Need one NCAA Upset pick

[kalmikrazy]

For a number of years now a 12 seed has upset a #5.

Who if any do you guys see this year?

5 Syracuse
12 Texas A&M

5 Pittsburgh
12 Kent St.

5 Washington
12 Utah St.


5 Nevada
12 Montana


Im liking Utah St or Montana.

[isetcap]

Texas A&M

Syracuse at a 5 seed is absurd. Before the Big East tournament they weren't even going to the dance.

[Razz]

People in Norman have relegated Bob Stoops to president status? When I was there two years ago, he was slightly above God.

My estimated % of a SU win

Texas A&M 50%
Kent St. 45%
Utah St. 45%
Montana 35%

[The Great One]

I think this will be a year when there are many upsets. Most of the lower seed are teams that have been here in years past.

I'd say the potentially biggest upset this year would be Winthrop vs. Tennessee. I think the game will come down to the wire. It's a bad match-up for the Vols. who got a veeerrry favorable seed.

[kalmikrazy]

After back to back losses in the BIG one Stoops was demoted....LOL

[isetcap]

I think this will be a year when there are many upsets. Most of the lower seed are teams that have been here in years past.

I'd say the potentially biggest upset this year would be Winthrop vs. Tennessee. I think the game will come down to the wire. It's a bad match-up for the Vols. who got a veeerrry favorable seed.

Utterly astounding that Tennessee received a 2 seed. Perhaps this year's greatest NCCA Committee fraud. Having said that, I don't see this matchup as any difficulty at all for Tennessee. Their athleticism overwhelms lesser teams. Tennessee has problems with teams that match their athleticism because they play with less confidence.

[Knoxy]

Syracuse at a 5 seed is absurd. Before the Big East tournament they weren't even going to the dance.

True, but they are white hot right now. Too many of us still think of them as the team that got crushed by DePaul.

Looking for Utah St. to pull it off this year.

[bigboydan]

i was thinking that Kent St might have the best shot.

[imgv94]

Texas A&M is the only 12th seed thats going to win.

[isetcap]

Texas A&M is the only 12th seed thats going to win.

Correct.

[Razz]

Texas A&M is the only 12th seed thats going to win.

Incorrect.

[maritime]

I like Utah State to win.
And Kent State plus the points.
A&M is a pretty trendy pick right now.

[imgv94]

Incorrect.

Explain bud?

[imgv94]

i was thinking that Kent St might have the best shot.

Kent St has no chance against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is
better than W.Virginia and W.Virginia is even better
than Kent state. Pittsburgh is a very solid team
and Gray is going to kill Kent st

[isetcap]

Kent State is the least likely of the 12 seeds to advance. Pittsburgh will genuinely dominate them. There won't be any..."well if this call had been made or he hadn't missed those free throws"...type discussion for that matchup.

[Jay Edgar]

1* (839) Kent St. +6 +101
0.5* (839) Kent St. ML +228

Should be interesting . . .

[imgv94]

Kent State is the least likely of the 12 seeds to advance. Pittsburgh will genuinely dominate them. There won't be any..."well if this call had been made or he hadn't missed those free throws"...type discussion for that matchup.

Words from a genius! A hustler! someone who is
on his way to being a millionare. isetcap. my friend.

[Razz]

Explain bud?

Sure.

Let's start with the Utah St./Washington matchup, which I believe is the best potential upset of the first round (don't really consider A&M an upset, and think that game is 50/50 anyways). The main reason I love the Aggies to certainly cover, and I believe win outright, is that Utah St. is one of the best defensive teams in the nation. The Aggies have given up 65 or fewer (regulation) points in 21 of 31 games this season.
They also have people who can put the ball in the basket. Utah St. is 4th nationally in FG%, and they face a terrible defensive team in Washington, who have given up 65+ points in 23 of 30 games. That defensive differential is hard to ignore, especially with an underdog.
Utah St. plays almost the exact same style as Washington St., who swept Washington by scores of 78-71 and 77-64. The difference is that Utah St. has better players, and more experience. The Aggies come in playing well, while Washington comes in playing poorly. There could be a little of the lookahead factor as well.

The other upset that I feel is likely to happen is Kent St. over Pittsburgh. Here we have a highly overvalued Pittsburgh team that better bring their full focus to Michigan for this game.
This game is going to be a defensive struggle. It wouldn't surprise me if the winning team scored less than 60 points. That is part of the reason why I like Kent + the points, but as for why I think they have a very good chance to win the game:
Kent has only one player remaining from the team that made the Elite 8 a couple seasons ago, but they have the talent and system to be a Cinderalla again this season. This team is relentless defensively, and won't be bullied by Pitt's physical play. If anything, the Golden Flashes will encourage it.
Let's be honest. Pitt is not a great team. They would have lost to WVU in the Big East tournament if Gansey doesn't get hurt, and may have lost to Villanova in the next game if Ray doesn't get hurt.
But here's the key. Other than Krauser, this team has no key player that is used to pressure situations. How many games did Pitt play away from home out of conference? Two. They beat a terrible Duquesne team, and won at a South Carolina team that was playing poorly at the time.
Kent has better shooters here, and I could see them getting out to a good start against an erratic Pitt team, and coasting to victory.

[imgv94]

Thank you Razz you made some excellent points and will consider
everything you said when decision time comes. Thanks for being
alive.