what do you guys think?

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  • stingyrivers
    SBR MVP
    • 01-15-08
    • 1240

    #1
    what do you guys think?
    got a prop at my book.....

    Will a 14, 15 or 16 seed win a game?

    yes -125

    no +100


    this is essentially the same as a ML Parlay on all the 1 2 3 seeds, except the payout by the prop would be better....

    i am thinking of going kind of large on betting NO.....

    what are the realistic chances of this cashing??

    in the past 6 years, 1 2 3 seeds are 70 - 2 SU

    the obvious worry in the bet is whether UGA continues it's miracle run and sneaks up on Xavier, the only good thing about that is it is the first game in the tourney, so you would know the answer to that right away

    like i said i am thinking of staking a large portion of my roll on this prop, would appreciate your feedback?
  • WestsidePete
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-19-07
    • 8049

    #2
    what is the payout on this one...12 team ml parlay instead of the prop bet?? the same??
    Comment
    • stingyrivers
      SBR MVP
      • 01-15-08
      • 1240

      #3
      no.... best i can figure ML parlay is about -105
      Comment
      • stingyrivers
        SBR MVP
        • 01-15-08
        • 1240

        #4
        greek hasnt put up ML for UCLA or Memphis, but the other ten calculate to -108.... anyone got ML for UCLA and Memphis??

        i wouldnt mind just doing a big ML Parlay on all the ML for 1, 2 and 3 seeds leaving out xavier, as long as the payout is at least 80 per 100
        Comment
        • diogee
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-11-08
          • 19477

          #5
          Memphis is -8000 but nothing on UCLA
          Comment
          • WestsidePete
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 07-19-07
            • 8049

            #6
            Originally posted by stingyrivers
            greek hasnt put up ML for UCLA or Memphis, but the other ten calculate to -108.... anyone got ML for UCLA and Memphis??

            i wouldnt mind just doing a big ML Parlay on all the ML for 1, 2 and 3 seeds leaving out xavier, as long as the payout is at least 80 per 100
            I like the play may do this myself
            Comment
            • myr10
              SBR Sharp
              • 01-20-08
              • 483

              #7
              ucla is -16000 at diamond and -30000 at 5 dimes
              Comment
              • rjt721
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 02-06-07
                • 7929

                #8
                Interesting bet.

                UGA over Xavier is the one I think many would point to as the most likely upset, but I don't see it. Xavier's a very experienced, well-balanced team that I think makes a deep run in the tourney.

                Wisky's always susceptible to an upset considering their lack of overall talent, but CS Fullerton isn't disciplined enough to beat them. Wisky might force 25 turnovers in this game.

                Cornell can hang with Stanford for a bit if they're on from the perimeter, but the Lopez twins will destroy them and Stanford will pull away eventually.

                I can't see any other 1, 2, or 3 seed having any trouble in the opening round.

                I like 'No' +100.

                Good luck.
                Comment
                • myr10
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 01-20-08
                  • 483

                  #9
                  12 team ml parlay with all 1,2,3 seeds at 5 dimes pays out at -115
                  Comment
                  • stingyrivers
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-15-08
                    • 1240

                    #10
                    wow.... maybe i shouldnt have let the cat outta the bag.... did u guys hit the prop bet hard at the greek????

                    all of a sudden no is at -120
                    Comment
                    • imgv94
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-16-05
                      • 17192

                      #11
                      The only one that concerns me is Xavier.. Can't imagine the other ones losing. Stanford is going to tap that ass.. yep
                      Comment
                      • WestsidePete
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 07-19-07
                        • 8049

                        #12
                        Originally posted by imgv94
                        The only one that concerns me is Xavier.. Can't imagine the other ones losing. Stanford is going to tap that ass.. yep
                        I agree...I have placed Xavier to win this one on my bracket but with my money can't add them here...need to see Georgia lose...
                        Comment
                        • stingyrivers
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-15-08
                          • 1240

                          #13
                          ok.... now there is no value in the prop bet


                          might roll with this, whattdya think guys?


                          Kansas
                          Duke
                          Texas
                          Tenn
                          UNC
                          Gtown
                          Wisc
                          Stanf
                          Lville
                          Uconn

                          pays at -125
                          Comment
                          • imgv94
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 11-16-05
                            • 17192

                            #14
                            stingy my man what book is this Greek?

                            I just might get me a piece of that. Only -125?
                            Comment
                            • stingyrivers
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-15-08
                              • 1240

                              #15
                              yup at the greek gv.....


                              lay 100 wins 77
                              Comment
                              • stingyrivers
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-15-08
                                • 1240

                                #16
                                its actually -127

                                but i am scratchin my head too, i can't see any of these teams losing, might drop a lot on this bet
                                Comment
                                • stingyrivers
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-15-08
                                  • 1240

                                  #17
                                  kicking myself now, it actually payed even better yesterday, since then the Uconn line went from -700 to -850.... shoulda locked it in then
                                  Comment
                                  • WestsidePete
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 07-19-07
                                    • 8049

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by stingyrivers
                                    ok.... now there is no value in the prop bet


                                    might roll with this, whattdya think guys?


                                    Kansas
                                    Duke
                                    Texas
                                    Tenn
                                    UNC
                                    Gtown
                                    Wisc
                                    Stanf
                                    Lville
                                    Uconn

                                    pays at -125
                                    solid...book it...
                                    Comment
                                    • imgv94
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 11-16-05
                                      • 17192

                                      #19
                                      Let's do it guys.. Fuk it we are a team and I'm rolling with my crew here..
                                      Comment
                                      • stingyrivers
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-15-08
                                        • 1240

                                        #20
                                        thanks....

                                        ok, i am officially dropping roughly 30% of my roll on this play.... root for em fellas
                                        Comment
                                        • WestsidePete
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 07-19-07
                                          • 8049

                                          #21
                                          I added mem and ucla ml as well on this play
                                          Comment
                                          • diogee
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 01-11-08
                                            • 19477

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by stingyrivers
                                            thanks....

                                            ok, i am officially dropping roughly 30% of my roll on this play.... root for em fellas
                                            Whoa going huge I see...best of luck Stingy. Cash that sucker and increase your roll
                                            Comment
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