ML Parlay and Discussion thread 4 Monday. Analysis,Leans & picks. Best thread on SBR.

[imgv94]

Let's work together gentleman. Post ML Parlays, Leans and everything that has to do with college basketball.

GL

[Louisvillekid1]

Tough Card tomorrow. . .Ill have a full write up w/ a pick for the Big East Game but the rest looks rough. . .

[imgv94]

Think I might have a good one in the NBA..

Utah Jazz: 25-3 @ Home playing a Dallas team who just played overtime versus the Lakers. Dallas still starting to learn to get with J.Kidd.


Utah should get the W tomorrow IMO.

[andyman009]

nba

knicks
utah
sixers

ncaab
georgia tech
unc greensboro
west virginia
alabama a&m
alabama state
grambling state
kansas
utah state
san diego
st marys
weber state
gonzaga




100% correct

[diogee]

Not much I am liking tomorrow
Pitt +5.5
Looking into TT +20 as well.
MLs:
Utah St
St Mary's
UNCG
Leans on Weber St and GT

[diogee]

I am liking TT/Kan Over 144.5 as well

[freeVICK]

san diego -20.5 10 units

[stingyrivers]

lol andyman, that's the whole damn card.... lots of luck to you, but think i am gonna stick to just lookin for that one solid winner....


gonna be tough to make a nice ML parlay tonight because so many big spreads..... however, those that like WVU and Gtech have one tailor made right there...

WVU
Gtech

at +106


imgv, Utah works nicely with either one of those two teams if you have a strong enough lean on one of em....

Utah seems too easy, and i have noticed a loose trend that haven't tracked but just here and there noticed in the nba this year.... when a team hits the road, and comes extremely close to pulling off the road upset in the last minutes of a game but fall just short, they been getting the road SU win the next night.... saw Washington, Charlotte and the Knicks do it fairly recently.... plus i could see that Dallas/Utah staying close to the buzzer, which could be a nailbitter, but then again, utah could run em off the court in the first half for all i know.....

i know for tomorrow, a sure winner would be this:

UNC-Greensboro
Kansas
SD
St Marys
Gonzaga

but my best estimation of its payout is

at -240

which if it does work out to that, it might actually be worth it, not team in that play loses str8 up tomorrow....

imgv, you are good at the calculations, what would you put that play paying out at??

[diogee]

I use parlaycalulator.com along with the Greek Ml for a quick estimation stingy.

[MoneySportsGuy]

nice diogee didnt even know they have those parlay estimator

[diogee]

I just use that one because the URL is easy to remember

[stingyrivers]

thanks diogee... i use those too, the question with this calculation is that the huge lines dont have moneylines posted yet, so the guess is on the moneylines, here is my guess.....

UNC G -1000 (posted)
Kansas -2500 (guess)
SD -2500 (guess)
ST Marys -1000 (posted)
Gonzaga -1200 (guess)

if those are correct, then it pays at -240

am i close??

[imgv94]

Working on it now stingy. BTW nice job last few days man. You've been hitting don't think I haven't noticed brother.

[diogee]

Oh I guess that I don't know how to answer that since the Spread to ML tool doesn't work for spreads that high...maybe past game lines could give an estimate but might take some effort.

[imgv94]

My calculations have it being (-263)

Here's my estimates...

UNC G -1000 (posted)
Kansas -2600 (guess)
SD -3000 (guess)
ST Marys -1000 (posted)
Gonzaga -1600 (guess)

Just a guess.

[WestsidePete]

UNC Greensboro is a winner
17-11 and 9-3 at home
W Carolina 10-19 and 1-11 on the road
Giles W Carolina second leading scorer at 15 pts and 4 rebs a game is out

line is -14 ....will tease them for -7

also Utah St 20-9
16-0 at home...they just roll there
Fresno St 13-16
2-11 on the road...the 2 road wins vs Louisiana Tech (4-23)and CS Bakersfield (8-20) two garbage road wins

This line just -8.5 tease play to -1.5 or ML play and if I'm offered a first half play I'm on it big time ...-5 first half would be excellent.

I'm still debating...Jazz ML or tease Dallas +14...

[diogee]

I like the Jazz ML quite a bit...they are lights out at home and the Mavs are on B2B road games. I can't see the Mavs losing by more than 14 either.

[stingyrivers]

thanks imgv, yup just like we thought when you started this thread, there is some major money be made with ML Parlays, btw thanks for starting this thread ....

here is another for tomorrow night, its a work in process....

Utah St -400

very unlikely to lose, 14-0 at home, playing home finaly probably senior night, against a much weaker opponent they beat on the road last month

Weber St -330

fairly solid team in conference play, they beat this opponent at home by 13 last month, but the angle is this, Sac St is 4-23 on the season winning only 1 of their last 12 games and 2 of their last 19

now here is the trick.....

Utah St
Web St

at -160

but if you throw in UNC G or St Marys with it, the play pays at -125

[diogee]

Looks solid as well stingy...I was leaning Weber St as well since Sac St pretty much sucks. I need the St Mary's line to stay right where it is and the UNCG line to drop a little so I can use them.

[stingyrivers]

here is the other trick about tomorrow, diogee brings up a good point.... i dont see these lines going anywhere but up tomorrow, so if we wait to long to pull the trigger it could lessen our payouts big time.... unfortunately i have seen this a lot lately, people jump on these big favs and the -600 turns into -1000 in mere minutes.... but i am a little uneasy that when people start betting tomorrow on this short card, UNC G and Web st will both go way up on the ML, same with Utah st

[imgv94]

Like Utah St a lot myself brother.. They are deadly at home, aren't all Utah based teams it seems? BYU,Utah,Utah St and Jazz in NBA all nuts at home. Must be something to that state LOL..

I'd also like to add that Fresno St sucks. If you look at their schedule you will see they have no impressive victories.

Look who they beat:

La Tech (piece of Shit)
Idaho ( HUGE PIECE OF DOG SHIT)
SJST (BROKEN DOWN NOTHING TEAM)
La Tech (piece of SHIT)
Hawaii (Horrible road team)
Cal Poly (HORRIBLE TEAM)

[stingyrivers]

lol, nice work,

yeah i think...

utah st
web st

is very solid at -160

utah st
web st
UNC-Gr

at -125

utah st
web st
UNC-gr
St Marys

at even money


any takers???

[WestsidePete]

Now Jazz vs Mavs...almost the same record, difference here is home/road...back to back...Jazz being the home team they are the favs by 7...seems a lot here....Jazz are not as good as the Lakers and the line is the same....respect for the 25-3 home record. These teams know each other...same players except for Kidd...which you'd think works in the Mavs favor. Interesting that the Mavs have had 4 losses of 14 pts or more this year...all vs Eastern Conf teams...have not lost by 14 or more vs West conf...so I'll be teasing the Mavs +14 tomorrow

[WestsidePete]

I like those plays stingy...I'll be on the 2 teamer

[diogee]

I like them all stingy...will definitely be on Utah St/Weber St...will add in UNCG and St Mary's to a combo if the spread is low enough to have the ML at Betjam.

[WestsidePete]

same here diogee....

[WestsidePete]

I'm not offered ML's until 9am pac time so I'm sure i'll be getting utah st at a f*cked up number...post your numbers guys when you lock them in...I'm kind of curious on the ML movement of these...

[stingyrivers]

right now, at greek:

UNC G -13.5 -1000

Utah St -8.5 -400

Web St -7 -330

ST Marys -13.5 -1000

[imgv94]

Weber St 3-11 on the road this season
Sac St 4-8 @ Home this season

[diogee]

I really need to find out how I can get an account at The Greek since they don't offer Wyoming as an option for state....don't know if that is because we have no gambling in state or what.

[imgv94]

Be careful cause sometimes they ask for I.D when requesting withdrawls brother.

[diogee]

Weber St 3-11 on the road this season
Sac St 4-8 @ Home this season

That is why mine was a lean but Sac St pretty much sucks as well although they did worry me against Cal Davis.

[diogee]

I might just have to forget that idea and live with Betjam for now.

[WestsidePete]

Weber St 3-11 on the road this season
Sac St 4-8 @ Home this season

Sac St has only won games at home....how funny, Weber St beat Utah St at home first game of the year...Sac St only shoots 60% on FT and gets out rebounded by 8 boards a game in conf play....

[stingyrivers]

yeah that was the only drawback about that game, especially bc weber st lost 4 straight road games, and plus they arent really playing for anything, conference seedings are pretty much established for them, the only thing they would be playing for is not to get beat by one of the shittiest teams in the country.... funny thing is about this play..... i do believe i had montana state in ML parlay way back in january when they played Sac St, and sure enough sac st got one of their 4 wins that night, and then went on to lase like 10 str8 after that.....

on paper, no way weber st loses this game, but as we know they arent played on paper