Is Purdue -1.5 on Tuesday too good to be true?

Peyton2MarvinN06 · 02-11-08, 11:06 PM

Let's have a discussion about this one fellas...

curious · 02-11-08, 11:07 PM

Originally posted by Peyton2MarvinN06

I have had luck with Purdue all year long, but it's like the books are begging for money on Purdue, still thinking that they are a fraud... However, I would have said the same thing before they went up to Wisconsin and beat the Badgers who were 51-1 all time @ the Kohl Center in Big Ten play!!! That will really get your attention... Purdue still is not getting the respect they deserve in the polls that is for sure... I think they should be in the Top 20, but they aren't!

I think I'm gonna play Purdue -1.5 for a couple units... They have been good to me all year and I will keep riding em till they lose... Hopefully tomorrow isn't the time!

Would love to hear your guys thoughts on this game!

I don't see an edge in that line. Game could go either way.

Peyton2MarvinN06 · 02-11-08, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by curious

I don't see an edge in that line. Game could go either way.

Personally, I don't see an edge in the line either... Thats why I'm gonna roll with the hot, home team in Purdue... Wouldn't you say that in these games, about 75% of the time the home team wins? I'm sure I've just jinxed Purdue already, but thats fine, if they lose, my Hoosiers will be in 1st place in the Big 10!

Honestly though, I think Purdue will win this one by 7 or 8... MSU is questionable away from the Breslin Center... Lost @ Iowa, Penn State, and Purdue's ONLY loss of the season was by 3 points @ MSU! If Purdue plays to the level that they have been playing the last 9 games then they should win this one easily... Also, trying to revenge their only conference loss of the season! LIKE THIS ONE A LOT!

PURDUE HAS BEEN GOOD TO ME THIS YEAR!!! Truly funny because I absolutely despise Purdue Athletics, being a HUGE Indiana Hoosier fan!

curious · 02-11-08, 11:27 PM

Originally posted by Peyton2MarvinN06

Personally, I don't see an edge in the line either... Thats why I'm gonna roll with the hot, home team in Purdue... Wouldn't you say that in these games, about 75% of the time the home team wins? I'm sure I've just jinxed Purdue already, but thats fine, if they lose, my Hoosiers will be in 1st place in the Big 10!

Honestly though, I think Purdue will win this one by 7 or 8... MSU is questionable away from the Breslin Center... Lost @ Iowa, Penn State, and Purdue's ONLY loss of the season was by 3 points @ MSU! If Purdue plays to the level that they have been playing the last 9 games then they should win this one easily... Also, trying to revenge their only conference loss of the season! LIKE THIS ONE A LOT!

PURDUE HAS BEEN GOOD TO ME THIS YEAR!!! Truly funny because I absolutely despise Purdue Athletics, being a HUGE Indiana Hoosier fan!

I don't know about that. I look for lines that have a decided edge. There are some teams that play regional rivals extremely tough at home, like Cincinnati. So, if Cincinnati is playing at home and the line is close I will take them anyway. I don't know enough about Purdue to know if this game is a "we play regional rivals tough at home" type game.

BuddyBear · 02-11-08, 11:51 PM

Probably a toss up here. A couple things to consider and try to make sense of this line:

1) How will Purdue respond after a thrashing of Wisconsin at the Kohl Center. Winning in Madison is rare for Big Ten teams, yet the way they dominated was amazing. UW was holding opponents to 51 pts this year and Purdue put up over 70pts against the Badgers. The big question here, will Purdue be content with that big victory or will they be able to focus on the Spartans? Not sure about this....

2) Experience vs. Youth: MSU is a veteran savvy team for the most part. Yes, they have some important contributors who are young like Kalin Lucas but for the most part, Nietzal and Morgan have been around for a while and played in several big games. Purdue, on the other hand, hasn't really played these type of games. It's an inexperienced team being thrust into a situation they are not accustomed to.

3) Spartan road struggles vs. Purdue home court: MSU & Purdue are both very solid teams in their respective buildings. Purdue away from Mackey Arena is mediocre at best but are slowly improving while MSU on the road has suffered some very embarrassing losses to Iowa and most recently Penn State. MSU away from Breslin really struggled but have shown that they can win on the road. Winning in BYU (kind of), Bradly, Minnesota, Northwestern, etc... Purdue will be a very tough challenge but really MSU over the past few years have really struggled against the Big Ten elite on the road. You look at how they've fared against Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State, & Indiana the past 5 years, they maybe have 3 or 4 wins out of 15. Many of have been downright blowouts. Maybe somebody can check that for me, but I know it is not good.

4) Coaching: Matt Painter is a very solid young coach. Surely an AD right now is kicking himself for not giving this guy a more serious look. He remind me of Izzo a bit. Whereas Izzo took over for Heathcoate and restored the MSU program after some down years, Painter is taking over for Keady and reviving the programming. Still, in almost every matchup, MSU is going to have the coaching matchup or at the very least have a draw. I know Izzo is not happy with the way the Spartans have played on the road and I really expect a strong performence tomorrow from them.

My take is that this is a very fair line and perhaps somewhat inflated for Purdue. I thought this would open PK or even MSU -1.5. Keep in mind, Purdue has struggled to with some very weak competition and at best right now, Purdue is maybe a 5-7 seed in the tournament. However, I think Purdue is playing well and MSU hasn't put together a good effort in quite some time. They've really struggled but with all the talent and experience they have I would not be shocked if they won.

My advice is to sit back and watch. If I were to bet, I'd figure out who the betting public is on and bet the opposite. When the spread is this small, I typically like to fade the public. Small favorites are the betting publics favorite bet b/c they say "all Purdue has to do is win by 2....." or "What am I missing here..."

Good luck....

Louisvillekid1 · 02-12-08, 12:33 AM

early lean on Mich st.

Wassymac · 02-12-08, 12:59 AM

Purdue is slowly improving on the road?

Wire to Wire W's @ PSU, Ill, & Wisconsin

Hard fought W @ Iowa

3 pt loss in a game they led by 3 with 2 minutes left without their best player @ MSU

They've played better on the road in the conference than at home.

Quebb Diesel · 02-12-08, 01:05 AM

iowa and wisc were solid road wins...they both play tough as balls at home...but not so much w/ psu and ill...still impressive road record though for such a young team

BuddyBear · 02-12-08, 01:13 AM

Originally posted by Wassymac

Purdue is slowly improving on the road?

Wire to Wire W's @ PSU, Ill, & Wisconsin

Hard fought W @ Iowa

3 pt loss in a game they led by 3 with 2 minutes left without their best player @ MSU

They've played better on the road in the conference than at home.

Ummm...didn't they lose like 30 out of 32 games on the road going into this year???? Just b/c they've beaten 3 big ten teams on the road who won't be in the NCAA tournament does not mean they are world beaters on the road. The team is slowly improving on the road which is good b/c they've been strong at home and struggled away from Mackey going into this year. That's a very good sign that they are winning conference road games....It's a sign of a fast maturing team.

The Wisconsin win was very impressive no doubt...however, UW is very overrated so let's not get carried away here. I mean Michigan nearly went in there and won and Marquette (a mediocre Big East school) won there as well. UW is just well coached/strong home court. They have virtually no talent on that team outside maybe Brian Butch who has a real shot to play in the NBDL one day.

In my opinion, it's a fair line....I'll be rooting for the Spartans though

Wassymac · 02-12-08, 01:25 AM

The line is probably where it needs to be as the odds makers seem to have finally adjusted a bit with Purdue. That being said I don't know why you'd back MSU here.

I'd be worried about a let down if Purdue wasn't playing the only conference foe who beat them this year. These kids have yet to let W's get to their heads so I don't see why they would here. OSU @ Purdue was a big game, Wisky @ Purdue was a big game, Purdue @ Illinois was a huge for their resume, Purdue @ Wisky was for the inside track with Indiana @ the title, so I'd be shocked if the magnitude of this game affected them.

They've been using folks calling them the baby boilers as motivation all year. If anyone has watched I doubt you'd say they've played like freshman for quite a while. They've played down a bit to lesser competition at home in the Big Ten but have out played the top tier significantly (outside of MSU's 60% shooting performance at EL).

I'm not playing it but Purdue nearly ran the table @ home (in conference) last year and I think they'll get it done this year. Should be fun to watch...good luck to all who play it.

Painter is 17-4 against the Big Ten in his last 21 games.

gridironguy · 02-12-08, 01:26 AM

i dont kno much abt either team but a line that low is typically a toss-up. wish i couldve brought something more in to the discussion but from simply looking at the line, it feels the best play to take the stronger side and consider it slightly more than a coin flip. good luck

Peyton2MarvinN06 · 02-12-08, 01:27 AM

Appreciate all the feedback guys... I'm rollin on the hot ticket with the Boilers... If they happen to lose, then I'll still be happy because my Hoosiers will vault into first... However, I truly believe that IU and Purdue will both have 1 loss when they meet on the 18th of this month @ Indiana! I can't wait for that game! I feel as though the Big 10 is my best conference in terms of capping... I hope both teams have 1 loss going into that game... I will pound IU soo hard!!!

Wassymac · 02-12-08, 01:29 AM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

Ummm...didn't they lose like 30 out of 32 games on the road going into this year???? Just b/c they've beaten 3 big ten teams on the road who won't be in the NCAA tournament does not mean they are world beaters on the road. The team is slowly improving on the road which is good b/c they've been strong at home and struggled away from Mackey going into this year. That's a very good sign that they are winning conference road games....It's a sign of a fast maturing team.

The Wisconsin win was very impressive no doubt...however, UW is very overrated so let's not get carried away here. I mean Michigan nearly went in there and won and Marquette (a mediocre Big East school) won there as well. UW is just well coached/strong home court. They have virtually no talent on that team outside maybe Brian Butch who has a real shot to play in the NBDL one day.

In my opinion, it's a fair line....I'll be rooting for the Spartans though

I never said they were world beaters...just disagree with the slowly improving on the road statement. They went from a team with no chance in recent years on the road to a team who's been competitive where ever they played. The quickest turnaround I've seen in recent memory.

diogee · 02-12-08, 03:08 AM

Write-up in the Big Ten thread...check it out and please do suggest on how I can improve on anything or any extra information that I should be adding.

BuddyBear · 02-12-08, 04:09 AM

Originally posted by Wassymac

That being said I don't know why you'd back MSU here.

Did my undergrad there, so i'll be rooting for them. MSU is the only sports team I root for. But I know better than to bet on them in this situation though....

Wassymac · 02-12-08, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by Peyton2MarvinN06

I will pound IU soo hard!!!

How many points are you prepared to lay?

Wassymac · 02-12-08, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

Did my undergrad there, so i'll be rooting for them. MSU is the only sports team I root for. But I know better than to bet on them in this situation though....

Indeed I know you're an alum and appreciate the Spartan insite. Folks seem to be split down the middle on this one so we'll see what happens.

xyzky · 02-12-08, 12:58 PM

Just wanted to put my 2 cents in.

This is a better game to watch and scout than to place a bet on. We should be able to learn a lot from this young Purdue team after their big win in WI.

Peyton2MarvinN06 · 02-12-08, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by Wassymac

How many points are you prepared to lay?

I think that the line will be somewhere around 4.5 or 5 probably... Depending on how the two teams come through this week... If they are both @ 1 loss still then I say IU -4.5 or 5 next Tuesday! What do you think the line will be Wassy?

imgv94 · 02-12-08, 05:11 PM

Whats up P2m. Did you get my message yesterday?

louisvillekid · 02-12-08, 05:43 PM

not touching this game myself, but if i had to pick, it would be hard for me to go against the Spartans.

Wassymac · 02-12-08, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by Peyton2MarvinN06

I think that the line will be somewhere around 4.5 or 5 probably... Depending on how the two teams come through this week... If they are both @ 1 loss still then I say IU -4.5 or 5 next Tuesday! What do you think the line will be Wassy?

Purdue was just +10 at Wisky. I think we'll see something similar in Bloomington.

brock · 02-12-08, 06:41 PM

Purdue lost by three ten games ago to Mich St on the road.
Then reeled off nine straight wins. Revenge game at home.

Wrigley · 02-12-08, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by brock

Purdue lost by three ten games ago to Mich St on the road.
Then reeled off nine straight wins. Revenge game at home.

Looks like their getting there revenge Purdue 34-18 at half

Wassymac · 02-12-08, 09:04 PM

Congrats on the W P2M...we'll see ya next Tuesday for the title

imgv94 · 02-12-08, 09:23 PM

Call me later bud. Congrats, we should of bet more

nevadaside · 02-12-08, 11:27 PM

P2M,
CONGRATS on the great call.......