Big play for me Tuesday: Illinois State -2.5

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  • rjt721
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 02-06-07
    • 7929

    #1
    Big play for me Tuesday: Illinois State -2.5
    I’m not one for the Game of the Year-type tout nonsense that’s become so common, but this is a game I feel very strongly about and it will be my largest college hoops play this season.

    This is a game I’ve had my eye on for several weeks. A 19-game win streak, top-15 national ranking and undefeated mark in the conference have severely overvalued this Drake team, yet it doesn’t indicate how many close calls they’ve already had this season. Drake’s trailed at the half in 6/11 conference games, and sooner or later it’s bound to catch up with them. I think it happens tomorrow night at Illinois State. ISU’s 10-0 on their home court this season, and it’s going to be extremely difficult for anyone in the MVC to get a W on the Redbirds’ court. Despite Drake’s record, ISU (and even a fully healthy Bradley squad) is every bit the team as the Bulldogs, maybe even superior. Josh Young gets a lot of pub. and will likely be the player of the year in the Valley, but ISU’s Osiris Eldridge is of equal talent and just as explosive offensively. This is a significantly bigger game for ISU, who’s looking to avenge an earlier loss on the road, while Drake doesn’t have much incentive to win this game, as a loss still leaves them with a comfortable 2-game cushion for the regular season conference title. I feel this is a very strong situational play, and I’m getting, in my opinion, the better team laying only a short number in a revenge spot on their home floor.

    10* Illinois State -2.5
  • pavyracer
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 04-12-07
    • 82830

    #2
    Originally posted by rjt721
    I’m not one for the Game of the Year-type tout nonsense that’s become so common, but this is a game I feel very strongly about and it will be my largest college hoops play this season.

    This is a game I’ve had my eye on for several weeks. A 19-game win streak, top-15 national ranking and undefeated mark in the conference have severely overvalued this Drake team, yet it doesn’t indicate how many close calls they’ve already had this season. Drake’s trailed at the half in 6/11 conference games, and sooner or later it’s bound to catch up with them. I think it happens tomorrow night at Illinois State. ISU’s 10-0 on their home court this season, and it’s going to be extremely difficult for anyone in the MVC to get a W on the Redbirds’ court. Despite Drake’s record, ISU (and even a fully healthy Bradley squad) is every bit the team as the Bulldogs, maybe even superior. Josh Young gets a lot of pub. and will likely be the player of the year in the Valley, but ISU’s Osiris Eldridge is of equal talent and just as explosive offensively. This is a significantly bigger game for ISU, who’s looking to avenge an earlier loss on the road, while Drake doesn’t have much incentive to win this game, as a loss still leaves them with a comfortable 2-game cushion for the regular season conference title. I feel this is a very strong situational play, and I’m getting, in my opinion, the better team laying only a short number in a revenge spot on their home floor.

    10* Illinois State -2.5
    I suggest playing the ML for 10* play at -2.5
    Comment
    • Ship It!
      SBR Sharp
      • 01-16-08
      • 374

      #3
      Will take a closer look at this one tomorrow at work. Thanks for the write up and tip.

      FYI, The Greek has ISU -150 on the ML.
      Comment
      • Irish Lumberjack
        SBR MVP
        • 12-04-07
        • 2086

        #4
        Thanks for the heads up! Def. could use all the help i can get after being demoralized last week
        Comment
        • chandler1981
          SBR Sharp
          • 11-18-07
          • 422

          #5
          RJT,

          Nice write up. I appreciate the insight and time. I was looking at this game but couldn't make up my mind. I will crunch the numbers some more and I am going to play it. Just not sure how big. Thanks. Do you see this line moving in our favor, or should I take it now?
          Comment
          • rjt721
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 02-06-07
            • 7929

            #6
            Originally posted by pavyracer
            I suggest playing the ML for 10* play at -2.5
            Already locked in at -2.5 per the opener at Bookmaker. Never gave any strong consideration to playing the ML, as the way I capped this game I'm anticipating ISU winning rather comfortably. Certainly wouldn't have made it such a large play if I expected the 2.5 to come into play. -150's actually a fair price given the current market price, but it's on par with -2.5 -110, so I'm content with how I played it.

            Originally posted by chandler1981
            Do you see this line moving in our favor, or should I take it now?
            It's already 3 at most shops (still 2.5 at Pinny and 5Dimes). Wagerline shows 53% on ISU, so there doesn't appear to be much of a consensus, at least not yet. To answer the question, I don't think you'll see better than 2.5. I'm not sure where you play, but if 5D or Pinny is an option, jumping on 2.5 now would be my advice. I really don't expect too much movement. Drake's won 19 straight and are ranked in the top 15, so they'll get action. I'd say it probably closes 3, maybe a few 3.5s.

            Good luck.
            Comment
            • WestsidePete
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 07-19-07
              • 8049

              #7
              awesome pick RJT,

              I'm on the ML...
              Comment
              • idontlikerocks
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 10-09-07
                • 571

                #8
                sometimes i worry that these top teams, this late in the season, are given some games in conference so that they'll get a better spot come march madness. good luck!
                Comment
                • MoneySportsGuy
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-09-07
                  • 4891

                  #9
                  What book do you guys use that you can lock up a game the night before? I use BetJam and if not mistaken have to do the bets the same day ....
                  Comment
                  • onlooker
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 08-10-05
                    • 36572

                    #10
                    Originally posted by MoneySportsGuy
                    What book do you guys use that you can lock up a game the night before? I use BetJam and if not mistaken have to do the bets the same day ....
                    TheGreek, 5Dimes, Bookmaker, WSEX, and BetOnline to just name a few.
                    Comment
                    • MoneySportsGuy
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-09-07
                      • 4891

                      #11
                      Dear goodness how on earth do I have the only book that is only the same day.

                      I am registered on Bookmaker and WSEX but havent deposited yet going to do that soon. By the way, is anybody have the ATM card for BetJam and can your thoughts on it?
                      Comment
                      • Quebb Diesel
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-26-08
                        • 3045

                        #12
                        Originally posted by MoneySportsGuy
                        Dear goodness how on earth do I have the only book that is only the same day.

                        I am registered on Bookmaker and WSEX but havent deposited yet going to do that soon. By the way, is anybody have the ATM card for BetJam and can your thoughts on it?
                        bodog is the same way...but im on bookmaker too now
                        Comment
                        • awhitejackson
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-15-07
                          • 2265

                          #13
                          Ive been winning with Drake consistantly and know these streaks can turn quickly...Will definately take a look at this game tommorow..Thanks for the info..
                          Comment
                          • diogee
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 01-11-08
                            • 19477

                            #14
                            I am all of this play. Illinois State is unreal at home and should easily get the W.
                            Comment
                            • rjt721
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 02-06-07
                              • 7929

                              #15
                              Originally posted by MoneySportsGuy
                              What book do you guys use that you can lock up a game the night before? I use BetJam and if not mistaken have to do the bets the same day ....
                              As onlooker mentioned, there are several books with overnight lines. If you like BetJM, I'd probably recommend TheGreek, which is run by the same management team. They typically put the next day's college hoops lines up early in the evening ET. If you don't want to deposit into a new book, I believe BetJM allows for free transfers of your funds from BetJM to Greek. Send them an email for further details.

                              Good luck.

                              Originally posted by awhitejackson
                              Ive been winning with Drake consistantly and know these streaks can turn quickly...Will definately take a look at this game tommorow..Thanks for the info..
                              Nice run in the Parlay of the Day contest last month.

                              Good luck tomorrow.
                              Comment
                              • onlooker
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 08-10-05
                                • 36572

                                #16
                                Good luck on this RJT, I will be rooting for you.
                                Comment
                                • rjt721
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 02-06-07
                                  • 7929

                                  #17
                                  Thanks looker. Best of luck to you as well.
                                  Comment
                                  • tevari
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-02-07
                                    • 4959

                                    #18
                                    dangerous game imho, best of luck rjt
                                    Comment
                                    • buztah
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 03-23-07
                                      • 7470

                                      #19
                                      The teams are so well matched that for me the value would have to be on the plus money side ML. I am actually on Drake ML for $50 at +130.
                                      Comment
                                      • rjt721
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 02-06-07
                                        • 7929

                                        #20
                                        Gotta love 2nd half collapses.

                                        Tough to shoot 56% on your home court and lose, but ISU managed to do just that tonight.

                                        When does baseball start again?
                                        Comment
                                        • imgv94
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-16-05
                                          • 17192

                                          #21
                                          Can't seem to win a close game. Thought we had it but that run Drake made in the middle of the 2nd half was crazy. Ill St made mistake after mistake and gave the game to Drake on a silver platter.

                                          Sickening.
                                          Comment
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