dwest718's 2007-08 NCAAB Picks

[Cougar Bait]

1 unit Hornets -7/-7.5
1 unit Manhattan +3
1 unit Virginia Tech -8

0.5 unit Siena -13
0.5 unit Villanova -3 (-105)
0.5 unit Niagara +1
0.5 unit Nova O145 (-105)

3-4 for the day
-1.16 units

19-15-2 YTD
+3.67 units

1.5 unit plays: 4-1-1 +3.88 units
1.0 unit plays: 8-7-1 +0.18 units
0.5 unit plays: 7-7-0 -0.39 units

Looks like you are doing better on bets with higher unit size (4-1-1 YTD on 1.5 unit plays). Any thoughts of limiting your betting to just the games you feel really strongly about?

[dwest718]

Looks like you are doing better on bets with higher unit size (4-1-1 YTD on 1.5 unit plays). Any thoughts of limiting your betting to just the games you feel really strongly about?

If I limit my plays to ones I'm "sure" about, it just means I'll risk more units on fewer picks and lose a lot more units when I hit a cold streak. By "diversifying," I'm cutting my risk. And also, when I hit a hot streak on my 1 or 1/2 unit picks, I'll make a killing on the units.


Plays tonight:
1 unit Saints -4 (-120)
1 unit Teaser (Magic -2.5 + Mavs -1 + Rockets +1.5)


Hate no games for NCAAB

[dwest718]

1 unit Saints -4 (-120)
1 unit Teaser

1-1
-0.17 units

20-16-2 YTD
+3.50 units

1.5 unit plays: 4-1-1 +3.88 units
1.0 unit plays: 9-8-1 +0.01 units
0.5 unit plays: 7-7-0 -0.39 units


NFL: 1-0-0
NBA: 0-2-0
NCAAB: 19-14-2

Lesson of the day: I hate NBA basketball

[Cougar Bait]

Okay, but you're still paying the juice on all those losses, right? I didn't know you HAD to bet a certain amount evey night. I guess everyone has their own system so just go with whatever is working. And, yeah...I would say NBA is not the way to go. Infact, I think it's much easier to make money on college sports than professional...at least that's my experience. Hit 'em hard Tuesday and GL!

[dwest718]

Several plays tonight on a tiny card.

1 unit Bradley -2.5 (-105)
0.5 unit Bradley U139 (-115)
0.5 unit Valparaiso -12 (-120)


Will be playing St. Mary's at best line I can get and putting half unit on the ML... Will post play when I get in. Leaning on UCF but will probably stay away. Thinking about playing the Blues at home in my bets somehow also.

[dwest718]

Decided to make another play:
1.5 units (Bradley U147 + UCF -3.5 + St. Mary's U137 + Valparaiso -2.5)

Gives me a way to play both the UCF game and the St. Mary's-SIU total. Again, will post my play on St. Mary's later. Have decided not to bet hockey tonight.

[dwest718]

1 unit St. Mary's ML (+165)

1 unit St. Mary's -1 2H

[dwest718]

Last night was interesting. St. Mary's played OK and got destroyed by an SIU team that hasn't showed anything this year... Bradley comes back and wins and OT and still hits their under And Evansville puts up another game that shows they can play a little bit of basketball vs. good mid-major teams


Picks tonight... coming a little late I know:
1 unit Vanderbilt -4.5 (-105)
1 unit Portland St. -8
0.5 unit Santa Clara -6 (-120)
0.5 unit San Diego +8

1 unit (Vanderbilt -0.5 + Santa Clara -2.5)

Wanted to make Vanderbilt and the teaser more units but had to place the bets quickly and just went with my generic bet.

[dwest718]

No bets for tonight so will work on updating YTD stats.

12/11
1.5 units Teaser

1 unit St. Mary's ML (+165)
1 unit St. Mary's 2H -1
1 unit Bradley -2.5 (-105)

0.5 unit Bradley U139 (-115)
0.5 unit Valparaiso -12 (-120)

3-3
+0.13 units

12/12
1 unit Vanderbilt -4.5 (-105)
1 unit Portland St. -8
1 unit Teaser

0.5 unit Santa Clara -6 (-120)
0.5 unit San Diego +8

1-3-1
-1.05 units



24-22-3 YTD (52%)
+2.58 units

1.5 unit plays: 5-1-1 +5.13 units
1.0 unit plays: 11-11-2 -1.09 units
0.5 unit plays: 8-10-0 -1.46 units

[dwest718]

1.5 units Drake -2.5

Was thinking about hedging with 0.5 unit on Iowa ML since Freeman is playing but didn't pull the trigger.

Tomorrow should be fun. Will post my leans later tonight when I get a chance to look at the early games. Yay for more basketball tomorrow

[dwest718]

Hit on Drake.
1.5 units Drake -2.5

But got destroyed yesterday:

1.5 units N. Arizona -1.5 (-105)
1.5 units Charlotte -3 (-120)

1 unit Xavier -3
1 unit Miami (OH) -3
1 unit SIU -5
1 unit Akron -1
1 unit Pacific -7

1-0 on 12/14 +1.35 units
2-5 on 12/15 -3.17 units


27-27-3 YTD (50%)
+0.76 units

1.5 unit plays: 7-2-1 +6.41 units
1.0 unit plays: 12-15-2 -4.19 units
0.5 unit plays: 8-10-0 -1.46 units

Hoping to come back tomorrow with few plays and better success.

Illinois St. and Manhattan tomorrow. Might dabble in totals a bit but that's about it. Got to look hard at NFL lines as it's playoff time

[dwest718]

Today had some picks I wasn't able to post:

1.5 units Manhattan -1

1 unit Illinois St. -3 (-120)
1 unit UL Lafayette +8 (-125)
1 unit Lions 2H Pick (-105)
1 unit UNC O146

0.5 unit Rutgers 2H +6.5 (+105)
0.5 unit Illinois St. O131

Overall great day following my worst day in a while.

5-2 today
+2.90 units

32-29-3 YTD (52%)
+3.66 units

1.5 unit plays: 8-2-1 +7.76 units
1.0 unit plays: 15-16-2 -2.66 units
0.5 unit plays: 9-11-0 -1.44 units

NFL: 1-1-0
NBA: 0-2-0
NCAAB: 31-26-3

[ppdougla]

go to sleep dwest

[dwest718]

Early leans on Tennesee Martin, Alabama, and Portland tomorrow. Will look more into these games and check out some totals tomorrow.

[astro61200]

You may want to reevaluate your unit size if the largest play you have had so far is 1.5 units... may be a little too high

Keep up the good work tho

[dwest718]

You may want to reevaluate your unit size if the largest play you have had so far is 1.5 units... may be a little too high

Keep up the good work tho

My bankroll is very, very small. I will be putting more money on soon though and you'll see some small changes in the system.


That being said... plays tonight:
1.5 units Tenn.-Martin -2.5 (-105)
1 unit Portland -3


Want to play Alabama but 17 is right on the line for me. No totals tonight.

[dwest718]

Changed the system slightly.

Picks last night:
4 units Charlotte +4
2 units Tenn-Chatanooga -7
2 units Murray St. -6
2 units SE Missouri St. +4

3 units (Kansas -5.5 + Wright St. -6.5 + Charlotte +9)


Picks tonight:

2 units UCSB -4.5 (-115)
2 units ODU -4
2 units Ohio -3.5
2 units TAMU -22
2 units Michigan St. -26
2 units Nevada -14

1 unit Bradley +10
1 unit Memphis -13.5
1 unit Southern Miss -19
1 unit Miss. St. -15.5

5 units (Memphis -5.5 + Miss. St. -7.5 + Nevada -6)