Tourney Plays

[rjt721]

Going to put all my action for the tourneys (including NIT) in this thread. Been a pretty poor college hoops season for me that’s lacked any consistency – non-conference play was pretty good, conference play was dreadful, conference tourneys were very strong. All in all, I’ve needed a 11-2 stretch in my L13 to turn the slightest profit on the season.

Thursday:

3* Baylor/Purdue Over 140.5
2* USC -2.5
2* Temple/Michigan St. Under 135.5
1* BYU +2
1* Winthrop/Wazzou Under 112.5
1* G. Mason/ND Under 142
1* Southern Illinois/Arizona St. Under 116 (NIT)

Friday:

2* Siena +7
2* St. Joe’s +1.5
2* Mississippi State -2 -115
1* St. Mary’s +1
1* Arkansas +1.5
1* Austin Peay/Texas Over 139.5
1* Villanova/Clemson Over 144

[OLGC_Slayer]

Good luck my brother.

[rjt721]

Thanks man. Best of luck to you as well.

[diogee]

Good luck through out the tourney RJT

[BuddyBear]

I don't really have any opinion on the totals but on the sides I like Miss State but the -2 is long gone for me so I won't play it. I am really indifferent toward the others. I'd like to back BYU (as well as UNLV), but the Mountain West is pretty dreadful so I am not going to play them. Also, the WCC is really really bad. The top 3 are okay, but the bottom is just plain awful. I would fade all 3 WCC teams before I played on them and unfortunately they all play Friday so I can't get an early read on the conference.

I haven't even started looking yet for my plays. Just going to see what lines have been bet up and fade them.

Good luck...

[BuddyBear]

I know the Winthrop/WSU is a trendy under pick...but even that under is too low. These days, the oddsmakers are lowering the totals by 4-5 points. A few years ago that under would have been 117/118 but now you are seeing it 112. Even though both teams slow it down, WSU is very capable of scoring and should be able to score on a Big South team like Winthrop. In addition, I expect WSU to cover that spread and if that is the case I would also expect it to go over. But I don't know...WSU games can go either way with the total.

Good luck...

[rjt721]

Diogee,

Best of luck with all your plays.

BB,

You can still find Miss. St. -2 at Matchbook.

Point taken on the WCC (I'd even argue that after the Zags and Mary's the caliber in that conference dramatically falls off, as SD was extremely fortunate to get a bid by virtue of the conf. tourney being played on their home floor). However, I don't think this should be held against St. Mary's, and I'm inclined to think this team is pretty good. They had some very impressive non-conference Ws, beating Oregon, Seton Hall, SDSU, Ohio and Drake. The Drake win, in particular, looks more and more impressive each day given the ease with which Drake ripped through the MVC. I actually look at the ACC the same way you described the WCC - being top heavy, but very poor after the top teams, in this case UNC, Duke and Clemson. To me, there's a reason Miami was picked by most to finish at the bottom of the conference. As a result of BC and UVA being one-man teams, NC State being arguably the worst-coached team in the country, GT being young, etc., they moved up into a position to get an at-large bid, but I don't see them as being a tourney quality team. Furthermore, in Mills and Simpson I think Mary's has the two best players on the court in this game.

As for the Wazzou total, there's obviously not much margin for error with a total that low, but I think Winthrop has a difficult time reaching 50. Despite their modest point totals, Wazzou's a very efficient offensive team (easily in the top 1/5 in the country in FG%). The problem is, when you average only 60 offensive possessions per game, you can easily shoot 50+% from the field and still be left with a sub 60 pt. output, something I see being quite possible Thursday given the opponent. Winthrop's 298th in possessions per game, Wazzou 334th out of 341 D-1 teams. With a game to likely feature so few possessions, both teams will have to shoot at a respectable clip to surpass 112.5. WSU's capable, but I'm not sure Winthrop will be against the best defensive team they've seen this season. I'm thinking a 58-47 type game. We'll see.

As always, best of luck to you, BB.

[WestsidePete]

GL RJT,


Like the Baylor over, USC, and St Joe's plays....

[imgv94]

rjt,

You know you are one of my favs here or anywhere.. Anyway you and I tend to agree a lot and nothing has changed here. You will be finding me on USC-Siena and Mississippi St..

GL my brother if anyone deserves a big run it's you. Tap that ass

[rjt721]

WSP and IMGV,

Thanks. Hope you guys are both having big days.

Saturday

2* Xavier -3

[Cee]

good day so far, top play smashed. I need usc ml, let's do this.

[rjt721]

Thursday: 4-2-1, +3.7

[moses millsap]

Nice job, I was sweating out those unders with Mich State and Wazzou games myself.

[rjt721]

Yeah, tell me about it. Tough to have a team put up 11 pts. in a half and still be seating out the under, but Wazzou wouldn't miss the last 10 min.

[rjt721]

Friday: 3-3-1, +.6

Tourney: 7-5-2, +4.3

[rjt721]

7-5-2, +4.3

Saturday

2* Xavier -3
2* Texas A&M +10.5
2* Michigan State/Pitt Under 132

Probably Notre Dame as well.

[rjt721]

1* A&M/UCLA Under 125
1* Notre Dame ML +142

Final Saturday card:

2* Xavier -3
2* A&M +10.5
2* MSU/PITT Under 132
1* A&M/UCLA Under 125
1* ND +142

[nevadaside]

GL today rj, hope you have a HUGE day!

Like your plays, will be on most of them now as it looks like WV+4 is gonna cash for me.
Really like that MSU/PITT Under.

I'm needing XAVIER big today as well.

[rjt721]

Nice call on WVU. I wish I was on board with that one.

Good luck with the rest of today's action.

[Wassymac]

Congrats on Xavier. Really thought it'd go to the wire but Xavier put together the best effort Purdue has played against all year. I've never seen so many old school 3 point plays. Actually thought Purdue played pretty well but the Muskies were too much in the end.

[OLGC_Slayer]

Irish ruined my perfect day too bro.
Nice going with the rest of your picks.

Edit: Shiat forgot about Pitt too. Was 4-2 today. Nice to see you layed off Pitt.

[rjt721]

Congrats on Xavier. Really thought it'd go to the wire but Xavier put together the best effort Purdue has played against all year. I've never seen so many old school 3 point plays. Actually thought Purdue played pretty well but the Muskies were too much in the end.

I agree with you, I thought Purdue played a good game. Xavier's just a hand full inside with Duncan and Brown, and Purdue was really at a disadvantage trying to combat X's athleticism down low. In my opinion, Xavier's one of about four or five teams with a legitimate shot of winning the whole thing. Just a really tough match up for Purdue, yet they were able to fight back from 10 down and grab a brief lead at about the 5 min. mark. Very impressive. No shame at all losing to Xavier. Obviously Purdue should be poised for an even deeper run next season. Definitely a team on the upswing.

[rjt721]

Saturday: 4-1, +6.00

Tourney: 11-6-2, +10.3

I've been preaching Michigan State as a Final Four team all season, yet I foolishly laid off them tonight despite a strong lean. Stupid. I do still think MSU comes out of the South bracket.

[nevadaside]

EXCELLENT rj.......keep rollin, rollin, rollin w/those pics you post up here.

CONGRATS on a very nice day!

[diogee]

Congrats on another good day RJT

[imgv94]

Keep taping that ass my brother.. you're plays are a must see. Keep up the superior work

[rjt721]

Thanks guys.

Unfortunately, I gave back most of my college hoops profit on Michael Katsidis tonight (boxing).

[rjt721]

11-6-2, +10.3

Sunday

2* Arkansas +11
1* Davidson +5
1* Mississippi State +9
1* Siena +5.5
1* Siena/Villanova Over 145
1* Oklahoma/Louisville Under 126

Hopefully the dogs are barking Sunday.

I want to play the Arky ML, but this being basically a home game for UNC, as well as the name on the front of their jerseys likely leading to the Heels getting every call, makes me hesitant. Regardless, Arky absolutely has the talent to pull the upset.

Monday

2* Dayton/Illinois State Under 122 (NIT)

Tuesday

1* UMASS/Syracuse Over 163.5 (NIT)

Thursday

4* Xavier +1 -115

[imgv94]

11-6-2, +10.3

Sunday

2* Arkansas +11
1* Davidson +5
1* Mississippi State +9
1* Siena +5.5
1* Siena/Villanova Over 145
1* Oklahoma/Louisville Under 126

Hopefully the dogs are barking Sunday.

I want to play the Arky ML, but this being basically a home game for UNC, as well as the name on the front of their jerseys likely leading to the Heels getting every call, makes me hesitant. Regardless, Arky absolutely has the talent to pull the upset.

Monday

2* Dayton/Illinois State Under 122 (NIT)

Tuesday

1* UMASS/Syracuse Over 163.5 (NIT)

Thursday

4* Xavier +1 -115

Exactly why I'm not playing Arky and the points. As usual pretty much agree with everything, kind of weird how you and I are on the same page.

Only game I disagree with is Davidson, but trust me I'm not as confident seeing you against me. Oh well let G'town win by 4 or less and you and I will both be happy..

[rjt721]

Sunday: 3-2-1, -.3

Tourney: 14-8-3, +10

Arky never in the game.

Waiting for a line on Lville and Sparty.

[rjt721]

Thursday

1* Western Kentucky +13

Friday

2* Villanova/Kansas Over 142

[rjt721]

Monday: 1-0, +2.00

Tourney: 15-8-3, +12.00

UMASS/Cuse Over 163.5 pending for Tuesday.

Will be on Louisville big and probably MSU and Wazzou as well. Tracking line movement for now.

[onlooker]

Good job on the tourneys so far RJT.

[Saunders FTW]

keep it up bro

[rjt721]

Tuesday: 0-1, -1.1

Tourney: 15-9-3, +10.9