Tuesday ML Parlay and Discussion Thread. Analysis,Leans etc.Thee Best Thread on SBR!!

[imgv94]

Are there even any games Tuesday

Let's try to make some coin on Tuesday..

[MonkeyF0cker]

I love Cleveland St. +10 against Butler. May even make it a ML...

[imgv94]

I'm going to ask my Horizon expert contact about the game and see what he says.. GL I know you like it alot.

[imgv94]

If my contact comes back saying he likes Clev St, I'll probably have this kinda bet going.

Cleveland St +14 to Lakers ML

[OLGC_Slayer]

I think I'm going to play Cleveland State in a teaser.

[WestsidePete]

If my contact comes back saying he likes Clev St, I'll probably have this kinda bet going.

Cleveland St +14 to Lakers ML

Yes...

[tevari]

louisana state +6 vs san jose state looks good to me

[imgv94]

Here's what my contacts have to say about this game...

I'm all over CSU tomorrow...big time. The only reason the line is so high is because no one knows who the hell Cleveland State is. I'll gladly explain.

They played Butler twice this season...winning the first time and losing by only 5 at Butler a few weeks ago. They really had a good shot at winning that second game outright, but had an awful shooting day as well as some crap home cooking calls go against them (yet still only lost by 5). Both games these two teams played were in the 50s, so if you take 10 points here, you're kind of getting about 20% of Butler's total points. That's a lot.

Cleveland St. can certainly hang with Butler. I don't know if they win outright tomorrow, but I wouldn't be floored if they did. Gary Waters has talked about his team being 'on a mission' for weeks now, and I have to believe he's spent the last few days barking about playing a complete game after nearly blowing a huge lead on Valpo in the semis. Butler is in the big dance no matter what while CSU may not even qualify for the NIT if they lose tomorrow. This game may play out a lot like SD-Gonzaga did tonight.

Butler's forwards are big, but not very fast nor athletic. CSU's power forward J'Nathan Bullock is built like a brick shithouse and should have another big game...and if they start doubling him down low, he'll kick it out to Cedric Jackson, who has been red-hot from 3-pt range lately (Bullock is also a solid 3-pt shooter himself).

Butler played like absolute crap for about a month, but they found their rhythm again in their last 2 games...albeit against much lesser competition. I think this game will end up something like 55-51 either way. 10 points is way too many...I just can't see CSU rolling over and laying down...

My other contact

i have pounded the under in both meetings this year. books were lining the regular season meetings way too high. theyve adjusted for this championship and really shaved the number. still think csu and the under are the correct sides.

Cleveland State it is then..

[FADEME]

Ill probably play these two in my 8 pt teaser...
Clev St. +18.5
Lakers -4.5

Not sure about the the other spot? Louis Tech +14?? or Port St -6??

[YoungMoney23]

I like LA Tech +14 FADEME

LOVE LOVE LOVE cleveland state tomorrow, getting 10 points is awesome - no one has any idea who cleveland state is but ive been making bank on them all season - ill prolly throw them in a teaser as well - i like that parlay with lakers ML and cleve st +14 though IMGV

[WestsidePete]

Ill probably play these two in my 8 pt teaser...
Clev St. +18.5
Lakers -4.5

Not sure about the the other spot? Louis Tech +14?? or Port St -6??

take the proven winner Port St. (21-9) and they are hosting the conf tourny as well...so it's a home game...

[BigOrangeTitans]

I love cleveland st as well. hit the ml when they played butler at home. 10 points is theft. First line i liked, will chime in after digging a bit. Portland st looks safe for ML though.

[WestsidePete]

7 pt teaser

Clev St +17
Lakers -4.5
Port St -7

parlay
Lakers ML
Clev St +13


another parlay I may do
N Arizona ML
Lakers ML
Clev St +13

or this parlay
Port St ML
Lakers ML
Clev St +13

[OLGC_Slayer]

Is this line on Cleveland State bound to get bigger or smaller? I would imagine Joe Public will be pounding Butler pretty hard?

[FADEME]

just read this on Port. St...not sure if its totally a home game...

"Portland State has an eight-game home winning streak, although their home venue moves across town for the Big Sky Tournament. The Vikes played one game at the Rose Garden this year, beating Lewis and Clark."

[imgv94]

Since December of last year, Cleveland State has only lost one game by more than 10 points..

[WestsidePete]

Is this line on Cleveland State bound to get bigger or smaller? I would imagine Joe Public will be pounding Butler pretty hard?

+11 would be real nice...even +10.5 helps on teasers...

Clev St needs this game ..Butler is in already ...and we saw today was that means in motivation....this is a home game for Butler...think it means anything here???

[BigOrangeTitans]

Butler wins SU i believe. Cle st covers easily.

Portland st down to 13.5 some places.

[OLGC_Slayer]

Well, you guys have me convinced. Cleveland State in a teaser, probably with either Penn or Northern Arizona.

[diogee]

My bounce back from getting buried ML parlay:
N. Ariz
T'Blazers
Jazz
LAL

Should pay out pretty decent so I am going for it.

[imgv94]

GL dio..

[diogee]

GL dio..

Good luck to you as well bro.

[OLGC_Slayer]

I need a sure thing....how do you guys like this even money teaser Cleveland State +14
Northern Arizona +1.5

[imgv94]

Northern Arizona isnt a sure thing..

[WestsidePete]

I need a sure thing....how do you guys like this even money teaser Cleveland State +14
Northern Arizona +1.5

personally I would do this 2 teamer 5 pt tease
Clev St +15
Lakers -6.5

Lakers have been favs 7 times at 11 pts or more since getting Gasol...going 5-2...the 2 non covers were vs Blazers when they won by 13 as a 15.5 fav...and last night....and with no Bosh in the game they are going to go off...

also with the total at 212.5 the Lakers have scored 106 or more 12 of 13 games. The first meeting they won 121-101. Lakers have also given up over 100 pts 4 of 5 games only the Clippers stayed under 100. Toronto and Seattle played no defense this weekend without Bosh and can see the same thing here...The books figure it will be around 112-101...I'm considering the over on this game and may tease it

[WestsidePete]

just an idea

3 team 5 pt teaser
Clev St +15
Lakers -6.5
Lakers over 207.5

100 pays 140

[OLGC_Slayer]

Thanks WSP. I know very little about the NBA this year but will consider this. I know Bosh is hurting so the Lakers look pretty solid. I will definitely consider this play.
I already made up my mind about Cleveland State after looking over the numbers its a solid play. With no real motivation on Butlers side, I may even do a small ML play on them.

[NardVa]

I like Clev ST ML +500 and Weber St ML +125

[imgv94]

Lots of new people in this thread.. Remember we do this everyday.

[YoungMoney23]

7 pt teaser

Cleveland State +17
Penn +10

[OLGC_Slayer]

All but 1 of Weber States 4 losses since the beginning of 2008 have been by 3 points or less. Northern Arizona has also lost only 4, all of them being within 3 points.Interesting.

[imgv94]

[regularguy]

I agree with imgv94 on Northern Arizona-Weber State. Watch out for Weber State in this one. I think there may be value in the Wildcats as an ML dog -- it looks to be about +2.

Weber State leads the all-time series between these teams 62-24. NAU has won both matchups this season -- the second time, at home, by much less than the first time, away. The Wildcats played their best game in more than a month on Saturday; the Lumberjacks have been idle for 10 days.

Here are some good links:

http://www.sltrib.com/wsuwildcats/ci_8511267

http://nau.newtier.com/index.php?module=pnNews&tid=1&sid=2174

The other dog I am looking at for tomorrow is Louisiana Tech at +5 against San Jose State. I don't know, maybe it's too simplistic, but the Bulldogs beat the Spartans three days ago. Kyle Gibson got 28 for La Tech (he averages 16.6). The Bulldogs have shown improvement lately, while the Spartans have been in freefall, after causing some talk early in the season. The Spartans have been especially bad on the road. Las Cruces is the road. And the Spartans had to get there via Ruston. You don't see roadtrips like that in Lonely Planet. Now, don't get me wrong. La Tech has sucked this year, and this play definitely holds some risk. Still, I might have to include La Tech on a parlay card one way or another. I might have to hold my nose to do it though.

Reading material:

http://latechsports.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/031008aab.html

http://www.mercurynews.com/sportsheadlines/ci_8511529

(For full disclosure, so you don't waste time looking at my performance: I have been sort of warm (at least for me) but nothing special and certainly not on fire (maybe 60%ish), for the last few weeks. I have decided to worry about my bankroll, not my W-L record, so I haven't been keeping careful track of my record. My bankroll has been doing OK for a while.)

(Oh, after I posted this, I saw your post about new people coming into the thread. I usually don't post much in this one, but I read it and appreciate it. Anyway ... scuse me ... hope you don't mind ....)

[YoungMoney23]

Haha kanye

[diogee]

7 pt tease:
Clev St +17
Jazz +3
LAL -5