Slam Dunk 'o The Day

EaglesPhan36 · 12-03-07, 06:30 PM

MON 12/3 PLAYS

UC-Davis @ Dartmouth - 7:00pm ET Tip Time
Pick: OVER 130.5 (1 unit)

The theory here is that struggling defenses will allow struggling offenses a few more points than usual. UC-Davis' last three games have hit totals of 130, 144 & 136. Their offense showed life in two of those games, hitting for 69 & 76, above their average of 61. Dartmouth has been a real enigma offensively. It looked as though the Ivy Leaguers had turned the corner, scoring 81 vs. Colgate and then 76 against Vermont. Then the bottom dropped out with a poor 43 pt. showing vs. Stony Brook in their last game. Still though this features two teams that have given up close to 70 ppg over their last 3 games each. If both offenses can develop some sort of rhythm, I like this to slip past the posted # after some anxious moments.

Result: Dartmouth wins 70-67, Total Pts = 137 (W)

Tennessee State @ Indiana
Pick: 1st Half OVER 76 (1/2 unit)

Expecting plenty of points in this match-up as IU is shooting a lights out 56% from the floor at home while Tennessee State allows 87 ppg on 58% shooting and is allowing a mind boggling 65% shooting in true road games!

Result: 1st Half Total Pts = 83 (W)

YTD: 25-22 (+2.90 units)

EaglesPhan36 · 12-04-07, 05:59 PM

TUES 12/4 PLAYS

Toledo @ Houston - 8:00pm ET Tip Time
Pick: OVER 136.5 (1 unit)

Look for the Houston Cougars to continue to rack up the points tonight as they host Toledo. The Coogs average 80 ppg and have really been cooking at home in their last 4 games with 83, 96, 95 and 73 pts. The totals in those 4 games have reached 151, 165, 148 & 139. All higher than tonight's total. Toledo should be in the giving mood again as they yield 71 ppg on 49.6% FG shooting. I look back to their road tilt vs. Rhode Island on 11/24 as a possible hint of tonight's total when the Rockets were pounded 83-57 by a Rams team that has a nice array of weapons similar to Houston. Houston should be able to hit close to or above their 80 ppg average meaning that Toledo will need to provide a total in the mid-to-upper 50s. Seeing as Houston has given up no less than 53 pts in a game this season, I think the over is a good play here.

New Mexico @ New Mexico State - 9:00pm ET Tip Time
Pick: New Mexico ML (+105 - 1 unit)

The battle for New Mexico tonight and you have to like the Lobos as a slight dog here. The offenses are similar statistically with NM averaging 78 ppg on almost 50% shooting. NMST is averaging almost 75 ppg on close to 48% shooting. Where the difference should come is on the defensive end where the Lobos are limiting opponents to 58.4 ppg on 40% shooting. NMST meanwhile struggles a bit defensively, giving up close to 79 ppg on 45.5% FG shooting. NM has plenty of diversity on offense with six different players leading the team in scoring this season. JR Giddens and Chad Toppert will need solid games tonight, but expect the Lobos to sneak one out on the road if they can keep the battle of the boards close and remain efficient on offense.

UC-Riverside @ San Diego State - 10pm ET Tip Time
Pick: OVER 124 (1 unit)

This is a good spot for a play on the over with the total set a tad low in my estimation. San Diego State has too much firepower for UC-Riverside and should win this one rather easily. The Aztecs have sizzled offensively to the tune of 74 ppf on 48% shooting, almost 45% from beyond the arc. Riverside has struggled defensively giving up 70 ppg on 47% shooting, so the Aztecs should at the least hit around the average. If that's the case, UC-Riverside would need to put up a mere 50 points plus to squeak out an over. While they do struggle offensively [51 ppg] - SD State has only given up 50 pts or less on one occassion this season. Look for garbage time hoops to help this one get past the # with room to spare.