going to Green Bay and Lambeau field. One rule I have is to never go against the Packers and Favre in that stadium because you never know what can happen. He has the ability to pull the NFL gods out of his rear end and play the game of his life at any moment.

[John Galt1]

Leaning towards GB but this probably will pass

[bigboydan]

I too have a small lean towards the Packers in this game myself John. I know there pertty piss poor this year, but I just don't feel that N.O. is all that great either.

btw, welcome to the sbrforum SportsPickPros

[ivyconniver]

This is by far the wackiest line out there this sunday. it's screaming for NO money after the Favre meltdown of last year and week 1. I wouldn't be suprised if GB wins this one by 7-10

[JohnnyBoy928]

I agree totally.... Green Bay will dominate this game... N.O.'s defense is too weak... Favre will have enough time to react...

This is by far the wackiest line out there this sunday. it's screaming for NO money after the Favre meltdown of last year and week 1. I wouldn't be suprised if GB wins this one by 7-10

[goldengoat]

i like the saints

[stump]

I would bet on Green Bay in this game. Wins will be few for GB this year, and after last weeks brutal loss, they get the win this week

[sonnythekid]

Ah...mm...sorry to say this rightsideup.If you called that is a
lock then to bad because i had the key to unlocked it .No,seriously don't play N.O ,not even a cent.(Trust me on this) you will thanks me later!

[Hoja Verdes]

NO or pass

Call it a trap, call it all you want, but clearly the play here is New Orleans or not at all.

I'm sorry, but there's simply no way you can put money on GB until they give you a reason to. Of all the teams in the league, you can make a decent argument that they are in absolute turmoil. The kind of turmoil where the players don't even want to suit up on Sunday. I'll continue to fade them until they prove me wrong.

[raqsshoes]

its always been hard for me to go against GB at home

[the boss]

Got to fade GB until they prove us wrong. Especially at a pickem price!

[Dark Horse]

First of all, it is notoriously dangerous to go against a team that comes off being shut out. I don't care how bad GB is. They will play with a chip on their shoulders that is normally reserved for the playoffs.

Secondly, GB just played the best defense in the league. There is no doubt that GB is now underrated in the public eye.

Third, the trigger words that get me salivating all over the fade are 'lock' and 'GOY'.

Fourth, WTF is NO? Does anyone think NO will dominate GB, just because CHI did?

Waiting for this line to hit 3. That will be hammertime.

[rightsideup]

my my

i am trying to decipher HOW a couple of you guys can say that the saints defense is bad...!!!!what are you basing this on...certainly not last week...as of now, they are ranked third in the nfl....and if you are basing it off last year,then this is a mistake you must live with....6 different starters, a new d-coord, with a totally different scheme and a lot of speed.....i am certainly not saying that they are even better than average, but they are light years better than last year...their d is better than green bays D.....so, if you want to put your money on lambeau field mystique, go ahead, but i am putting on brees(better than favre), mcalister,(better than green), bush(faster than anybody on the field), horn(destroys a putrid green bay defense) and a saints defense that doesnt have to protect against the run, because green bay has no running game, o, and no receivers either and by the way, last year was crappy haslett coached teamed 2 weeks after hurricane katrina against a mike sherman coached team...this year its sean payton against mike mcarthy(who by the way was jim hasletts o-coor) and s.f. o-coor(wow, doesnt say much). as far as favre getting shut out last week, well, they are that bad and favre is no longer that good..custer was a good general, but got old and was outmanned..the rest is history!!!the saints are a much better team than green bay...slaughter!!!!!!!!!!!

[rightsideup]

what does

what does losing last week have to do with being very bad and being totally outmanned..i dont follow the logic behind a team playing better the next week because they were shut out the week before...if i raced reggie bush 10 times last sunday and was shut out(lost all 10 races), well, i will certainly run harder to try and beat him this week, but guess what, it wouldnt matter.. he would still crush me....if you dont have bullets, you can have as many guns as you want, but you aint going to win the gunfight

[JDK192]

Green Bay isn't as bad as they played last week. Their defense definately isn't. New Orleans aren't as good as they played last week. No play for me but if I had to take it I'd have to go with the home dog in this situation.

[Dark Horse]

RSU, if NO wins I'm happy for you. It's certainly possible. You just don't want to see the stat in favor of teams coming off being shut out (and unfortunately I can't find it right now). Being shut out is a huge motivation to bounce back. Just trying to show that this is far from a lock. If only because there are no locks. - GL

[rightsideup]

i think

it is a big motivational factor,(being shut out),but, i look at both of these teams, talent wise and my goodness, the saints have so much talent on offense....three pro-bowlers and bush and green bay has a 36 year old brett favre...i am a huge favre fan, but i dont think he has the magic anymore.. no wide receivers and an old beat up ahman green with a bad o-line...if it were the jets or the titans or someone of that nature, you wouldnt care less if they were shut out or not because you would know that they could be shut out again....i think, in reality, the only place that we differ is.....>>>>i honestly think that green bay is actually that damn bad..bad defense, bad recevers,bad o-line(they were terrible last year), bad defense and most of all a bad coach!!!remember, green bay was 4-12 last year and have improved nothing..so how can they not be BAD?????? mike shermans 4-12 is probably a 2-14 mike mcarthy....

[freeneasy]

iam going to be looking to go against gb all year.
as the season goes on they will probably pick up a few more points then they deserve and i dont think its really going to matter.
gb is bad and they are going to stay bad and your going to see them get 9,10,12,13 points on a regular basis and when they do and when everybody goes ouuuuuuuuuuuu thats a lot of points to be giving any kind of a pro team, you know what? it aint gonna matter cause your probably going to see gb get beat by 2 touchdowns on a regular basis.

[Dark Horse]

Found the stat.

Teams off a shutout home loss are 21-6 ATS when playing a team of a SUATS win. This improves to 14-1 ATS against a non-division opponent.

[darkghost]

I'm on GB on this one. Basically a team shutout at home and playing again at home is a good play particularly early in the season when the team knows it doesn't want to start off 0-2 & look bad two weeks in a row in front of its fans. Good stats, DH. I guess your stats somewhat validate my play.

[slacker00]

Good discussion, guys!

I'm on NO. I'm not taking GB until the interior offensive linemen prove that they can block ANYBODY. Rookie guard Colledge replaces another nameless guard Spitz this week. Colledge was terrible in preseason.

[slacker00]

Packers look sharp. Defense forces a fumble on the NO 38, then Favre TD to Jennings on 3rd & 8. GB 7 NO 0

[slacker00]

Holy Christ. Brees fumbles again, Packers recover on NO 12.

Starting to look like last year's 60-3 blowout! lmao

[crackerjack]

Good call rightsideup. Please just don't use the words lock when posting your picks...it's amateurish. I loved NO too until you called them your lock of the year and I lowered my wager.

[Illusion]

Excellent call rightsideup.

[slacker00]

Nice call, whoever picked the Saints. Hard to believe all of those Brees turnovers and they still win by a TD.

[McBa1n]

Read my write ups on the Pack, guys. I believe that not many bettors follow them as closely as i do nor for as long. I live/breath/eat Packer football. Fading them has eased my pain as they've gone from contender to bottom 3 (probably 2 - the Raiders really stink).

Good job to everyone that had the Saints... But man, that was a game GB easily could've had. Their offensive line is just so bad, not even indiana jones can save them. Seeing so many on GB this week was surprising to me. If you've watched their games (preseason included),you'd know what I'm talking about.

Tennesee's BACKUPS manhandled our starting offensive line in the preseason (I know it doesn't count, but you sure learn a lot about the makeup of a line), if that gives you any idea of how bad they are right now.

[rightsideup]

hey,crackerjack

i find it funny that, because i called it a lock, you say that this sounded amateurish....if that is amateurish, then what do you call "i lowered my bet because you used the word lock"!!!???thats the goofiest thing i have ever heard of....do you think that by me calling the game a lock, it affected the score!!??if you lowered your bet for that reason,then your reason for liking the saints in the first place must have been quite weak!!! i cant believe that you would lower the amount of your bet because of something i said! that is mind boggling...using the word "lock" is not literal, it is a euphamism for "man, i really,really,really like the saints in this game""

[crackerjack]

It's called superstition. Of course what you said has no bearing on the outcome of the game, but I am superstitious enough (maybe to a fault) that when I here some amateur spouting off about a "lock of the year" I pull back a little. Whether that's silly or stupid or whatever I can't help it. I've just seen enough rookies like you come into forums like this claiming they've found the lock of the year only to see the other side win that caution got the best of me. I am not blaming you for my actions, I am just letting you know that calling a game a lock of the year shows your rookie-ness...

[rightsideup]

hey, cracker

the one one with the larger gambling fault would seem to be you in this situation..i am a rookie to this site and am very glad i found it because it lets me in on the pulse of other gamblers..but, i was a bookmaker for 14 years and i have seen locks come and go..i dont book anymore due to the hundreds of mules. i actually enjoy betting on this side, i really enjoy it. but as far as a rookie (i think not) and as far as your "superstition" well, just read some tarot cards if you are superstitious....but there is no handicapper of any merit that would ever admit to lowering a bet because someone else called the game a lock..and also assuming that one is a rookie because he used the word lock!!! EUPHAMISM!!!!! you know hat? in hindsight, it was a lock!!!lmao......good luck in your endeavors...o, 1 more question...???if you lowerd your bet, because i called the team you liked a"lock", does this mean if you had liked the other team, that you would have raised your bet???