The Official BabaORiley Tourney Thread

[babaoriley]

Following the lead of many others, I thought I'd lend my 2 cents so I present the thread in which I pick against the spread of every game. If you're here to flame, flame away.
Thursday 3/20/08
Xavier -8.5
Portland St +23
Temple +7.5
Marquette -6.5
Purdue -3
Oral Roberts +9
Cornell +14.5
Belmont +20
Winthrop +9.5
Cal Fullerton +11.5
Notre Dame -6.5
UCLA -32 (this is just ridiculous)
BYU -1.5
AZ +2
Kent St -2
USC -3

My plays so far are:
7 point teaser:
Pitt -1.5, Xavier -1.5, UNC -18
USC -2.5
Winthrop +9.5
Cornell +14.5
BYU +2
Sienna +7
Drake -4
Arkansas +1
Davidson -2
Mississippi St. -2.5
Texas -15
St. Joe's +1.5
UMDB +17
Portland St. +25

ML parlays coming tomorrow, though I'm taking my daughter to the zoo tomorrow AM and may not get them posted before I leave. Out of the early games, Xavier, Marquette and Pitt are being considered.

[OLGC_Slayer]

Good luck my man.

[Quebb Diesel]

texas winning it all baba?!?!

[diogee]

Good luck Baba

[babaoriley]

texas winning it all baba?!?!

They got a raw draw in Stanford in the Sweet 16, though they got the 1 seed that they matchup with the best. They have a shot, but in the end, I think they just miss out. Let me just say that I'm a Marquette fan on Sunday.

[babaoriley]

OLGC, diogee, Quebb... Best of luck to all of you. Truly hope you all come out on top.

[Quebb Diesel]

They got a raw draw in Stanford in the Sweet 16, though they got the 1 seed that they matchup with the best. They have a shot, but in the end, I think they just miss out. Let me just say that I'm a Marquette fan on Sunday.

i actually have marquette upsetting stanford in the second round...they are motivated and got screwed the entire game in MSG against pitt...worst officiated bball game ive seen in a loooong time...im taking texas all the way due to the pretty much home court advantage the entire tourney...

[BuddyBear]

Good luck man....i know you'll be glued to the TV tomorrow!

[babaoriley]

Good luck man....i know you'll be glued to the TV tomorrow!

Thanks Buddy. As soon as I get back from the zoo, it's me, my beer and the NCAA tourney package, rotating as swiftly as possible between games. Always my favorite weekend of the year and this year I turn 30 during it. Sweet!

[babaoriley]

Following the lead of many others, I thought I'd lend my 2 cents so I present the thread in which I pick against the spread of every game. If you're here to flame, flame away.
Thursday 3/20/08
Xavier -8.5
Portland St +23 though see below
Temple +7.5
Marquette -6.5
Purdue -3
Oral Roberts +9
Cornell +14.5
Belmont +20
Winthrop +9.5
Cal Fullerton +11.5
Notre Dame -6.5
UCLA -32 (this is just ridiculous)
BYU -1.5
AZ +2
Kent St -2
USC -3

My plays so far are:
7 point teaser:
Pitt -1.5, Xavier -1.5, UNC -18
USC -2.5
Winthrop +9.5
Cornell +14.5
BYU +2
Sienna +7
Drake -4
Arkansas +1
Davidson -2
Mississippi St. -2.5
Texas -15
St. Joe's +1.5
UMDB +17
Portland St. +25

ML parlays coming tomorrow, though I'm taking my daughter to the zoo tomorrow AM and may not get them posted before I leave. Out of the early games, Xavier, Marquette and Pitt are being considered.

Geez, pretty brutal day. Though please note that I pounced on Portland St. at 25 as my wager (I listed all spreads as of last night when posting them and I'll do the same later tonight). 'll finish up on this later.

[babaoriley]

6-10 ATS tonight... 7-9 if you counted my early line on PSU...

OK, here's tomorrow:
Tenn -19
Davidson -1.5
W. KY +4 (even though I have a play the other way)
S. Bama +4.5
UMDB- +17
UCONN -11.5
Texas -15
UNC -25
Siena +7
Louisville -13.5
Miami +1
Oklahoma -1 (again, I'm already playing the other way sadly)
Miss St. -2.5 (probably my biggest play of the tourney)
Arkansas +2
Memphis -25
Nova +6.5

[babaoriley]

6-10 ATS tonight... 7-9 if you counted my early line on PSU...

OK, here's tomorrow:
Tenn -19
Davidson -1.5
W. KY +4 (even though I have a play the other way)
S. Bama +4.5
UMDB- +17
UCONN -11.5
Texas -15
UNC -25
Siena +7
Louisville -13.5
Miami +1
Oklahoma -1 (again, I'm already playing the other way sadly)
Miss St. -2.5 (probably my biggest play of the tourney)
Arkansas +2
Memphis -25
Nova +6.5

Much better day... 11-5 though 2 of the losses were by 1 point on 17+ point spreads. Very close to 13-3 today.

[diogee]

Nice job today Baba.

[babaoriley]

thanks diogee. Final calculations are in and I won approx 6.5 units today.
Thanks to Mississippi St. players and coaches. I had faith.

[OLGC_Slayer]

Good job bro.

[babaoriley]

Thanks OLGC...

Total for the first round: 17-15 if you count my late line on Port ST. 18-14 if you count the early line that I played.

Saturday picks:
WV +4
Wisc -4.5
Xavier -3
ND +2.5
Marquette +3
UNLV +13.5
Pitt -2.5
A&M +10.5 (though this goes against my well documented "play every favorite at -10.5 spreads blindly" rule)

My plays:
Pitt -2.5
Marquette ML
Xavier -3
ND ML
ML Parlay (approx -115): KU, Wisky, UCLA
7 Pt. teaser: Marquette +10, K. St. +11.5, UCLA -3

[babaoriley]

Thanks OLGC...

Total for the first round: 17-15 if you count my late line on Port ST. 18-14 if you count the early line that I played.

Saturday picks:
WV +4
Wisc -4.5
Xavier -3
ND +2.5
Marquette +3
UNLV +13.5
Pitt -2.5
A&M +10.5 (though this goes against my well documented "play every favorite at -10.5 spreads blindly" rule)

My plays:
Pitt -2.5
Marquette ML
Xavier -3
ND ML
ML Parlay (approx -115): KU, Wisky, UCLA
7 Pt. teaser: Marquette +10, K. St. +11.5, UCLA -3

'

5-3 today. Really think I'll hit 6-2 tomorrow. I never advise blindly tailing, but I think I have my head around this now.

[OLGC_Slayer]

You're on fire brother.

[babaoriley]

16-8 since watching that first crapper of a day.

Sunday Picks:
Nova -5
Texas -6.5
Tenn -4.5
Oklahoma +7
Arkansas +10.5
Gtown -4.5 (on the fence)
San Diego +5.5 (ditto)

And finally, the one game that I've tried to overthink in every possible way:
Memphis-Miss St. Breakdown:
Memphis against tourney teams:
11/15 Oklahoma (Neutral) W-10 (cover)
11/16 UConn (Neutral) W-11 (cover)
11/27 Austin Peay W-22 (Push)
12/04 USC (Neutral) W-4 (No Cover)
12/22 G-town W-14 (Cover)
12/29 Arizona W-13 (Cover)
1/03 Siena W-44 (Cover)
1/26 Gonzaga W-12 (No Cover as line was 13)
2/23 Tennessee L-4 (No cover)
Totals: 8-1 straight up, 5-3-1 ATS
Miss St vs. tourney teams:
11/15 Clemson L-2 (No Cover)
12/15 @S. Bama L-4 (No cover)
12/13 Miami FL L-6 (No Cover)
1/12 Georgia W-11 (Cover)
1/15 Kentucky W-5 (No cover)
2/16 @ Arkansas L-20 (No Cover)
3/5 @ Vandy L-1 (No Cover)
3/15 Georgia (N) L by 4 (No Cover)
Totals: 2-6 Straight Up 1-7 ATS

Pick: Memphis -9, as they are they only 1 seed to cover in the 2nd round

Feels Chalky, huh? Yeah, it does to me too.

Plays (All for an alarming 3 units each):
ML Parlay (+166):
Texas, Memphis, Tennessee, UNC

ML Parlay (-117)
Texas, Nova

Texas -6.5
Nova -5.5

[babaoriley]

Adding: Memphis -9 for 1 unit
Memphis Over 137 for 1 unit

[Louisvillekid1]

Gl bro

[Ship It!]

Damn, thought you had the Texas cover but they left the backdoor open.

[babaoriley]

Damn, thought you had the Texas cover but they left the backdoor open.

Missed Ft's killed UT today. KILLED 'EM. At least they won, but that cover was in the bag.

[babaoriley]

16-8 since watching that first crapper of a day.

Sunday Picks:
Nova -5
Texas -6.5
Tenn -4.5
Oklahoma +7
Arkansas +10.5
Gtown -4.5 (on the fence)
San Diego +5.5 (ditto)

And finally, the one game that I've tried to overthink in every possible way:
Memphis-Miss St. Breakdown:
Memphis against tourney teams:
11/15 Oklahoma (Neutral) W-10 (cover)
11/16 UConn (Neutral) W-11 (cover)
11/27 Austin Peay W-22 (Push)
12/04 USC (Neutral) W-4 (No Cover)
12/22 G-town W-14 (Cover)
12/29 Arizona W-13 (Cover)
1/03 Siena W-44 (Cover)
1/26 Gonzaga W-12 (No Cover as line was 13)
2/23 Tennessee L-4 (No cover)
Totals: 8-1 straight up, 5-3-1 ATS
Miss St vs. tourney teams:
11/15 Clemson L-2 (No Cover)
12/15 @S. Bama L-4 (No cover)
12/13 Miami FL L-6 (No Cover)
1/12 Georgia W-11 (Cover)
1/15 Kentucky W-5 (No cover)
2/16 @ Arkansas L-20 (No Cover)
3/5 @ Vandy L-1 (No Cover)
3/15 Georgia (N) L by 4 (No Cover)
Totals: 2-6 Straight Up 1-7 ATS

Pick: Memphis -9, as they are they only 1 seed to cover in the 2nd round

Feels Chalky, huh? Yeah, it does to me too.

Plays (All for an alarming 3 units each):
ML Parlay (+166):
Texas, Memphis, Tennessee, UNC

ML Parlay (-117)
Texas, Nova

Texas -6.5 (UT was the right side. Those missed FT's are atypical of UT and that ending was just atrocious. UT dominated that entire game, just as I thought they would. Up 16 with 4:12 left, Up 13 with 2:34 left, then all hell breaks lose:
A) Some bogus f*cking calls in that last 2:30 or so led to 8 Miami FT's (all were made)
B) UT at the stripe in that last 2:30---Atchley misses the front end of a 1 & 1, then goes 1 for 2 his next trip to the stripe. James goes 1-4 from the line and Augustin airballs a FT. All told, UT was 12-21 (57.1%) from the line to Miami's 19-22 (86.4%), and a game in which UT dominated for its entirety was covered by Miami via a wide open back door. By the way, UT is a 69% FT shooting team for the season. Miami is 74%. A 12% point swing downward for UT and a 12% swing upward for Miami created this cover.
Nova -5.5

I broke even on the Memphis plays (see the post above), which were 1 unit plays each. (Ironically, Memphis blew their cover through shoddy FT shooting too. Difference being, I knew they sucked badly from the stripe all year). So...

+4.98* on the Memphis/UT/Tenn/UNC parlay
+3* on the Nova/Texas parlay
+3* on Nova side
-3* on Texas side
-.1* on Memphis bets
Up 7.97* today

HUGE F'in day for me. And thanks to a PM from Ship IT!, I put a half unit on a parlay of the Spurs ML (+160)/Under after telling him that would be my play if I was betting NBA today.

[rjt721]

Great work today. Keep it up, baba.

[babaoriley]

Sorry I'm late but I just got home from running a variety of errands:
Pretty sure that these picks are documented in other threads, but here (were) my picks for today:

Xavier +1.5
UNC (I don;t think this one was documented on here before tip, so I won't call this) one. I'm on UNC ML in many plays, but really didn't prefer a side)
Tenn +3--I think L-ville wins however. Weird, huh?
W. KT- +12-- UCLA wins but doesn't cover.

My plays:
ML parlay: GS/DEN/UNC
7 point tease: UNC -1.5/Xavier +8.5/Stanford +9
Xavier +105 ML
W. Ktky +12
WV/Xavier +135.5

Sorry to post these late, but I had no access to the computer and I'm tracking all my tourney plays.

[babaoriley]

Sorry I'm late but I just got home from running a variety of errands:
Pretty sure that these picks are documented in other threads, but here (were) my picks for today:

Xavier +1.5
UNC (I don;t think this one was documented on here before tip, so I won't call this) one. I'm on UNC ML in many plays, but really didn't prefer a side)
Tenn +3--I think L-ville wins however. Weird, huh?
W. KT- +12-- UCLA wins but doesn't cover.

My plays:
ML parlay: GS/DEN/UNC
7 point tease: UNC -1.5/Xavier +8.5/Stanford +9
Xavier +105 ML
W. Ktky +12
WV/Xavier +135.5

Sorry to post these late, but I had no access to the computer and I'm tracking all my tourney plays.

Good night again. If Stanford keeps it in single digits, that's a perfect card.

[OLGC_Slayer]

Nice job brotha!

[JGray1]

nice work baba hook em horns

[babaoriley]

Thanks OLGC and JGray.
My picks for today are:

Nova +12.5
Wisky -4.5
Memphis -4.5
And I'm picking this one with my heart instead of my head:
UT -2 (though in all honesty I think UT is in trouble)

I'll post my plays in a little bit.

EDIT: A couple plays:
Memphis/Wisky ML parlay at +112
Nova +12.5
And then I have that Stanford +9 dangling as the last part of a 3-team teaser from yesterday... Otherwise, I think I'm staying away from that UT game altogether, though I may play the Over.

[JGray1]

You just a fan like all fans you assume the worse, I like texas tonite dont fret the horns get it done, good luck

[babaoriley]

Adding more plays for today to round out my card, so attached is my full card:
1* Stanford/UT Over 133
1/2* parlay (+600) SA -12, Nova-KU Over 144, Texas -2 (note: this is the only way I'd play UT--small and with potentially large payout)
1.5* tease SA -5, Wisky +2, UT +5 (they'll keep it close at least)
3* Nova/KU +144
2* Memphis/MSU Under 135.5 (strictly a "ride the hot hand of LT play)
2* Wisky/Memphis ML parlay (+112)
2* Nova +12.5
2* Memphis -4.5
2* Wisky -4.5
And to close out a 3-team tease (see yesterday's plays), I need Stanford +9 (a 2* play)

[babaoriley]

P.S. No 1H wagers, but I'll be keeping a close eye on 2H wagers, particularly the Spurs, UT, and Nova games.

[babaoriley]

Adding more plays for today to round out my card, so attached is my full card:
1* Stanford/UT Over 133
1/2* parlay (+600) SA -12, Nova-KU Over 144, Texas -2 (note: this is the only way I'd play UT--small and with potentially large payout)
1.5* tease SA -5, Wisky +2, UT +5 (they'll keep it close at least)
3* Nova/KU +144
2* Memphis/MSU Under 135.5 (strictly a "ride the hot hand of LT play)
2* Wisky/Memphis ML parlay (+112)
2* Nova +12.5
2* Memphis -4.5
2* Wisky -4.5
And to close out a 3-team tease (see yesterday's plays), I need Stanford +9 (a 2* play)

'

Yuck.