Week 1 Pags' Plays

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  • pags11
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 08-18-05
    • 12264

    #1
    Week 1 Pags' Plays
    Hello board,

    Let me first off say that my unit size in college basketball is significantly less than it is in college football. I have been handicapping college football seriously for 23 years, whereas I have only been capping college hoops seriously for 4 years. I also feel like since there are so many more games in college basketball compared to college football, that it's easier to take the half point wins and losses (that seem to be more frequent in college basketball) by playing with a lighter unit size but playing a greater number of games.

    I will flat bet each game each week, but much like in college football, my unit size will increase or decrease depending on the week of the season. For example, weeks one through three I will play each game for a half unit. Weeks 4-6 I will play each game for a 3/4 unit. Weeks 7-12 I will play each game for 1 unit. Weeks 13-15 I will play each game for a 3/4 unit. Weeks 16-18 I will play each game for a half unit.

    Also, I think it's important to limit approximately how many games each week I play, as there is a tendency with college basketball (especially on Saturdays) to "bet the board". Week 1 I will play approximately 3-7 games. Weeks 2, 3, 4, 5, 14, 16, 18, 19 I will play approximately 23 games. Weeks 6 and 8 I will play approximately 15 games (less games will be played during those weeks due to the Christmas and New Years Holidays). Weeks 10, 11, 12, 13 and 15 I will play approximately 26 games (prime conference season games). It will usually go like this: Sunday- 3 games, Monday- 3 games, Tuesday- 3 to 5 games, Wednesday- 5 to 7 games, Thursday- 3 games, Fri. I take off during conference season, Saturday- 7 games.

    I make it a point to handicap 15 of the 32 Division One conferences. I will focus primarily on the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, SEC, Big East, WAC, MWC and MVC. I will also pick my spots with teams from the A-10, Big West, CAA, CUSA, Horizon and WCC. I will make it a point not to bet on any teams from the 17 conferences I don't follow. My other goals are to try and limit the ammount of neutral court games I bet on, because I find them often times more difficult to handicap.

    Lastly, I usually end up playing half of my action at bookmaker and half at matchbook, so that everyone is clear I'm going to track my plays much like I do in football. A 1/2 unit win will be +.50, and a half unit loss will be -.50. There are some games where my juice is -103, and some where it's +107 (thus by just saying that my average bet is made at even money I think is a fair estimation). Since I'm not getting paid by anyone for all of this, it's much easier mathmatically for me to track my plays like this. I'm hoping no one will have an issues.

    GL to everyone this season.
  • pags11
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 08-18-05
    • 12264

    #2
    11/09/07

    all plays for a 1/2 unit...

    San Diego +9
    Cal Poly +5
    Creighton -3
    Comment
    • imgv94
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-16-05
      • 17192

      #3
      Sounds good coach. You are a great mentor.
      Comment
      • pags11
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 08-18-05
        • 12264

        #4
        imgv,

        thanks very much bro...GL to you this season...keep up the good capping...
        Comment
        • Cougar Bait
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 10-04-07
          • 18282

          #5
          Love that Creighton pick. Don't know enough about San Diego or Cal Poly. GL this week and all season!
          Comment
          • DrLuck
            SBR Hustler
            • 09-06-07
            • 64

            #6
            gl pags... like SD
            Comment
            • regularguy
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 09-12-07
              • 781

              #7
              It's great news to see that you cap NCAA basketball, pags. I have learned from your football writeups. I appreciate what you do at this forum.

              It's also good to see that you watch the WAC. That happens to be my favorite to bet on. I also keep my eye on the MWC, the Pac10 and, to some extent, the WCC. I don't do this full time -- I still have my day job -- so I find it best if I focus on a few conferences.

              I'll chime in from time to time, if I think I have discovered something useful. It usually will involve the western conferences that I watch.

              By the way ... never worry about hurting my feelings. Sometimes I need someone to tell me I'm delusional. That's a great thing about this kind of forum.

              Best of luck to you.
              Comment
              • imgv94
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-16-05
                • 17192

                #8
                pags,

                Can't wait to see who is this seasons USC for ya.
                Comment
                • strictlywinners
                  Restricted User
                  • 07-17-07
                  • 3377

                  #9
                  great play with tcu i hit spread and 2nd half but lost moneyline that shoulda been winner as well i think im gonna ride and die with you this weekend
                  Comment
                  • Boilermaker04
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 10-29-07
                    • 44

                    #10
                    Pags,

                    The CBB season is here. I look forward to follwing you this season. I wish you lots of luck this year and look forward to reading more of your posts. Maybe the Irish and Boilermakers will make a big splash this year. Any thoughts?
                    Comment
                    • Teasem
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 10-04-07
                      • 244

                      #11
                      College B-Ball here we go

                      BOL this season Pags
                      Comment
                      • EaglesPhan36
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 12-06-06
                        • 71662

                        #12
                        Man what the F happened to Cal Poly? I was on them +5.5 and it looked good until about 8:00 left in the 2nd half and then they croaked! Poor shooting and lots of fouls.
                        Comment
                        • zootiehead
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-09-06
                          • 1715

                          #13
                          Loved seeing Creighton pour it on in the second half.
                          Comment
                          • pags11
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 08-18-05
                            • 12264

                            #14
                            11/12/07

                            play for a 1/2 unit...

                            Loyola Marymount -2
                            Comment
                            • Cougar Bait
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 10-04-07
                              • 18282

                              #15
                              Originally posted by pags11
                              play for a 1/2 unit...

                              Loyola Marymount -2
                              Got Loyola at -1.5, what do you think about Delaware St. +3.5?
                              Comment
                              • DrLuck
                                SBR Hustler
                                • 09-06-07
                                • 64

                                #16
                                gl pags
                                Comment
                                • tblues2005
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 07-30-06
                                  • 9235

                                  #17
                                  pags,

                                  How did you do last year on College BB?

                                  Good Luck this season, I play it some but not as much as football though.
                                  Comment
                                  • pags11
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 08-18-05
                                    • 12264

                                    #18
                                    bet the house,

                                    yeah, I just like this situational spot for LMU...they're a team I've followed over the years, and although they lost several starters from last year's team, I like that UALR has had to travel cross country and also like that the game is being played late at night (9 PM CST)... historically LMU has been a good home team while this UALR won only 4 road games last year...I also really like LMU's coach Rodney Tension, who puts a big time emphasis on defense (which should keep them in this one late into the game)...it seems to be an unpopular play amongst forum posters, but I just have to go with my gut here...

                                    I have no clue on Deleware St. as I don't follow their conference...sorry I don't have more info. for you here bro...

                                    drluck,

                                    thanks bud...

                                    tblues,

                                    I hit approximately 56.5%...like I said, I'm not nearly as good of a college hoops handicapper as I am a college football handicapper, but I have been learning a lot and it helps pass the time until next college football season starts...lol...GL to you...
                                    Comment
                                    • pags11
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 08-18-05
                                      • 12264

                                      #19
                                      11/13/07

                                      play for a half unit...

                                      UC Irvine +2
                                      Comment
                                      • tblues2005
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 07-30-06
                                        • 9235

                                        #20
                                        pags not a problem good luck in the college bb season, you didn't do too bad last season, I do see some lines that I find attractive, I think it is just too early to tell so far.
                                        Comment
                                        • pags11
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 08-18-05
                                          • 12264

                                          #21
                                          11/14/07

                                          play for a half unit...

                                          Southern Miss +8
                                          Comment
                                          • BigBollocks
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 06-11-06
                                            • 2045

                                            #22
                                            Pags I also really like Southern Miss tonight, although I've seen the line drop in the last several hours as opposed to go up.

                                            Do you mind going a little further into what you see in this matchup? I tend to like USM's chances on the boards, and just think Beasley, Wise, and Stone are scrappy enough to pull out a win on the road. I'd love your 2 cents on the matchup tonight. If your BB season is half as good as your football it'll be a nice winter. Cheers...
                                            Comment
                                            • pags11
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 08-18-05
                                              • 12264

                                              #23
                                              big bullocks,

                                              sorry I wasn't able to get to this in time...up 54-50 with 4:30 and they lose by 8...very tough push...oh well, on to the next game...
                                              Comment
                                              • pags11
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 08-18-05
                                                • 12264

                                                #24
                                                11/15/07

                                                all plays for a half unit...

                                                Michigan +14.5
                                                Oklahoma +8.5
                                                Clemson +4.5
                                                Comment
                                                • loserii
                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                  • 11-15-07
                                                  • 10

                                                  #25
                                                  I like Cal poly also. I think the home field advantage will help them win out right. This site also agrees they have been doing ok.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • pags11
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 08-18-05
                                                    • 12264

                                                    #26
                                                    11/16/07

                                                    no play for me now on Hawaii...key guard Bobby Nash was injured yesterday in practice, other key guard Matt Gibson was still walking yesterday with a knee brace and has yet to be cleared to play...combined with these two factors are the fact that the football game has a late start (8 PM PST) and will affect attendance during the basketball game...based on my ho-hum start anyway, I'm better off steering clear of this game now...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • pags11
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 08-18-05
                                                      • 12264

                                                      #27
                                                      11/16/07

                                                      play for one unit...

                                                      St. Bonaventure -2.5

                                                      St. Bonaventure is the more veteran team and most importantly, they know how to put the ball in the basket (compared to this woeful shooting LMU team that averages 50.5 points per game). I hate laying points on a neutral court out west, but I can't pass this one up.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Boilermaker04
                                                        SBR Rookie
                                                        • 10-29-07
                                                        • 44

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by pags11
                                                        big bullocks,

                                                        sorry I wasn't able to get to this in time...up 54-50 with 4:30 and they lose by 8...very tough push...oh well, on to the next game...


                                                        Pags,

                                                        That game got the best of me as well. I had it at +7 and lets just say that blew the parlay
                                                        Comment
                                                        • pags11
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 08-18-05
                                                          • 12264

                                                          #29
                                                          boilermaker,

                                                          hang in there bro...this college basketball is one ****ed sport...GL to you...
                                                          Comment
                                                          • pags11
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 08-18-05
                                                            • 12264

                                                            #30
                                                            11/17/07

                                                            all plays for a half unit...

                                                            South Carolina -1
                                                            Virginia +6
                                                            Nevada -7
                                                            San Diego +1
                                                            Florida -16
                                                            Oregon -14
                                                            Depaul -12
                                                            Comment
                                                            • pags11
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 08-18-05
                                                              • 12264

                                                              #31
                                                              9-8-1 on the week, +1/2 unit...
                                                              Comment
                                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 12-06-06
                                                                • 71662

                                                                #32
                                                                In the black baby, just where you wanna be!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • pags11
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 08-18-05
                                                                  • 12264

                                                                  #33
                                                                  eaglesphan,

                                                                  thanks bro...yeah, for the first week or so of the season I'll take it as I'm just getting a beat on some of these teams...

                                                                  one adjustment I will make for next year (and those to follow) is not to start playing college hoops until after I have made my week 13 NCAAF picks...it got to be too much the last week and a half to try and watch film on both sports...not that anyone will care that much, just making a mental note to myself and those that follow my plays...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • imgv94
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 11-16-05
                                                                    • 17192

                                                                    #34
                                                                    pags,

                                                                    Is it safe to say you spend more time handicapping college football then college basketball?


                                                                    imgv
                                                                    Comment
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