Mudcat NFL picks - week 3

[Mudcat]

I've never done much posting of picks but what the hell. I'm just going to check 4 books for these:

tenn/STL UN 45.5 +100 (intertops)
oak/PHI UN 46 +101 (Pinn)
no/MINN UN 45 -104 (mans)
cle +14.5 +103 (Mans)
cle/IND UN 47 -105 (Pinn)
az/SEA UN 42 -104 (Pinn)
ne/PITT UN 42 +100 (Mans)
dal/SF UN 40.5 -101 (Mans)
nyg/SD UN 43 +100 (Pinn)
kc/DEN UN 47.5 -109 (Pinn)

[Todd]

Goodluck Mudcat

[OldeTymePlaya]

Thats interesting. Loading up on the unders.

Good luck

[Relentless]

Scoring was back up today it seems, kind of along the lines of your earlier thinking.

[Relentless]

Mudcat, I get the feeling that you base these plays on statistics? If so, do you feel there is enough data after 2 weeks? Or is this some other angle?

I usually wait till week 5 for my statistical systems to kick in for football myself.

[Mudcat]

Mudcat, I get the feeling that you base these plays on statistics? If so, do you feel there is enough data after 2 weeks? Or is this some other angle?

I usually wait till week 5 for my statistical systems to kick in for football myself.

Yes I do base the plays on statistics. My system for unders has been extremely reliable for a good 20 years. It is normally fine to start in week 3, as are my NFL pointspread angles (which only produced that one bet on Cleveland this week). My research shows that week 3's have been very profitable over the years.

This year the NFL got off to a freakishly low-scoring start though. If ever there was a year I thought about waiting - or at least wimping out a bit and just grabbing the most extreme cases - this was it. I talked about that with BuddyBear.

But I played aggressively. Hopefully the last 2 games of the week can come through for me.