Dog Hunting: Monday March 10th

[EaglesPhan36]

6 games on the board today and the dogs look tasty fellas with maybe two exceptions. I'll post more games as I look. Here's the first two which tip at 7:00pm ET. Take these breakdowns for whatever you will.


WILLIAM & MARY vs. GEORGE MASON
The Tribe may have burst the NCAA bubble of regular season champs VCU yesterday with a spirited two point win. Mason won the regular season meeting by 6. Both teams are super stingy on D. The biggest difference is that Mason shoots much better from the field. W&M hasn't been beaten by more than tonight's # of 8 in their last 7 and prior to the Colonial tourney - Mason had failed to cover in five straight. Both teams have to win to get in, so I expect this to be a low scoring game where W&M should have just enough to cover and if Mason comes out flat - the Tribe could go dancing for the first time ever.
BEST WAGER: W&M +8 (1 unit) or W&M ML +340(1/2 unit)

RIDER vs. SIENA
This should easily be the most entertaining game tonight between two high scoring clubs. They split their regular season meetings with both winning on the others floor. Not much separates these two squads, but Rider does have a slight edge in FG% on O & D. Siena may also be a bit gassed after having to rally against Loyola yesterday. In an even match-up, always take the pts. The OVER also is enticing as both regular season meetings easily surpassed tonight's posted # of 148. Rider has gone OVER in 8 of 10 and these two teams haven't played a game under 147 in their last 6 meetings.
BEST WAGER: OVER 148 (1 unit) or RIDER +2.5 (1 unit). Rider ML +125 (1/2 unit)

[EaglesPhan36]

MIDDLE TENN.STATE vs. S.ALABAMA
This game tips at 7:30pm ET. Another generous line in my opinion at 11. Most people would look at the records and assume S.Alabama should blow MTSU out. Not the case if you followed the Sun Belt this season. MTSU has been just as hot down the stretch as S.Alabama, winning 7 of 10 and covering 7 of 10. S.Alabama has won 9 of 10 and covered 6 of the last 8 games in which lines were posted. MTSU won straight up 76-71 at home and lost by 15 at S.Alabama. I think a neutral floor keeps this around an 8-10 point game or perhaps less. Both teams are also clicking on offense, shooting over 50% in their last 5 games. S.Alabama should win with superior D, but MTSU has enough to keep this within 11.
BEST WAGER: MTSU +11 (1 unit) or OVER 132.5 (1/2 unit)

[tevari]

love rider tonight, good luck

[OLGC_Slayer]

Also note that the 15 point Southern Alabama win came in December, before MTSU started clicking.

[WestsidePete]

Rider +135 for me....

[EaglesPhan36]

ELON vs. DAVIDSON
Tip is set for 9:00pm ET. Elon is another team that has made a miracle run to the tournament final, knocking off 2nd seeded Chattanooga and then Charleston yesterday. In both those cases, they had played the team close at home in the regular season and then lost by 13 points on the road. Davidson is rolling. No doubt. But Elon arguably played them tougher than another other Southern Conference squad, losing at home by two and 10 on the road. Outside of their losses, those two results were among the closest games played vs. Davidson. Stastically, this is a massacre. Elon doesn't shoot well, Davidson does. However, Elon's defense has turned up a notch over the last 5 games - holding opponents under 40%. Davidson's D has done much of the same. The final decision here is that Elon covered twice vs. Davidson as a 12 point and 21 point dog. If they can continue to be stingy on defense, they can cover. They're gonna have it tough playing their 4th game in as many days, but I'll take my chances with this scrappy team.
BEST WAGER: ELON +16.5 (1 unit)

[MonkeyF0cker]

Hey EP,

I'm actually against you on Mason and Davidson. W&M lost 6 of their last 7 in the regular season before entering their tournament and miraculously knocked off Old Dom and VCU. I think this is a team that is just excited to play in the title game and their little run ends here. As for Elon, I think Davidson blows them out in this one. They are by no means guaranteed an at large bid in the tourney. Aside from the conference championship, they actually are playing for a bid. I think they blow them out by 30 tonight.

[GSW4life]

I like Rider a lot also...Jason Thompson is a beast!

Hey EP,
One note on the S. Alabama game...isn't the tourney being played at S. Alabama's Home court, the Mitchell Center. You stated "I think a neutral floor keeps this around an 8-10 point game or perhaps less." Do you still think this is a good play?

[EaglesPhan36]

Hey EP,
They are by no means guaranteed an at large bid in the tourney. Aside from the conference championship, they actually are playing for a bid. I think they blow them out by 30 tonight.

I agree they are better off getting the auto bid for sure, but I would have said they should have thumped Elon both the previous times as well. Some times certain teams just play certain teams tough despite what the #s say. I think Davidson wins by double digits, I just think it's less than 16.

[EaglesPhan36]

I like Rider a lot also...Jason Thompson is a beast!

Hey EP,
One note on the S. Alabama game...isn't the tourney being played at S. Alabama's Home court, the Mitchell Center. You stated "I think a neutral floor keeps this around an 8-10 point game or perhaps less." Do you still think this is a good play?

Good catch on that, I got my Alabama cities mixed up. I still think MTSU on their current streak can keep it at 10 or under. It'll be close.

[MoneySportsGuy]

Hey EaglesPhan great posts here, hope you do great tonight in your plays!

I am actually going to the William and Mary vs George Mason game and its interesting as I went to GMU for a little bit and amazing girl I know went to W&M so haha should be fun game to watch.

Goodluck tonight in your plays and lets make some money!

[LT Profits]

4 dogs in 6 games and you left out the one I played!

Good Luck on your plays though EP.

[EaglesPhan36]

Still doing the research on the others. I stated in your thread - if I go with San Diego, I'm going ML because they're either getting into the NCAAs with the upset or Gonzaga is gonna blast em by double digits. I'd take my chances with San Diego and the points though. Only game I really feel the favorite should run away is Western Kentucky. The rest I think could all cover or win outright.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well the Rider game was a complete debacle. I didn't know Rider's second best player was sitting out, so that didn't help and the over never panned out. William & Mary - hope you got a push. I waited until the tip and got 9 luckily. Middle Tennessee State got us home easy and maybe got some of you a super ML win. Elon's hanging around.