you can throw in Akron ....Orlando....or URI to bump a 3 team to a 4 team ML parlay...
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yeah the spurs got me to bro, I had a real small play on
Suns ML winner
Lakers ML winner
Spurs ML chokers
that sucked.... they were up by 6 with the ball with about 3 minutes leftComment -
i know...you think they would actually play D up 1 with less than a minute left...durant didnt have a spur 10 feet from him for gods sake when he nailed that shot from the elbow!Comment -
yeah thats true westside, it gets a three teamer closer to even money payout, its a good point....
Im just a little trigger shy from doing that right now because I did that exact thing with Pitt on saturday and trying to get even money payout by plugging them in cost me the bet when all the other teams won and they couldnt put the 18 point dog rutgers away on their home courtComment -
i think if we put our head together on this we should be able to come up with an unbelievably solid 3 teamer that will without a doubt cash tomorrow nightComment -
that's what i usually do to narrow it down to 'the' play of the night.... in terms of a team profile, best case scenario i like to use a team with a winning percentage better than 75% playing a team with a losing record where ther is a clear mismatch, ideally i like to get the team playing at home but in these match ups when they are home the ML is usually too high, like URI tonight, but honestly, most of these match ups that I have used, which most people don't like is road chalk, teams in the top 40 in the country on the road playing teams with a losing record, the spread is usually around -5 to -7 which makes the moneyline about -250 to -350, which gives decent value for the team very likely to win, and also it makes it where you only have to use two of them to get even money payout.... I have cashed with duke in these in that very scenario multiple time this year, as well as Tenn and Mich StComment -
also, three big things i look at is rebounding, turnovers, and freethrows.....
rebounding because it is so important in game outcomes....
so are turnovers and free throws, but this is a key personally for me just because I cannot stand having money on teams that routinely turn the ball over or worse off shoot the ball from the stripe like they just learned how to play last weekComment -
basically if you can find two teams that you think are definite to win that are around -250 (or -5 1/2 to -6 pointspread), then you have a play that will pay even money with only two games in the parlay....
if you have three teams that average out at -400, that are just as solid to win the game, that will also pay even moneyComment -
I have gotten duke a lot this year in ML Parlays at -240, and cashed with them, but those were usually on the road, against Va Tech, Maryland and when they played Clemson, I have hit with Kan State a few times with this tooComment -
UTEP -260 might be something to look at...S Miss is 0-7 on the road and UTEP is 9-1 i think at homeComment -
E Michigan dismissed their center today for conduct detrimental to the team....Matthews...was avg 5.0 pts and 3.8 boards a game...next center is Dodd avg 1.3 pts and 1.2 boards a game...leading rebounder on E Michigan is a guard at 5.8 and stands only 6 foot two...Kent St has 2 forwards avg 7.6 and 6.3 boards a game
Kent St has 4 losses ...first one at Detroit first game of the year...then at Xavier...at North Carolina...at Ohio who's 14-6 and second in the conference...
Kent St is at -225...pretty goodComment -
home fav at -260 like utep is good to use because you only gotta find one more team with similar ML to get even money on the play, or in other words another 6 point fav or soComment -
kent state is one I would like to use too because it seems they should win the game and the ML is -225 so again would only have to do a two teamerComment -
Utep may be good here...they cashed in last game for meComment -
I think we got a good list....
In following this strategy this season most nights there is a list of about 12 to 20 games that fit the profile and almost every night the list is about 85 % wins str8 up, usually like 12-2 or 17-3 or something like that, the key is making a play that just weeds out those one or two upsets from getting into a play and you pretty much cash every night on theseComment -
i might put bowling green on a small side play against a 3-15 ball state...+180 as a .500 teamComment -
also pitt, dayton, and auburn range from -270 to -360 which are all at homeComment -
So Miss has lost 6 of 8 games...and is 3-7 on the road...and has lost every road game listed as a dog....UTEP is 9-1 at home..only loss was by one pt to New Mexico...Comment -
been toying around with the idea of just making two ML parlays off the nightly list for an equal wager, theory is that worst case scenario odds are you only pull one loser in and get the split on the night (that is worse case) but most night you cash both because the odds are with a list of 15 that is only gonna have 2 losers on it if you pull 6 teams to make two plays you aren't likely to pull both losers into your plays and the odds favor in the long run you will cash on both plays most nights.... the edge we have in this is that it isnt completely random, we are selecting these teams based on strong rationale that the chosen teams will win outrightComment -
those are all solid teams to use, Pitt scares me a bit, they seem like they are wearing down and the effects of those two key injuries are finally setting in, and Nova is probably a bit hungry after some disappointing losses of late, but Auburn.... something tells me they get it done against LSU at homeComment -
i saw that bowling green line too, something seems weird about that line, might want to look into why a 3-15 team is a fav against a .500 team, I know they are home, but that doesn't completely explain it, reeks of some injury we might not know aboutComment -
if chosen RANDOMLY statistically speaking in choosing 3 ML teams out of 15...
the probability of picking 2 losers approx 3%
the probability of picking 1 loser and 2 winners is approx. 34%
the probability of picking 3 winners is approx. 63%
this is all by random chance though...i would imagine through common sense and stats we should be able to pick a 3 team ML approx. 85%-90% of the time...Comment -
this is what i might go big on tomorrow
MSU -450
Kansas -330
Kent State -225
although kansas/kansas state is a rivalry kansas leads the series 174-89, they are undefeated, and out to prove they are No. 1...i like it a lot IMO...more than memphis -600Comment -
here's something I've never done but may do this on big money parlays...progressive parlay...have you done this before?? you have to pick a minimum of 4 teams ...if one loses you receive 1:1 payout...in otherwords you don't lose the bet...if all 4 come in it pays 5:1 instead of 10:1...you're giving up a little as insurance to still win if you only get 3 out of 4 teams....Comment -
i like that too...its a lot safer for 25 bucks...i didnt even try and toy around with if it was +Comment -
not sure what you mean by progressive parlay westside, i am curious....
do you mean something like 2 parlays
team A
team B
team C
and
team A
team B
team C
team D
???
i am curious because my whole money management strategy with these ML Parlays is to do some form of a Paroli system Loop I came up with in a sense to have high percentage play that can generate an initial profit and parlay that profit with subsequent hi percentage ML parlaysComment -
oh ok, i see, i reread your post, its like boxing picks as opposed to having them all win and you give up half the winnings if it hits, i got yaComment -
These are my ML parlays for today...I will be gone in meetings most of the day and won't be back to check on things until the early games are already going so GL Guys...
4 team ML parlay
ORLANDO
AKRON
GEORGETOWN
MICH ST
3 team ML parlay
GEORGETOWN
KENT ST
MICH ST
2 team ML parlay
KENT ST
UTEPComment -
IMGV,
Here is one for ya
ML Parlay + 406
Purdue
Georgetown
Dayton
S Carolina
Kansas
MemphisComment -
ok guys, let's cash these tickets tonight....
looks like I am rolling with these
Purdue
Gtown
Memphis
Mich St
at -101
Kansas
URI
Detroit Redwings
at -110
also gonna 7 pt tease:
Blazers + 4 1/2
Texas + 10
Cal SB - 2
GL guys hopefully we will be here breaking down tomorrows games in a bit with a fatter bankrollComment
