Delaware +13.5 Wednesday

[rjt721]

Had this at 8.5, very surprised by this line. Game features the top two teams in the Colonial, and while Delaware certainly won't finish atop the conference, this is an improving team that returns 3 of its top 4 scorers from last season, as well as some new talent in Georgetown transfer Marc Edgerson, Nebraska transfer Jim Ledsome and freshman G Alphonso Dawson. Delaware already sports a road W against a capable W&M squad, as well as an impressive home W over conference power ODU.

This is surely Delaware's biggest test, on the road against defending conference champion VCU, but VCU's far from the team that won 28 games and beat Duke in the first round of the tourney. They lost BA Walker, who made virtually every big shot for this club, and G Jesse Pellot-Rosa, the team's best defensive player and a capable offensive player in his own right. I love Eric Maynor, and Anthony Grant's a very good young coach who will soon get a gig at a major conference, but this team's seemingly being priced as the same squad that beat Duke last season, when that's certainly not the case.

I really like Delaware +13.5 tomorrow, with also a little on the +650 ML.

[MoneySportsGuy]

Nice write up rjt I will have to look into this now that you pointed it out thanks for the post and goodluck to you!

[The HG]

Nice writeup rjt, I agree, when I first saw this line, I thought it was a typo, I was surprised to see that it wasn't.

I'm not going to jump on it just yet though, it gives me a bit of pause for now. But I agree, a very surprising opening line.

[rjt721]

It's a very interesting line, especially considering VCU's last two league games - at home against Georgia State and home to Hofstra, the two bottom teams in the conference. As a 17.5-pt. fav. over GSU, VCU held on to win by 2 after GSU missed a three in the final seconds that would have won the game, then, on Sat. as a 15-pt. fav., they beat last-place Hofstra by 10, a game Hofstra covered the 15 for all 40 min. despite missing each of their eleven 3-pt. FGs and getting outrebounded by 13.

Sure, maybe VCU will be more motivated tomorrow night with sole place of first in the Colonial at stake, and yes, they may still be the best team in the conference, but the gap has closed considerably from last season, and an improving Delaware team is more than capable of being competitive throughout.

[astro61200]

Goin with VCU, most likely

Delaware is not good on the road, -9 margin, 3-4 ATS, 3-6 SU
VCU posts a +16.6 margin at home, 7-0 SU and 3-2 ATS

Plus VCU is +2 in rebounding margin, to Delaware's -8

FG%F/FG%A for VCU is +5.9, for Delaware is -3.2

[imgv94]

I like Delaware too. Wouldn't be floored if they won this game.

[rjt721]

Delaware is not good on the road, -9 margin, 3-4 ATS, 3-6 SU
VCU posts a +16.6 margin at home, 7-0 SU and 3-2 ATS

These numbers don't come anywhere close to telling the whole story and are very misleading. VCU's played absolutely no one at home, their only home game against a team with a winning record being Richmond (8-7), one of the bottom teams in the A-10. Their 6 home opponents - Elon, W&M, Richmond, Longwood, GSU, Hofstra - have a combined record of 33-62. Delaware, meanwhile, has played road games at Marist and Rider, two of the top teams in the MAAC, as well as at Ohio, a perennial contender in the MACC, at Vermont, always a tough place to play even if they're not as good as years past, and at ACC foe, Maryland.

Plus VCU is +2 in rebounding margin, to Delaware's -8

FG%F/FG%A for VCU is +5.9, for Delaware is -3.2

Again, these numbers are largely irrelevant. VCU is the better team, this is known and clearly evidenced by the 13.5 opener. Also, these numbers are a bit skewed because Delaware played their first 7 games without Egerson, their best player, and Ledsome, a starter and one of their best role players, both of whom were ineligible because of their transfer status.

Good luck.

[astro61200]

Delaware, meanwhile, has played road games at Marist and Rider, two of the top teams in the MAAC, as well as at Ohio, a perennial contender in the MACC, at Vermont, always a tough place to play even if they're not as good as years past, and at ACC foe, Maryland.

Right, and they won 1 of those games... against a 7-9 Vermont team... they were beat down in most (How do you lose to Central Connecticut State by 33?)

Their away wins are awful, William & Mary and Drexel

Who knows, I could be wrong, but I dont think so

Good luck

[rjt721]

Yup, we shall see.

BTW, love your boys -2.5 over Marquette tomorrow.

Peace.

[curious]

I like Delaware a lot.

I have Delaware in a 3 pick teaser:
Delaware +17 1/2
Davidson -13
W. Kentucky -12

[rjt721]

VCU 60
Delaware 39

Tough to cover any reasonable number when you shoot 27% from the field, including 1-15 from three. VCU's defense is really good, but Delaware showed the effects of being in their first meaningful league game in years, as they were never competitive tonight.

Congrats to VCU backers.

[MoneySportsGuy]

VCU 60
Delaware 39

Tough to cover any reasonable number when you shoot 27% from the field, including 1-15 from three. VCU's defense is really good, but Delaware showed the effects of being in their first meaningful league game in years, as they were never competitive tonight.

Congrats to VCU backers.

Congrats Astro nice win with VCU