The Fox Pick of the Day 12-4

[kdmfox]

New Mexico (+1.5) at New Mexico St. (-1.5)

My pick here is New Mexico +1.5, ML +105

New Mexico is 7-1 and 6-0-1 ATS with a scoring diff. of +19.8
New Mex. St. is 3-6 and 0-7 ATS with a scoring diff. of +0.7

New Mexico has an edge in every stat except offensive rebounding.

Anyone familiar with these teams have a viable reason why this shouldn't be a 10 point + New Mexico win?

The bet: New Mexico and the ML and a parlay New Mexico and the under (151)

[regularguy]

I like this pick.

But if you are looking for arguments against, here are some things to chew on.

New Mexico was thought to be questionable up front. It appears, though, from what I have been able to gather, that they have been holding up in that regard. I think New Mexico can hang with New Mexico State underneath.

Las Cruces is a tough place to get a win, and the home team usually wins this in-state battle (the last four meetings, for example). I think the Lobos break serve this year, however.

Basically, I think the Lobos are exceeding expectations, and the Aggies are looking weak. It appears to me that the change of coaches is working out much better at New Mexico than at New Mexico State. The loss of Reggie Theus was hard to swallow in Las Cruces. He went to the Sacramento Kings. This isn't a case where the coach was let go. They hated to see him leave, and I think the program is suffering a hangover from that loss. This is in contrast to the situation at New Mexico, where everyone is psyched about the new coach, Steve Alford, who comes to New Mexico from Iowa. I say these two programs are going in opposite directions.

I'll have a modest play on the Lobos, taking the points at +1.5.

Good luck.

[kdmfox]

Thanks rg ... It's always nice to get feedback from someone familiar with the teams ... Stats don't always tell the story.

[EaglesPhan36]

Lobos ML for me as well. Let's get a W.