Free Money Plays, Sat Jan 26

curious · 01-26-08, 02:07 PM

Gonzaga comes in!!!

nice start to the day

freeVICK · 01-26-08, 02:17 PM

nice win. which one of those should i ride?

curious · 01-26-08, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by hawaii04

nice win. which one of those should i ride?

My absolute best play is Central Florida, but of the ones I posted that have not started I would say Ohio.

freeVICK · 01-26-08, 02:48 PM

awesome. thanks for that chart too, im looking at it now.

i wanna ride central florida, but i just saw that billings the center is listed at questionable. know anything about it?

curious · 01-26-08, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by hawaii04

awesome. thanks for that chart too, im looking at it now.

i wanna ride central florida, but i just saw that billings the center is listed at questionable. know anything about it?

Nope. I only look at the pythagorean factor.

Look for the teams that have the highest number in the edge column, those are the highest probability wins.

curious · 01-26-08, 06:33 PM

Great day 4-2

The free money plays keep on trucking.

Tigers1230 · 01-26-08, 06:47 PM

So curious, you saying your on Central Florida tonight?? Because I was checking this game out and want to lay some major dough on it.

curious · 01-26-08, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by Tigers1230

So curious, you saying your on Central Florida tonight?? Because I was checking this game out and want to lay some major dough on it.

I can only tell you what the math says:

Line P% Pr Line Edge
-7 1/2 0.82 -32.4 24.9 Central Florida
7 1/2 0.18 32.4 Southern Methodist

Line = best line available at SBR Odds
P% = pythagorean win %
Pr Line = predicted line using a formula which includes P% (what the line should be)
Edge = estimated edge, higher number is better.

Tigers1230 · 01-26-08, 07:02 PM

so... the 24.9 is a 7.5 difference. So your saying through your system its a good bet?

curious · 01-26-08, 07:08 PM

Originally posted by Tigers1230

so... the 24.9 is a 7.5 difference. So your saying through your system its a good bet?

The line is -7 1/2, the pythagorean formula says the line should be -32 1/2, a 25 point difference. I'm rounding off here to make the math easier. So, the edge is 25. This is very high. So, yes, the formula says this is a good bet.

Ganchrow · 01-26-08, 07:32 PM

Originally posted by curious

I can only tell you what the math says:

Line P% Pr Line Edge
-7 1/2 0.82 -32.4 24.9 Central Florida
7 1/2 0.18 32.4 Southern Methodist

Line = best line available at SBR Odds
P% = pythagorean win %
Pr Line = predicted line using a formula which includes P% (what the line should be)
Edge = estimated edge, higher number is better.

Personally I'm skeptical, but if you honestly believe in that 82% win probability for UCF you might want to consider the ML.

You can pick it up at Bookmaker at -300, implying an expectation of 9¹/₃% and expected full Kelly bankroll growth of 1.4138% (both based on you stated expected win probability of 82%).

To achieve the same expected full Kelly growth on the spread it'd need to win at about a 60.71% clip.

babaoriley · 01-26-08, 10:04 PM

This UCF/SMU game is basically a Jermaine Taylor-Jon Killen 1-on-1 game (or so it has seemed). They're a combined 12-24 from downtown.

freeVICK · 01-26-08, 10:21 PM

that sucked