Big Ten thread 2/11-2/17

diogee · 02-12-08, 03:11 AM

I'm toasted for the day and will post a write-up on Illinois at Minn sometime around 2 ET...Leaning heavily towards Minn -4 so far.

WestsidePete · 02-12-08, 03:38 AM

a little more on Michigan St...I really like them to come thru vs Purdue

The Spartans play road games at Purdue and Indiana, and the mindset is better following a 70-55 win over Northwestern Feb. 9 that raised Michigan State's record to 20-3 overall and 8-2 in the Big Ten. Though the win was against one of the conference's bottom feeders, it came after a horrendous loss at lowly Penn State.

Michigan State called a team meeting once it got home to East Lansing from the debacle in State College. That seemed to clear the air.

"It was a basketball meeting, but it was also more off-the-court stuff because, as you go through a season, there are lot of different things that go on [other than] basketball," Michigan State senior guard Travis Walton said. "Sometimes when you don't talk about it, [those issues] linger on the court.

"We felt we needed that because we're going into a big stretch at arguably some of the toughest places to play in the nation. We need to be tight knit."

Notes, Quotes
• Michigan State has had an assist on an amazing 78.3 percent of its field goals in the last four games. In all, the Spartans have assists on 69 percent of their field goals this season.

• Michigan State secured its ninth winning season in the last 11 years when it beat Northwestern Feb. 9.

Quote To Note: "It's a huge stretch. For us to stay positive and get a good seeding, we need to win these games." -- forward Raymar Morgan on consecutive road games at Purdue and Indiana that could determine Michigan State's Big Ten title hopes.

Strategy And Personnel
F Marquise Gray has regained playing time in recent weeks after seeing his minutes cut in mid-January. Gray has average 12 minutes in the last three games. He leads Michigan State with 22 dunks this season.

Player Rotation: Usual Starters -- F Raymar Morgan, F Goran Suton, C Drew Naymick, G Drew Neitzel, G Travis Walton. Key Subs -- G Kalin Lucas, G Chris Allen, F Marquise Gray.

ROSTER REPORT

• G Drew Neitzel is averaging 31.2 minutes a game, down 4.5 from last season. Neitzel's 35.7 average last season was the most by a Michigan State player since 1990-1991, but the Spartans have more backcourt depth this season with G Kalin Lucas and G Chris Allen, both freshmen.

• F Raymar Morgan is one of 30 finalists for the John R. Wooden, presented annually since 1976 to the nation's best player by the Los Angeles Athletic Club.

• C Drew Naymick had a career-high six blocked shots in the Feb. 9 win over Northwestern, extending his school career record to 115.

Alry45 · 02-12-08, 05:15 AM

Originally posted by diogee

I'm toasted for the day and will post a write-up on Illinois at Minn sometime around 2 ET...Leaning heavily towards Minn -4 so far.

You and me both. I like Minnesota alot also, lookin forward to your write up.

mofome · 02-12-08, 05:15 AM

good lord, nice thread so far.

Iwinyourmoney · 02-12-08, 06:05 AM

Good stuff!

Louisvillekid1 · 02-12-08, 12:53 PM

Great write up, now these threads are starting to catch on!!! Im really liking Mich St. to win this game.

WestsidePete · 02-12-08, 01:19 PM

Mich St +1.5

Louisvillekid1 · 02-12-08, 01:34 PM

Im on Mich St +100 ML

diogee · 02-12-08, 02:31 PM

Illinois (10-14) @ Minnesota (15-7)

The other Big Ten match-up today has the Illinois Fighting Illini traveling to Minnesota to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers a match-up in with the Illini have won 10 straight. The Golden Gophers are currently 9-3 at home this year. Their 3 loses have come to: Indiana 65-60, Mich St 78-73, and Wisconsin 63-47. They bounced back from the Wisconsin loss by beating Iowa 63-50, a game in which they were favored by 9. The Fighting Illini are 1-6 on the road this year with their lone win coming at Hawaii 79-77 in their 2nd game of the year. Since then they have lost by an average of 7.5 ppg. Minnesota is 5-5 in their last 10 games while the Illini are 2-8. The Golden Gophers are 7-1 ATS and 8-0 straight up this year when they are favored. The Illini are 4-5 ATS and 1-8 straight up when they are the underdog.

Minnesota is 5-5 and Illinois is 2-9 in conference play. Minnesota has shot below 40% 6 times this season with 2 coming at home with. Illinois has also shot below 40% 6 times this year with 3 coming on the road included 30% in their last game at Michigan St.

The Shooters
The Golden Gophers have 3 players that average double digit scoring per game led by Dan Coleman with 13.5 ppg. Lawrence McKenzie is 2nd with 11.2 ppg and Spencer Tollackson rounds out the top 3 with 10.9 ppg. Blake Hoffarber is just outside of the double digit mark at 9.2 ppg. They also have players that average 7.5 and 7.3 ppg. The Illini also have 3 players who average double digit scoring per game led by Shaun Pruitt at 12.7 ppg. Brian Randle and Trent Meacham both average 10.2 ppg. The Illini also have 2 players that average 7.6 ppg.

Offensive Statistics
Minnesota has the edge in ppg 72.9 compared to the 65.7 ppg by Illinois. Minn averages 46.2% from the field and 37.7% from beyond the arc while Illinois hits 43.3% from the field and a mere 30.4% from long range. Minnesota is also the better team from the line even though they average 67.2%. Illinois is terrible from the line at 59.5%. Minnesota has put up at least 70 points 13 times this year with 8 of them coming at home. Illinois accomplishing the same feat 9 times with the only time on the road being their 2nd game of the year at Hawaii. Minnesota has turned the ball of 15 or more times in 10 games while Illinois has done it 8 times.

Defensive Statistics
Both teams allow 62 and change ppg. Minnesota Allows 60 ppg at home while Illinois allows 65.4 ppg on the road. So far this year the opposition averages 42.8% from the field and 33.7% from downtown when facing Minnesota. The opposition averages 39.9% from the field and 31.8% from downtown when facing Illinois. Illinois has the slight edge in rebounding while averages 34.2 rpg and holding their opponents to 29.3 rpg. The Illini are led in rebounds by Shaun Pruitt 7.6 rpg and Brian Randle 5.8 rpg. Minnesota averages 30.9 rpg while their opponents average 29.1 rpg. The Golden Gophers are led in rebounds by Dan Coleman at 6.5 rpg and Damian Johnson 4.4 rpg.

The current line has Minnesota favored by 4.5 and a total of 128. Illinois has won the last 10 meetings between these two teams, a streak that I am sure the Gophers want to break. The Illini will have their hands full trying to guard this Golden Gophers team that can get hot from beyond the arc.

My pick: Minn -4.5 as well as in a ML parlay. I am also leaning towards the over but probably won't end up playing it.

Jonathan Williams is questionable with the flu...he averages 11.9 minutes, 3.1 points, and 1.8 rebounds per game.

Had to hurry through this one...running late for physical therapy.

diogee · 02-12-08, 02:32 PM

Thanks for the responses.

Louisvillekid1 · 02-12-08, 02:55 PM

Another Great Write up!

McRich · 02-12-08, 06:25 PM

I am on Purdue even though I am a Spartan fan. Michigan State has not been a good Big Ten road team in recent years. They have already lost straight up against Iowa and Penn State on the road. Purdue is much better than both of these teams. MSU continues to have turnover trouble and they can't stop the three. Neitzel and Morgan are having up and down games.

Purdue is one of the hottest teams in the land right now. This is one of the biggest home games in years for the Boilermakers. This looks like a four point victory by Purdue to me.

My 2008 Big Ten basketball ATS record in 2008 is 22-10.

diogee · 02-13-08, 02:30 AM

#14 Wisconsin (19-4) @ #12 Indiana (20-3)

On Wednesday the Wisconsin Badgers travel to Indiana to face the Indiana Hoosiers. The Hoosiers look to keep pace with Purdue in the Big Ten standings and can pull back to within half a game with a win. The Badgers are looking to bounce back from a loss to Purdue on Saturday and take over 2nd place in the Big Ten standings. Wisconsin is 9-2 in the Big Ten with both losses coming to Big Ten leader Purdue. Indiana is 9-1 in the Big Ten with their only loss coming to Wisconsin by 13 points on Jan 31st, a game in which both teams shot below 35% from the floor. Indiana turned the ball over 12 times while Wisconsin only turned it over 6 times.

The Hoosiers
Indiana is 13-1 in home games this year with their sole loss coming to Uconn on Jan 26th, a game which they were favored by 9 points and broke a 13 game winning streak for the Hoosiers. Indiana is also 39-4 at home the last 3 years. The Hoosiers are 4-7 ATS at home overall and 5-5 ATS against conference opponents. The Hoosiers have put together a 3 game winning streak since losing to Wisconsin and have shot at least 42% in each of those games.

The Badgers
Wisconsin is 6-2 on the road this year with a 4 point loss to Purdue on Jan 26th. There other road loss came on Nov 27th to Duke a game in which they lost by 24. Wisconsin are 15-13 in road games the last 3 years. The Badgers are 5-3 ATS on the road this year and 4-7 ATS against conference opponents. The Badgers are coming off of a 10 point loss in a game that they were favored by 10 points at home to Purdue. The Badgers hot a season worst 32.7% and turned the ball over 18 times in that game.

The Shooters
The Hoosiers have 4 players that average double digits in scoring, led by freshman guard Eric Gordon who averages 21.3 ppg. DJ White averages 17.6 ppg, Jordan Crawford averages 10.5 ppg, and Armon Bassett averages 10.1 ppg. Jamarcus Ellis comes in 5th averaging 7.5 ppg and leads the team in assists with 4.2 per game.

The Badgers have 3 players that average double digits in scoring. Trevon Hughes and Brian Butch both average 12.7 ppg while Marcus Landry averages 11 ppg. Michael Flowers is not far from double digits and averages 9.3 ppg. Joe Krabbenhoft and Jason Bohannon both also average greater than 7 ppg. Krabbenhoft leads the team in assists with 3 per game.

Offensive Statistics
Indiana has a clear edge in scoring with 76.5 ppg compared to the 68.9 ppg that Wisconsin averages. The Hoosiers also have the edge in shooting 47.2% to 45.6% by the Badgers. From the charity stripe Indiana shoots 75.9% while Wisconsin shoots 69.9%. Wisconsin shoots 34.2% from downtown while Indiana shoots 31%. Indiana averages 81.9 ppg while shooting 49.9% from the floor and 39.7% from downtown in home games this year. Wisconsin averages 64.4 ppg while shooting 45.7% from the floor and 41.3% from downtown in road games this year. Wisconsin averages 13 turn overs and 13 assists per game. Indiana averages 14 turnovers and 14 assists per game.

Defensive Statistics
Wisconsin has a clear edge in points allowed per game. Opponents average 54.9 ppg against the Badgers while opponents average 62.5 ppg against the Hoosiers. Opponents have shot 38.5% from the floor and 31.8% from downtown against the Badgers while opponents shoot 40% from the floor and 32.7% from downtown when facing the Hoosiers. Wisconsin holds opponents to 57.1 ppg and 39.3% from the floor as well as 33.6% from beyond the arc on the road. Indiana allows 61.1 ppg, 40.5% from the floor, and 36% from downtown in home games. Indiana has a slight edge in rebounds per game with 39 compared to 37 by Wisconsin.

Eric Gordon will play but his minutes will be limited due to a wrist injury.
Last meeting Jan 31st @ Wisconsin

Last Meeting
Wisconsin had a 30-20 lead at the half and outscored Indiana by 3 in the 2nd half to win the game 62-49. Indiana only shot 33.3 % from the floor and 14.3% from 3-point range. Wisconsin wasn't much better with 34.5% from the field and 15% from downtown. Indiana had 12 turnovers and 23 fouls as compared to 6 turnovers and 14 fouls on Wisconsin. The Badgers were 19-26 from the free throw line. The Hoosiers were 10-12 from the line.

Indiana looks to avenge their loss to Wisconsin and is favored by 4 points with the total set at 124.

Quebb Diesel · 02-13-08, 03:04 AM

i kinda like wisconsin plus the points...i still think they are the best team in the big right now (purdue always plays them tough) and i can guarentee bo ryan is going to go all out to not go on a 2 game big 10 skid...i think wisconsin could at least keep the game closer than 4 points if not winning at assembly hall. their front court is a lot deeper than IU's too...i think im going to take wisconsin plus the points because of their solid play at d and their depth in the front court...

Junkyard Dog · 02-13-08, 10:15 AM

great stuff diogee

Wassymac · 02-13-08, 10:43 AM

Does Sampson's violations affect the game tonight?

The NCAA didn't forget

I probably would have laid the short # before this.

Wassymac · 02-13-08, 11:18 AM

Here's the report

NCAA list of allegations

Louisvillekid1 · 02-13-08, 12:26 PM

This is another tough matchup, if i play its Ill take IU at home

diogee · 02-14-08, 12:51 AM

Originally posted by Junkyard Dog

great stuff diogee

Thanks Junkyard Dog
Forgot one of the games for Wednesday...working on the Thursday match-up between Michigan and Iowa.

diogee · 02-14-08, 02:44 AM

Michigan (6-17) @ Iowa (11-14)

Thursday's lone Big Ten match-up has the Michigan Wolverines traveling to Iowa to face the Hawkeyes. Iowa is currently 7th in the Big Ten standings with a conference record of 4-8. Iowa has conference wins against Ohio St, Penn St, Michigan St, and Michigan. Michigan is tenth in the Big Ten at 2-9 with only Northwestern trailing them. Michigan's only 2 conference wins have come against Northwestern and Penn St who are a combined 3-19 in conference play.

The Hawkeyes
Iowa is 8-6 this year when playing at home. On their home court they upset Michigan St, a game which they were 10 point dogs, 43-36 despite shooting a season worst 27.5% from the floor. Last week they also picked up a conference win at home against Ohio St 53-48 while playing as 5 point dogs. The Hawkeyes most recent home game was a 6 point loss while shooting 35% against Wisconsin. Five days ago Iowa traveled to Minnesota for a conference game against the Gophers. They turned the ball over 18 times and lost 63-50 despite shooting 47.4%. The Hawkeyes are 4-6 in their last 10 straight up and are 6-4 ATS in those 10 games. Iowa is 1-4 ATS as a favorite this year and 8-4 ATS within the conference.

The Wolverines
Michigan is 1-8 this year when playing on the road with their lone win coming in a 10 point victory at Northwestern despite turning the ball over 15 times. Michigan snapped a six game losing streak on their home court 5 days ago against Penn St after shooting 53.8% and turning the ball over 14 times. The Wolverines are 2-8 straight up in their last 10 games and are 6-4 ATS in those 10 games. The Wolverines are 5-9 ATS as an underdog and 6-5 ATS within the conference.

The Shooters
The Hawkeyes have 2 players that average double digits in scoring, led by junior guard Tony Freeman who averages 14.7 ppg and is second on the team with 3.3 assists per game. Justin Johnson comes in 2nd at 13.1 ppg. Cyrus Tate averages 6.3 ppg and Jeff Peterson averages 6.0 ppg and leads the team with 3.4 assists per game. Jake Kelly is the only other player that averages over 5 ppg with 5.8 ppg.

The Wolverines also have 2 players that average double digits in scoring, led by freshman guard Manny Harris who averages 15.9 ppg and leads the team in assists as well with 2.9 apg. Deshawn Sims is second on the team with 12.8 ppg. Ekpe Udoh averages 6 ppg, Ron Coleman average 5.8 ppg, and Zack Gibson rounds out the teams top five with 5.7 ppg. Kelvin Grady also averages more than 5 ppg with 5.6 ppg.

Offensive Statistics
Michigan averages 64.7 ppg while shooting 41% from the floor and 31.8% from downtown. Iowa averages 56.5 ppg while shooting 42.2% from the floor and 35.3% from downtown. Michigan shoots slightly better from the line at 68.8% as compared to the 64.1% shot by Iowa. Michigan shoots 39.1% and 30.7% beyond the arc in road games. Iowa shoots 42.2% and 35.8% beyond the arc in home games this year. Michigan averages 15 fouls, 13 turnovers, and 12 assists per game. Iowa averages 17 fouls, 15 turnovers per game, and 13 assists per game.

Defensive Statistics
The Hawkeyes only give up 57.6 ppg this year and just 53.7 ppg when playing at home. The Wolverines give up 70.8 ppg. Iowa holds opponents to 40.3% shooting from the floor and 37.9% when playing at home. Opponents average 32.6% from beyond the 3-point line when playing Iowa and 29.1% from the 3-point line when facing Iowa at home. Michigan allows 46.3% shooting from the field and 47.2% in road games. Michigan allows 39.7% from beyond the arc and 40.5% in road games. Michigan averages 33 rebounds per game led by Deshawn Sims with 4.9 rpg. Michigan averages 6 steals per game. Iowa also averages 33 rebounds per game led by Justin Johnson who averages 4.8 rpg. Iowa average 4 steals per game.

Last Meeting
On January 19th the Hawkeyes traveled to Michigan as 4 point dogs to play the Wolverines. Iowa won that game 68-60. Iowa shot 48.9% and went 7 of 19 from downtown for 36.8%. Michigan shot 40.7% and went 11 of 28 from downtown for 39.3%. Iowa turned the ball over 14 times while Michigan only turned the ball over 12 times. Michigan committed 18 fouls compared to the 9 fouls committed by Iowa. This gave Iowa a very decisive edge from the FT line in which they made 15 of 24. Michigan only had 8 shots from the line and made 5 of them. Tony Freeman went off for a career high 28 points and Cyrus Tate also had a career high 21 points and 11 rebounds against the Wolverines. The Hawkeyes had 3 players in double digits led by Deshawn Sims with 18 points. Jevohn Shepherd and Manny Harris both had 11 points. Iowa had 37 rebounds while Michigan only had 25. Iowa has a clear edge in this game especially playing at home. This line opened with Iowa favored by 7 and has already moved to 6.5 at most of the books that have released the early line. The total is set at 118.5. My leans are on the over and Iowa for this game.

Good luck...suggestions and additional information is appreciated as always. That will do it for post 1,000

Quebb Diesel · 02-14-08, 02:47 AM

i hate taking the over for big 10 games

diogee · 02-14-08, 02:59 AM

It is always risky the over is 13-8 in Michigan games and 8-13 in Iowa games. I was leaning over because Michigan gives plenty of wide open shots thus allowing a high fg% by the other team and allowing them to put up the points.

Quebb Diesel · 02-14-08, 03:10 AM

yeah their past 10 games went 7-3 all pushing over 120 points...im starting to like this play...

Louisvillekid1 · 02-14-08, 12:16 PM

This game could go either way, nice writeup

diogee · 02-16-08, 03:39 AM

Minnesota (15-8) @ #14 Wisconsin (20-4) 2:00 EST

The early Big Ten match-up on Saturday has the Minnesota Golden Gophers traveling to Madison to play the Wisconsin Badgers. March madness is closing in as the Badgers have their eye on the Big Ten championship and the Golden Gophers look to put together some quality wins to solidify themselves a spot come tournament time. Wisconsin is currently 10-2 in conference play and stands 1 game behind Purdue. Wisconsin's only 2 conference losses have come against Purdue so they need help to win the Big Ten conference. Minnesota is 5-6 in conference standings and would love to spoil any chance that Wisconsin has of winning the Big Ten. Wisconsin is coming off of a big conference win @ Indiana while Minnesota is coming off of a 24 point loss at home versus Illinois.

The Badgers
Wisconsin is 13-2 at home this year, but just 4-7 ATS at home and 8-9 ATS when favored. The Badgers are 46-4 at home the last 3 years. Purdue and Marquette are the only teams to hand Wisconsin a loss at home this year. The Badgers were favored in both of those games and lost each one by 5 points. This is their first game at home since losing as 10 point favorites to Big Ten leader Purdue. They shot a season worst 32.7% and were careless with the ball, turning it over 18 times. Wisconsin is 8-2 SU their last 10 games and 4-6 ATS during that same span which includes a 63-47 win over Minnesota 2 weeks ago. Wisconsin has won by double digits in 16 of their 20 games.

The Golden Gophers
Minnesota is 4-4 on the road this year and 5-3 ATS. As an underdog they are just 2-6 ATS this year. The Gophers are just 7-23 on the road over the last 3 years. Minnesota is coming off of a season worst 33.3% shooting performance in a blowout loss at home. Minnesota has been favored in their last 2 road games against Michigan and Northwestern, both of which they won by double digits and shot better than 55%. On the downside they turned the ball over 17 times in one contest and 15 in the other. After starting 10-3 the Golden Gophers are just 5-5 SU and 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games including 3 double digit losses. Minnesota has lost by double digits 5 times out of their 8 losses.

The Shooters
The Badgers have 3 players that average double digits in scoring. Brian Butch both averages 12.7 ppg while Trevon Hughes is not far behind at 12.5 ppg. Marcus Landry is 3rd on the team averaging 10.9 ppg, Michael Flowers is close to the double digit plateau at 9.6 ppg. Joe Krabbenhoft and Jason Bohannon both also average greater than 7 ppg. Krabbenhoft leads the team in assists with 2.8 per game and Trevon Hughes is 2nd with 2.7 per game.

The Golden Gophers have 3 players that average double digit scoring led by Dan Coleman with 13.1 ppg. Lawrence McKenzie is 2nd with 10.9 ppg and 2nd in assists at 4.3 assists per game. Spencer Tollackson is not far behind with 10.8 ppg. Blake Hoffarber is just outside of the double digit mark at 9.3 ppg. Lawrence Westbrook averages 7.7 ppg and Damien Johnson averages 7.3 ppg. Al Nolen leads the team with 3.6 assists per game while chipping in 4.8 ppg.

Offensive Statistics
The Golden Gophers put up 72.3 ppg while the Badgers average 68.8 ppg. Both teams average 45.5% from the floor while Minnesota has the edge in 3 point shooting 37.4% compared to the 34.7% by Wisconsin. Wisconsin shoots 69.8% from the charity stripe while Minnesota shoots 67.5%. Minnesota averages 17 assists, 18 fouls, and 14 turnovers per game. Wisconsin averages 13 assists, 14 fouls, and 14 turnovers per game.

Defensive Statistics
The Badgers play stout defense while only giving up 55.3 ppg and holding opponents to a rough 38.9% from the floor and 31.5% from downtown. Minnesota allows 63.8 ppg while opponents shoot 43.5% from the floor and 34.3% from downtown against them. Wisconsin averages 37 rebounds per game with 11 of them being offensive. Brian Butch, the teams leading scorer, also leads the team with 6.9 rebounds per game while Krabbenhoft is 2nd with 6.8 rpg. Minnesota averages 34 rebounds per game with 11 of them coming on the offensive end. Dan Coleman, Minnesota's leading scorer, also lead the team with 6.3 rebounds per game with Damien Johnson chipping in 4.7 per game. The Golden Gophers average 10 steals per game while the Badgers average 7 per game.

Last Meeting
February 3rd, 2008
Wisconsin traveled to Minnesota to play the Golden Gophers 3 days after picking up a key 13 point win against Indiana. Minnesota was coming off of a 12 point win at Michigan, a game that broke a 3 game skid. Wisconsin was favored by 1.5 points on the road and rolled to a 63-47 victory. The Badgers controlled the game from the start and went into the locker room at the half up 39-23. Trevon Hughes led the team with 20 points and 6 steals while Landry and Butch each chipped in 11 points. Krabbenhoft dished out 5 assists while Flowers cleaned up 8 rebounds. Westbrook led the Gophers in scoring with 11 points while Johnson had 10 points and 5 blocks. Nolen led the Gophers team in rebounds while collecting 9 for the game. Minnesota would get no closer than 14 points down during the 2nd half. The Badgers shot 48.9% (22-45) while the Gophers only shot 36% (18-50). Wisconsin shot 43.8% (7-16) from downtown while Minnesota shot 37.5% (3-8) from downtown. Wisconsin hit 12 out of 16 shots from the free throw line while Minnesota was a perfect 8 of 8. Minnesota never led in the game and the largest lead by the Badgers was 22. The Badgers commited 16 turnovers while the Gophers committed 18. The Gophers were outrebounded 28 to 25. Minnesota looks to break a five game losing streak when playing Wisconsin.

Currently the Badgers are favored by 10 points with the total set at 126.

Quebb Diesel · 02-16-08, 03:43 AM

the under looks good...no way the badgers put up 70 and their d will make sure they win by 7+ at home...

diogee · 02-16-08, 03:46 AM

Originally posted by Quebb Diesel

the under looks good...no way the badgers put up 70 and their d will make sure they win by 7+ at home...

I totally agree with that...they should get the early lead and slow the game down while playing solid defense. The under seems like the best play.

diogee · 02-16-08, 05:41 AM

#23 Purdue (20-5) @ Northwestern (7-15) 4:00 EST

The Big Ten slate also has the Big Ten leading Purdue Boilermakers traveling to Illinois to face the Big Ten bottom feeding Northwestern Wildcats. Purdue is 11-1 in conference play with there sole loss coming in a 78-75 loss @ Michigan State, a game that they were a 13 point dog in. Since then they have put together a 10 game winning streak and hold a 1 game edge over the Badgers who they beat in both meetings this year. Northwestern on the other hand is playing only in the role of a spoiler as they are a miserable 0-11 in conference play and have lost by double digits 13 times with 6 of them coming at home.

The Wildcats
Northwestern looks to break a 4 game losing streak against Purdue on Saturday. The Wildcats are 5-7 at home this year. They are 1-7 ATS at home and 7-10 ATS overall. Northwestern is 6-8 ATS as an underdog and 0-2 ATS as a 6.5-9 pt dog while going just 1-13 SU as a dog. Northwestern is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 lined games while going 2-8 SU in their last 10. During that span they have lost every game by at least 8 points along with 7 of them by double digits. In their last 2 home games they lost to Ohio St by 18 points as 8 point dogs and Minnesota by 20 points as 5 point dogs.

The Boilermakers
The Boilermakers look to extend their 10 game winning streak before traveling to Indiana to face the Hoosiers on Tuesday, a pivotal match-up in their quest to win the Big Ten. Indiana is 8-2 and a mere game and a half behind Purdue. If you like the look ahead theory then this game is for you. The entire Boilermaker team knows how important that meeting will be since it is the only one between the 2 teams. Purdue is 13-9 ATS overall and 6-1 ATS on the road only failing to cover by one point at Missouri on Dec 18th. Despite this they are just 4-3 SU on the road with losses to Missouri, Mich St, and Clemson. They were at least a 9 point dog in each of those match-ups. Purdue is also 10-2 ATS against conference opponents and is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. They enter having won their last 4 on the road including a key 5 point win against Wisconsin in their last road game despite being 10 point dogs.

The Shooters
Purdue has 3 players that average double digit scoring per game led by Robbie Hummel with 11.4 ppg, Hummel is also the team leader in assists at 2.8 per game. Etwaun Moore is a close 2nd at 11.2 ppg and tied for 2nd on the team with 2.6 assists per game. Keaton Grant is 3rd at 10.7 ppg, Scott Martin is 4th at 8.9 ppg, and Nemanja Calason is 5th with 7 ppg. Chris Kramer contributes 6.9 ppg and 2.6 apg, while JaJuan Johnson contributes 5.8 ppg.

Northwestern also has 3 players that average double digit scoring led by Kevin Koble at 15.5 ppg. Craig Moore is 2nd on the team in points and assists per game with 13.7 ppg and 3.0 apg. Michael Thompson, the team leader in assists with 4.6 per game, averages 12.5 ppg. Jason Okrzesik averages 7.3 ppg, Sterling Williams averages 6.4 ppg, and Jeff Ryan averages 5.1 ppg.

Offensive Statistics
The Boilermakers put up 68.4 ppg while the Wildcats average 63.4 ppg. Northwestern has the shooting edge with 44.9% from the field and 36.5% with the 3 ball. Purdue shoots 42.5% from the field and 36.0% from long range. Purdue has the edge at the free throw line at 71.8% compared to the 65.8% by Northwestern. Purdue averages 70 ppg on the road while shooting 45.1%. Northwestern averages 70 ppg at home while shooting 48.9%. Purdue averages 13 assists, 19 fouls, and 13 turnovers per game. Northwestern averages 17 assists, 17 fouls, and 11 turnovers per game.

Defensive Statistics
Purdue has allowed an average of 60.7 ppg over the course of this year while Northwestern has given up 68.8 ppg. Opponents have shot a solid 48.4% from the floor and 39.7% from long range against Northwestern this year. When facing Purdue opponents have shot 43.3% from the floor and 34.2% from long range. Purdue has a clear edge in rebounds at 33 per game, 10 of them being on the offensive side, led by leading scorer Robbie Hummel at 6.0 rpg. Six other players average 3 and change rebounds per game for the Boilermakers. Northwestern only averages 24 rebounds per game, only 5 of which are offensive, led by leading scorer Keven Coble at 5.5 rpg. Moore and Williams both average 3.0 rpg. Both teams allow 33 rebounds per game. Purdue averages 5 blocks per game compared to 2 blocks per game by Northwestern. Northwestern averages 9 steals per game with Purdue averaging 8 steals per game.

The line opened with Purdue favored by 9 and is currently at 8.5 with a total set at 125.5

Scott Martin is listed as questionable with a sprained ankle. Martin averages 8.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg, and 1.3 apg with 22 minutes per game

Given the play of Northwestern this year I lean towards Purdue covering in this game and will likely place on them if I can get -8.

diogee · 02-16-08, 07:24 AM

-3.5 Illinois (11-14) @ Penn St (11-12) o/u 128

Also on Saturday the Illinois Fighting Illini travel to Pennsylvania to face the Penn St Nittany Lions. Penn St is half a game ahead of Illinois in the conference standings with a record of 3-8 in the Big Ten while Illinois is 3-9. Penn States most impressive conference win was their last home game where they beat Michigan St by 9, a game in which they were 9 point underdogs. Illinois is coming off of a 24 point road win against Minnesota, in which they were a 5 point underdog. At this point both of these teams are playing for pride and positioning in the conference tournament.

The Nittany Lions
Penn State is 9-4 SU at home and 5-4 ATS at home this year. When playing as an underdog they are 3-9 ATS and 2-10 SU with wins over Illinois and Michigan St. Since starting the season 10-4 the Nittany Lions have dropped 8 of their last 9 games. They are also 2-7 ATS during that same span. Penn St has shot below 40% in 6 of their last 10 games including a season worst 35% at home against Ohio State. Penn St broke a 6 game losing streak in their last home game against Michigan St. Since then they have dropped their last 2, both of which were on the road, to Purdue and Michigan. Out of their 12 losses Penn St has lost by 5 or less just 2 times.

The Illini
Illinois is 2-6SU on the road and 4-4 ATS on the road this year. The Fighting Illini are 5-10 ATS as a favorite and 9-6 SU when playing as a favorite. On Tuesday Illinois won their first road game since the 2nd game of the season. They scored a 24 point win as 5 point dogs @ Minnesota. That win also broke a 3 game losing streak in which they lost to Mich St by 10, Purdue by 8, and Indiana by 4. The Fighting Illini are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games and are 5-5 ATS during that span. They have shot below 40% in 2 of those games including a season worst 30% against Michigan St.

The Shooters
he Illini have 3 players who average double digit scoring per game led by Shaun Pruitt at 12.7 ppg. Trent Meacham is 2nd on the team with 10.5 ppg and Brian Randle is 3rd with 10.0 ppg. Demetri McCamey, also 2nd in assists with 3.1 per game, averages 7.7 ppg. Calvin Brock averages 7.5 ppg and Rodney Alexander averages 5.3 ppg. The teams leader in assists is Chester Frazier with 4.0 assists per game. Frazier also contributes 4.7 ppg.

The Nittany Lions only have 2 players in double digit scoring led by Geary Claxton with 17.5 ppg. Claxton is also 2nd on the team in assists with 2.4 per game. Jamelle Cornley is 2nd in scoring with 11.8 ppg. Taylor Battle leads the team in assists with 3.0 per game and is 3rd on the team in scoring with 9.7 ppg. Danny Morrissey averages 7.5 ppg, Stanley Pringle averages 6.3 ppg while dishing out 2.3 apg, Mike Walker averages 6.1 ppg, and David Jackson averages 5.3 ppg.

Offensive Statistics
Penn St has a slight edge in ppg with 67.1 compared to the 66.4 put up by Illinois. Illinois shoots 43.8% from the field and 31.1% from downtown. Penn St shoots 42.3% from the field and 33.6% on the 3-ball. Both teams are a horrid 60% from the charity stripe which could easily contribute to a blown lead late in this game. Illinois averages 15 assists, 19 fouls, and 13 turnovers per game. Penn St averages 15 assists, 16 fouls, and 12 turnovers per game.

Defensive Statistics
The Illini have the edge as far a points allowed per game with 62.5 compared to Penn St allowing 66.3 ppg. Illinois holds opponents to 39.6% shooting from the floor and 31.7% from long range. Opponents shoot 44.6% from the floor and 34.8% from downtown against Penn St. Illinois average 37 rebounds per game, 12 of which are offensive, while opponents have averaged 33 rebounds per game against them. Penn St averages 36 rebounds per game, 12 on the offensive side, while allowing 33 rebounds per game by the opposition. Team scoring leader Shaun Pruitt also leads Illinois in rebounding with 7.5 per game. Randle averages 5.6 and Frazier averages 4.8 rpg for the Fighting Illini. Geary Claxton, the leading scorer on Penn St, also leads the team in rebounding with 8.4 rpg. The teams 2nd leading scorer Cornley is also 2nd in rebounding with 6 rpg. Penn St averages 6 steals per game while Illinois averages 5 steals per game.

Last Meeting
January 6th, 2008
Penn St traveled to Illinois to face the 8 point favorite Fighting Illini. Cornley led the way for the Nittany Lions with 18 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 assists. Claxton also had a double double while chipping in 11 points and 11 rebounds. McCamey led the Fightin Illini with 18 points while Frazier led the team in rebounds with 8 and assists with 6. The Illini outshot the Nittany Lions 45.5% to 36.4% from the floor as well as 27.3% to 22.2% from long range. The decisive edge came in free throws and rebounds. Illinois commited 26 fouls compared to the 13 by Penn St. Penn St went 24 of 35 from the stripe while Illinois was just 8 of 14 from the charity stripe. The Fighting Illini only turned the ball over 8 times while Penn St commited 13 turnovers, but Illinois was also outrebounded 49-24 which clearly gave Penn St the edge. Neither team had a lead larger than 4 points. Penn State ended up with a 68-64 victory.

My brain is fried and it is time for bed....will post a write-up on Michigan St @ Indiana sometime around 2 EST.

Louisvillekid1 · 02-16-08, 09:44 AM

Great info man, GL Today

Wassymac · 02-16-08, 11:41 AM

Looks like Martin is going to play today...

"Freshman forward Scott Martin (8.9 points and 3.7 rebounds a game) returned to practice Thursday and is expected to play this afternoon.

Martin missed the Wisconsin and Michigan State games after spraining his left ankle on Feb. 5 against Penn State.

"He could have played a little bit (Tuesday)," Matt Painter said. "He went through the shootaround Tuesday. He looked just OK. I watched him for about 20 or 30 minutes.

"If we were in a pinch, we could have put him out there, but it would have caused us more harm than good."

Martin said Thursday that he anticipates being ready to play against the Wildcats."

diogee · 02-16-08, 01:21 PM

Thanks for the update Wassy...solidifies me on Purdue -8.5

diogee · 02-17-08, 02:58 AM

1 PM ET -5.5 Ohio State (17-8) @ Michigan (7-17)

The lone Big Ten match-up on Sunday has the Ohio State Buckeyes traveling to Ann Arbor to face the Michigan Wolverines. Ohio State is currently tied for 4th in the conference at 8-4 and 3.5 games behind conference leader Purdue. Michigan is 9th in the conference standings at 3-10.

The Wolverines
Michigan is 3-7 SU and 2-7 ATS when playing at home this year. Michigan snapped a six game losing streak in their last game at home. The Wolverines come into this game having won 2 games in a row after beating Iowa by 8 on the road. Michigan is 6-4 ATS during their last 10 games overall. The Wolverines are 6-9 ATS as underdogs and 7-5 ATS within the conference.

The Buckeyes
Ohio State is 4-5 SU and 6-3 ATS on the road this year. They won their last road game by 18 points at Northwestern. Before that game they were 1-4 in their last 5 road games with their sole win coming over Penn St. During that span they had a 7 point loss to Purdue, 6 point loss to Michigan St, 5 point loss to Tennessee, and a 5 point loss to Iowa. Overall Michigan is 5-5 during their last 10 and 5-5 ATS during that same span.

The Shooters
The Wolverines also have 2 players that average double digits in scoring, led by freshman guard Manny Harris who averages 15.8 ppg and leads the team in assists as well with 2.9 apg. Deshawn Sims is second on the team with 12.7 ppg. Ekpe Udoh averages 6 ppg, Ron Coleman average 5.8 ppg, and Zack Gibson rounds out the teams top five with 5.7 ppg. Kelvin Grady also chips in 5.6 ppg and 2.8 assists per game.

The Buckeyes also have 2 players that average double digits in scoring, led by senior guard Jamar Butler with 14.2 ppg. Butler also leads the team with 6.3 assists per game. Kosta Koufos is 2nd on the team with 13.6 ppg and Othella Hunter is 3rd on the team with 9.6 ppg. David Lighty averages 8.8 ppg and is tied for 2nd on the team with 2.3 apg. Evan Turner also averages 2.3 apg while chipping in 8.0 ppg. Joe Diebler is the only other player that averages better than 5 ppg with 6.7 ppg.

Offensive Statistics
Ohio State averages 67.8 ppg overall this year and 64 ppg on the road. Michigan averages 64.5 ppg while putting up 68.5 ppg at home. Ohio State shoots the ball 45.8% from the field and 34.2% from downtown. Ohio St shoots 42.8 % and 30.5% from downtown when playing on the road. Michigan has slightly worse shooting with 41.1% and 32% from downtown. They shoot 43.1% from the floor and 33% 3-pointers when playing at home. Both teams shoot 69% from the free throw line. Ohio State averages 15 assists, 14 fouls, and 14 turnovers per game. Michigan averages 12 assists, 15 fouls, and 12 turnovers per game.

Defensive Statistics
Ohio State can buckle down on defense and allows 59.3 ppg overall and 62.9 ppg on the road. Michigan allows 70 ppg overall and at home. The Buckeyes hold opponents to 37.6% shooting from the floor and 26.6% from long range while the Wolverines allow 46% shooting and 38.8% from downtown. Ohio State is also the better rebounding team while averaging 37 rebounds per game, 9 of which are offensive. Kosta Koufos leads the team with 6.8 rpg while Othella Hunter is 2nd with 6.6 rpg. Michigan averages 33 rebounds per game with 11 of them being offensive rebounds. Deshawn Sims leads the team with 4.8 rpg while Ekpe Udoh is 2nd with 4.7 rpg. Both teams average 6 steals per game.

Last Meeting
On February 5th the Wolverines traveled to Columbus to face the Buckeyes. Ohio State had 5 players with double digit scoring led by Othella Hunter with 15 points. Hunter also led the team with 12 rebounds. Diebler scored 14, Lighty scored 12, Koufos scored 12, and Butler chipped in 10 points. Kelvin Grady scored 11 points for the Wolverines and was the only player in double digits for Michigan. Ohio State collected 30 rebounds while Michigan only cleaned up 23. Ohio St shot 47% from the floor and 43% from beyond the arc. Michigan shot 40% from the floor and 35% from 3 point range. Michigan made 6 out of 7 free throws while Ohio St made 10 of 15. Michigan kept the game close and was down 1 with 4 minutes to go. The Wolverines scored 0 points during the last 4 minutes of the game and Ohio St walked away with a 65-55 win. The score has went Under in 8 of the Buckeyes last 10 games. The line opened up with Ohio State favored by 7 and is currently listed at 5.5 or 6 points depending on the book. The total has not been released but there is a good chance that the under is going to be the best play for this game.

McRich · 02-17-08, 11:29 AM

I am 5-3 in Big Ten action this week and 22-14 this season.
I am taking the Wolverines +5.5 for one unit. I think this is one of those moments where one team is playing better and one is playing worse.

I am also taking the under 126.5 in this game for one unit.