Barking Dogs/Free Shots/Bonus Shots (O/U)

Aunty808 · 12-15-25, 05:17 AM

Recap
Sunday Dec 14
BARKING DOGS S/U 2-0 / ATS 2-0 ML 2-0
Buffalo+1 at E Carolina..............(11/-14.2) NO PLAY
Indiana St+4' at Milw..................(9.4/-2.3) Final 70-68 WW
Kent St at Portland+7'.................(2.2/3.4) Final 88-78 WW

Buffalo closed at a -1' favorite in the contest. NO PLAY
(ECarolina+1' won 73-70.)

Leans S/U 3-0 ATS 3-0 ML 3-0
N Tex+2' at So Ala.............(8.8/12.50) Final 58-57 WW
Troy+6 at UAB....................(11.6/15.4) Final 86-85 WW
High Pt at App St+12........(28.3/11.8) Final 86-78 WW

FREE SHOTS S/U 4-0 ATS 3-1
B Cookman at Mizz-19...........(-4.7/22.3) Final 82-60 WW
WMich at Iowa-28...................(-4.4/23.6) Final 91-51 WW
Charlotte at Charleston-5...(-3.6/13.1) Final 74-67 WW
Wash St at USC-15...................(-3.9/15.1) Final 68-61 WL

BONUS SHOTS 2-0
Chic St at Loyola OV 141'..................(-28.5/-13.3) Won (159)
Coppin St at Radford OV 153........(-28.7/-0.5) Won (184)

Aunty808 · 12-15-25, 02:01 PM

Monday Dec 15
Barking Dogs
Wyoming at So Dakota St+4'/+5'...........(19.1/13.8)
McNeese at Houston+12'/+14....................(34.3/29.5)
Incarnate Word+18/+19 at TCU................(12.6/14.5)
ETex A&M+4' at SE Louisiana............(7.0/-5.1)

Free Throws

Bonus Shots O/U
Wofford at Gardner-Webb OV156' .......(-3.7/-28.2)
Niagra at VCU OV142.................(-20.9/-15.2)

TRACKING ONLY -NO PLAY
No Ala at Ala A&M OV 136'/138'.................(-3.7/-8.3)
Open 136' / entered 138'
Contest consensus was 70% OV136' and then 78% OVER 138'.
My notes says if line goes up, take the UNDER.

Aunty808 · 12-16-25, 12:46 PM

Recap
Monday Dec 15
Barking Dogs S/U 1-3 ATS 3-1 ML 1-3
Wyoming at So Dakota St+4'/+5'...........(19.1/13.8) Final 72-87 LL
McNeese at Houston+12'/+14....................(34.3/29.5) Final 68-78***LW
Incarnate Word+18/+19 at TCU................(12.6/14.5) Final 65-69 LW
ETex A&M+4' at SE Louisiana............(7.0/-5.1) Final 70-69 ML

***McNeese at Houston - The game was incorrect. Wrong Houston listed. Houston Christian was supposed to be the correct team.
Luckily the play won ATS. They actually played a good first half and kept the game close. Then they ran out of gas.....

Almost won the ML with Incarnate. They played a tight game throughout but didn't have enough gas to close it out Wow, I just checked the ML...listed as +1700! Close but no cigar!!

Free Shots
N/A

Bonus Shots O/U 0-2
Wofford-9' at Gardner-Webb OV156' .......(-3.7/-28.2) Final 83-57 UNDER (140) L
Niagra at VCU-31 OV142.................(-20.9/-15.2) Final 58-84 UNDER (142) L 1/2pt loser!!

This catagory is a work in progress. I am still trying to figure it out. Previous day, two negative teams went OVER the total.
But I backtested the first day of method, if the line was -1 to-3, those games went OVER. Lined games that were -5 and up. games stayed UNDER. Will track them here.

TRACKING ONLY -NO PLAY
No Ala at Ala A&M OV 136'/138'.................(-3.7/-8.3) Final 60-68 UNDER (128) W
Open 136' / entered 138'
Contest consensus was 70% OV136' and then 78% OVER 138'.
My notes says if line goes up, take the UNDER.

Winner! As I was doing the numbers for today, there were several line moves. I won't list them here but will just track them in my notes because today's line moves are crazy. I need to sort them out.......

YTD
Barking Dogs
S/U 3-3
ATS 5-1
ML 3-3

Free Shots
S/U 4-0
ATS 3-1

Bonus Shots O/U
W/L 2-2

Aunty808 · 12-16-25, 01:25 PM

Tuesday Dec 16
Barking Dogs
Louisville+2 at Tenn 157'.............(36.1/20.4)
DePaul+10' at St John's 153........(14.3/22.1)
So Car+12' at Clemson 140.......(16.5/22.1)
Marist+6' at Geo Tech 139 .........(17.4/2.9)**** (62%/83%)
ETSU+16 at No Car 150................(23.0/24.5)
Butler+15 at Conn 147'................(19.2/25.4)
Southern+12 at CA Baptist 154' .....(9.6/6.2)
Pacific+22 at BYU 150'......................(18.4/26.2)

NO PLAY
Wrong team listed.... correct team is Loyola Marymount
***San Diego at Loyola MD

****Consensus in contest (PUBLIC/TEAM EXPERTS)

I had the Howard/Drexel listed as a Barking Dog but did not realize the game started early. Tracking it here.
Howard+6' at Drexel 137 ...........(7.1/-0.3)

Free Shots
USC Upstate-9' at SC St 147'................(9.8/-34.4)
Chic St at B Green-22 145'....................(-24.9/27.8)
Belmont-8' at Evansville 150' .............(24.2/4.2)
Montana St-2' at Cal Poly 159 ...........(10.1/-4.7)

Bonus Shots O/U
Rider at Delaware-9 133............ ..........UNDER 133...(-23.4/-4.0)
Little Rock at Moorehead-3' 140....... OVER 140.....(-21.5/-6.5)
S Heart-1 at UMass Lowell 147' ..........OVER.147'......(-2.2/-1.6)

NO PLAY
Wrong team listed.... correct team is Loyola Marymount
San Diego at Loyola MD

Aunty808 · 12-17-25, 10:12 AM

Recap

Tuesday Dec 16
Barking Dogs S/U 0-8 ATS 3-5 ML 0-8
Louisville+2 at Tenn 157'.............(36.1/20.4) Final 62-83 LL
DePaul+10' at St John's 153........(14.3/22.1) Final 66-79 LW
So Car+12' at Clemson 140.......(16.5/22.1) Final 61-68 LW
Marist+6' at Geo Tech 139 .........(17.4/2.9)**** (62%/83%) Final 76-87 LL
ETSU+16 at No Car 150................(23.0/24.5) Final 58-77 LL
Butler+15 at Conn 147'................(19.2/25.4) Final 60-79 LL
Southern+12 at CA Baptist 154' .....(9.6/6.2) Final 67-75 LW
Pacific+22 at BYU 150'......................(18.4/26.2) Final 57-93 LL

****Consensus in contest (PUBLIC/TEAM EXPERTS)

I had the Howard/Drexel listed as a Barking Dog but did not realize the game started early. Tracking it here.
Howard+6' at Drexel 137 ...........(7.1/-0.3) Final 74-66

Free Shots S/U 4-0 ATS 1-3
USC Upstate-9' at SC St 147'................(9.8/-34.4) Final 78-72 WL
Chic St at B Green-22 145'....................(-24.9/27.8) Final 55-76 WL
Belmont-8' at Evansville 150' .............(24.2/4.2) Final 83-78 WL
Montana St-2' at Cal Poly 159 ...........(10.1/-4.7) Final 83-80 WW

Bonus Shots O/U W/L 3-0
Rider at Delaware-9 133............ ..........UNDER 133...(-23.4/-4.0) Final 57-65 UNDER (127) W
Little Rock at Moorehead-3' 140....... OVER 140.....(-21.5/-6.5) Final 64-78 OVER (142) W
S Heart-1 at UMass Lowell 147' ..........OVER.147'......(-2.2/-1.6) Final 82-87 OVER (169) W

This catagory is a work in progress. I am still trying to figure it out. Previous day, two negative teams went OVER the total.
But I backtested the first day of method, if the line was -1 to-3, those games went OVER. Lined games that were -5 and up. games stayed UNDER. Will track them here.
Update- It worked today, they all won.
=================

YTD
Barking Dogs
S/U 3-11
ATS 8-6 (57.1%)
ML 3-11

Free Shots
S/U 8-0
ATS 4-4 (50%)

Bonus Shots O/U
W/L 5-2 (71%)
==========================

The one thing you can't avoid with any System/Method is regression to the mean. I've been doing these Systems/Methods for years. It doesn't matter what the System/Method is or what the sport, regression always shows up .

With football, for me, regression happens every four weeks. This is my first year doing baskets. I'll keep watch, but, being there's games everyday, looks like regression will be showing up around every four days.

When it happens, the way to beat it, IMHO, is to watch the early plays and if they are losing, FADE the later plays. Trust me, it works!

Aunty808 · 12-17-25, 04:29 PM

Who let the DOGS out?

Wednesday Dec 17
Presbyterian+3' at E Carolina 132..........(2.2/-12.5)
Sienna+2' at Vermont 134 ........................(13.6/6.3) Vermont (65%/88%)
Youngstown St+2 at Rob Morris 138.....(17.1/8.8)
Ala St20' at Cinn 145' .............................(-2.1/9.0)
Mercer+15' at CFla 160'..............................(12.7/16.9)
Longwood+25' at WForest 163'...............(3.4/18.0)
Bingham+25 at Pitt 136...........................(-11.7/0.70)
Mercyhurst+25' Syracuse 131'.................(-2.4/9.9)
La Tech+4 at Tulane 140'..........................(21.4/-2.8)
Ark St at Texas St+4 153'..........................(-0.5/11.2)
Kenn St+3' at MTST. 159' ..........................(28.4/9.3)
So Fla+13' at Alabama 180' .....................(12.2/16.4) Alabama (68%.83%)
GTown+5' at Marquette 149'..................(7.7/3.3)
TAM-CC+7 at Stephen A 139.................(6.5/14.7
Portland St+16 at Colorado 150.............(17.1/18.4)
NTexas+12 at Santa Clara 138'..............(8.0/11.0)
Sam Hou St+2' at Oreg St 150................(17.0/2.2)
Tex-Arlington+12 at Stanford 140' .......(17.1/10.9)
AF+24' at SDST 135..................................... ..(-8.2/8.2)
Ariz St+8' at UCLA 146'................................(11. 1/14.9)
Portland+19 at Oregon 154'....................(4.2/1.8)

Hopefully we'll bounce back from yesterday's regression.
Next up Free Shots and Bonus Shots.

stevenash · 12-17-25, 04:40 PM

Good work in here, and regressions are inevitable; the trick is to ride them out without getting hurt.
Best of luck.

Aunty808 · 12-17-25, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

Good work in here, and regressions are inevitable; the trick is to ride them out without getting hurt.
Best of luck.

Like clockwork....E.V.E.R.Y Single year.
thanks for stopping by!
good luck with your bets and Happy Holidays!

Aunty808 · 12-17-25, 05:29 PM

Wednesday Dec 17

Free Shots
No Iowa-5' at Ill Chic...134............(22.9/5.4)
Vandy-9 at Memphis 161.............(32.2/-3.0)
Oak at No Ky-2' 164.......................(-2.3/15.7)
UC S Barb-4' at GBay 142'..........(10.5//-4.6)
Campbell at Gonzaga-36 162.....(5.6/35.1)
Seattle-3' at UC Davis 142 ..........(27.8/1.9)
Jaxville-3' at FAM 140' ..................(3.7/27.8) Jax(63%/82% 23-5)

Jaxville St has the higher Rtg Diff so it becomes a play. When I first started doing the numbers, I go to the contest for their opening line. Then when I do the posting here, I check if the numbers differ and what the percentages are. So, if Jaxville St opened at -4 and is now -1' with a percentage of 83%, shouldn't the line move the other way? Most of the time when I see this kind of line move, the play loses. Therefore, we should FADE Jaxville-1'.
Let's what happens ........
E Kentucky at Jaxville St-4/-1' N/A .....(2.0/18.6) (59%/83% 19-4)

Bonus Shots O/U
MD Eastern at Wagner-5' / 129 (-13.9/-1.7) UNDER 129
HCU at Nicholl's St-4 / 142 (-0.40/-3.8) OVER 142

Aunty808 · 12-18-25, 09:45 PM

Running late today.....daughters Christmas party takes precedence over basketball.

I looked over yesterday's plays and was disappointed with the results. So I did a little more research and found another tool to add to the toolbox.
I read an article that said "For the first time in the KenPom era, all four teams in the Final Four boast ratings above 35.00".
The article was written for the 2025 final four. So I am going to use KenPom's NetRtg (Adjusted efficiency margin)ranking as the other tool. As of today, Michigan is #1 with a NetRtg of 37.39. Miss Valley St sits at the bottom with a NetRtg of -32.62.

Since I started tracking this method, the only stat I used was the Rtg Diff stat from a site I subscribe to. That's the numbers in the (XX/XX) after each game.
RtgDiff (Rating Differential): The difference between a team's offensive and defensive ratings. A positive value indicates a higher offensive efficiency relative to defensive efficiency.

Next post will be the tweaked version.
Also, using KenPom's ranking paints a better picture of the game. I'll use the game below as an example.

E Kentucky at Jaxville St-4/-1' N/A .....(2.0/18.6) (59%/83% 19-4)
KenPom Rank/NetRtg
E Kentucky 260/-7.90
Jaxville St-2' 267/-8.29

EKentucky ranked higher and had the better NetRtg, making it the play. Pick percentage at 83% (FADE) on Jaxville St, makes the play on EKentucky a strongr play.
Final EKentucky 62-59.

Gotta stop here, last night we had one of the worse thunderstorms ever. It knocked out the internet and electricity in many area. I just lost my internet and can't post this.....6:45am Hawaii time

4:45pm Hawaii Time
Just got back from work, internet back on.....couldn't do any games today.

Aunty808 · 12-19-25, 11:34 AM

Friday Dec 19

First day of tweaked plays.
(1) Using Rtg Diff :RtgDiff (Rating Differential)
The difference between a team's offensive and defensive ratings. A positive value indicates a higher offensive efficiency relative to defensive efficiency.

(2) Using KenPom's NetRtg (Adjusted efficiency margin)ranking.

Barking Dogs
Seton Hall+2'/+1 at Providence 154' (OVER 80%)
Villanova+5'/+5 at Wisconsin 150'
Mt St Mary's+4' at Drexel 140'
Belmont+1 at UC Irvine 149'

Tracking
Opened DOG then flipped to FAV
Dartmouth+1'/-1 at S Heart 155'
Grambling at Hampton+1'/-2

Free Shots
EMich at Arkron-16' 158
Miss Valley St at Fla St-41' 160'
Alcorn St at Baylor-36'/-34' 163' (OVER 83%)
SE Louis at LSU-22/-23' 144'
Abilene Christian at BYU-33 145'
San Diego at UC San Diego-13'/-14 158'
No Alabama at Loyola Marymount-11/-10 139
Cal Poly at UCLA-25'/-25 160'
LaSalle at High Point-13' 148

Bonus Shots ( FADE OR FOLLOW)
I'll be using this spot to track the 80% to 100% pick percentages in the contest.
I can't find a solid method using numbers so I'll see how good the players are at the O/U.

Seton Hall+2'/+1 at Providence 154' (OVER 80%)
Alcorn St at Baylor-36'/-34' 163' (OVER 83%)
======================

I'll break down the games in the next post so you can see the actual numbers and why they are the plays, according to the numbers. There were some games that I listed as leans in my notes because the numbers were close. I'll list them in the next post.
Add your own capping style to finalize your own plays.

good luck!

Aunty808 · 12-19-25, 12:54 PM

Barking Dogs
(1 Rtg Diff/2 (Rank)/NetRtg)
Seton Hall+2'/+1 at Providence 154' (OVER 80%)
Seton Hall........21.3/(48) 16.09
Providence.....9.5/(69) 12.37

Villanova+5'/+5 at Wisconsin 150'
Villanova......16.8/(34) 19.24
Wisconsin....12.5/(39) 18.10

Mt St Mary's+4' at Drexel 140'
Mt St Mary's..........-15.6/(302) -11.65
Drexel........................-1.5/(297) -11.20

Belmont+1 at UC Irvine 149'
Belmont............22.3/(84) 10.26
UC Irvine...........21.6/ (122) 4.34

Tracking
Opened DOG then flipped to FAV

Dartmouth+1'/-1 at S Heart 155'
Dartmouth..............5.6/(215) -4.84
Sacred Heart.........-2.4/(280) -9.37

Grambling at Hampton+1'/-2
Grambling ..............-1.0/(264) -7.88
Hampton.....................8.1/(233) -6.24

Next up Free Shots....

Aunty808 · 12-19-25, 01:55 PM

Free Shots
(1 Rtg Diff/2 (Rank)/NetRtg)

EMich at Arkron-16' 158
EMich.....................3.5/(212) -4.60
Akron.....................23.2/(65) 12.97

Miss Valley St at Fla St-41' 160'
Miss Valley St.............-30.70/(365) -32.59
Fla St...............................1.3/(118) 5.14

Alcorn St at Baylor-36'/-34' 163' (OVER 83%)
Alcorn St................-31.6/(330) -15.45
Baylor......................13.50/(32) 19.41

SE Louis at LSU-22/-23' 144'
SE Louis................-4.4/(285) -9.68
LSU............................23.9/(35) 19.11

Abilene Christian at BYU-33 145'
Abilene C ................5.5/(219) -5.47
BYU..........................28.3/(8) 28.98

San Diego at UC San Diego-13'/-14 158'
San Diego...................-2.4/(247) -6.96
UC San Diego..........17.43/(83) 10.35

No Alabama at Loyola Marymount-11/-10 139
No Alabama..................-4.4/(234) -6.45
Loyola MaryM...... ........13.6/(141) 1.87

Cal Poly at UCLA-25'/-25 160'
Cal Poly..................-5.0/(237) -6.57
UCLA.........................16.0/(29) 20.03

LaSalle at High Point-13' 148
LaSalle...................-5.0/(263) -7.85
High Point..............31.3/(99) 7.23
=========

Free Shot Leans

Coppin St at Navy-19' 143'
Coppin St.............-29.6/(364) -27.91
Navy.........................2.03/(293) -3.73

Tulsa-2' at W Kentucky 158'
Tulsa....................26.3/(73) 11.78
WKentucky........11.5/(1.50/1.28

Fla AM at Tarleton-14' 150'
Fla AM....................-23.6/(334) -16.10
Tarleton...................10.2/ (191) -2.89

Fla Atl at St Mary's-13' 143'
Fla Atl..................18.5/(116) 5.28
St Mary's ...........25.2/(33) 10.33

Norfolk St-6 at Jackson St 134'
Norfolk St................3.3/(256) -7.59
Jackson St............-42.50/(329) -15.39
==========

Bonus Shots (O/U)
Seton Hall+2'/+1 at Providence 154' (OVER 80%)
Seton Hall........21.3/(48) 16.09
Providence.....9.5/(69) 12.37

Alcorn St at Baylor-36'/-34' 163' (OVER 83%)
Alcorn St................-31.6/(330) -15.45
Baylor......................13.50/(32) 19.41

Aunty808 · 12-20-25, 10:55 AM

Recap Friday Dec 19

Running short on time so just a summary of yesterday.
The Barking Dogs went 3-1 S/U and ATS. Mt St Mary, the lone loser, kept the game close and could've covered, but kept fouling in the last minute and lost.

Free Shots went 8-1 S/U but only 4-5 ATS.

Bonus Shots
One won and one lost.

Tracking Dog flipped to Fav
Both dogs turned favorite lost.
===========

Aunty808 · 12-20-25, 11:16 AM

Saturday Dec 20
Short on time, will do breakdown in next post.

Barking Dogs
Liberty+10' at Dayton
St John's at Kentucky+2'
Marshall+4' at Troy
B Green+1' at Ohio 151 (OVER 83%)
G Canyon+2' at Wyoming
Auburn+8' at Purdue
Tex Tech+8' at Duke
Xavier+4' at GeoTown

Barking Dogs
Line moved, tracking here to see what happens.
Col St+7'/+8' at Utah 147 (OVER 81%)
Northwestern+2'/+1' at Butler
Marquette+7'/+6' at Creighton
Houston at Arkansas+4'/+5'

Free Shots
Chic St at Indiana-36'/-37'
Mia Oh-10'/-9' at Ball St
LoyolaChic at Santa Clara-17-/-16'
Citadel at Richmond -20/-18'
Buclnell at Iowa-24'

Bonus Shots
B Green+1' at Ohio 151 (OVER 83%)
Col St+7'/+8' at Utah 147 (OVER 81%)

Tracking: Dog filpped to Fav
Kent St+1'/-1' at UMass 166 (OVER 80%)

good luck!

EDIT: ADDING
Barking Dog
NC at Ohio St+4'/+3'

Aunty808 · 12-20-25, 01:27 PM

I won't have time to breakdown the games today, it's the holiday season and there's too many distractions!!
good luck!

Aunty808 · 12-21-25, 02:17 AM

Results for Saturday Dec 20
First day using the KenPom NetRtg as an added tool. It really made a difference filtering out the questionable plays. I would consider the Barking Dogs and Free Shots the best bets. I'm glad I moved the games where the lines moved. All of those Dogs lost.

Barking Dogs S/U 6-3 ATS 7-2 ML 6-3
Liberty+10' at Dayton Final 64-61 ML winner
St John's at Kentucky+2' Final 78-66 ML winner
Marshall+4' at Troy Final 63-70 LL
B Green+1' at Ohio Final 68-58 ML winner 151 (OVER 83%) Lose (126)
G Canyon+2' at Wyoming Final 82-70 ML winner
Auburn+8' at Purdue Final 60-88 LL
Tex Tech+8' at Duke Final 82-81 ML winner (oh what a game!!!)
Xavier+4' at GeoTown Final 80-77 ML winner
NC at Ohio St+4'/+3' Final 70-71 LW

Barking Dogs S/U 0-4 ATS 0-4
Line moved, tracking here to see what happens.
Col St+7'/+8' at Utah Final 58-100 LL 147 (OVER 81%) winner (158)
Northwestern+2'/+1' at Butler Final 58-61 LL
Marquette+7'/+6' at Creighton Final 63-84 LL
Houston at Arkansas+4'/+5' Final 94-85

Free Shots S/U 4-1 ATS 3-2
Chic St at Indiana-36'/-37' Final 78-58 WL
Mia Oh-10'/-9'/-8' at Ball St Final 86-77 WW
LoyolaChic at Santa Clara-17-/-16' Final 78-80 LL
Citadel at Richmond -20/-18' Final 80-56 WW
Buclnell at Iowa-24' Final 94-39 WW

Bonus Shots
B Green+1' at Ohio 151 (OVER 83%) Lose (126)
Col St+7'/+8' at Utah 147 (OVER 81%) winner (158)

Tracking: Dog filpped to Fav
Kent St+1'/-1' at UMass Final 69-59 WW 166 (OVER 80%) loser (128)

good luck!

EDIT: ADDING
Barking Dog
NC at Ohio St+4'/+3' Final 70-71 LW

Aunty808 · 12-21-25, 10:47 AM

Sunday Dec 21
Early games

Barking Dogs
Penn St at Pitt+1'
Quinn+6' at Hoftra
Vandy at WForest+4'
Miss+7' at NCSt
So Ill+6' at Bradley (82%)

Free Throws
Loyola MD at Geo Mason-24'

Bonus Shots
Charleston at No Kentucky UNDER 150' (85%)
Southern at Baylor OVER 167' (87%)
Lehigh at Monmouth OVER 141' (89%)
FWayne at N Dame OVER 147' (83%)

New Catagory
Fadeaway Shots (80%-100% Contest Consensus)
FADE the team with the pointspread
Colgate+28' at Florida (90%) 9/1
Southern at Baylor-25' (82%) 14/3
Lehigh at Monmouth-9' (82%) 9/2
Presby at Manhattan+1 (81%) 17/4
Cen Ark at SMU-23' (80%) 12/3
So Ill at Bradley-6' (82%) 9/2

Leans
These did not have the minimum of 10 players picking.
Murray St-4' at Valparaiso (83%) 5/1
Kenn St at Alabama-21' (88%) 7/1

Gonna finish the rest of the schedule now.......

good luck

Aunty808 · 12-21-25, 02:03 PM

Adding

Barking Dogs
Uconn at DePaul+14

Line moved, tracking here to see what happens.
Cinn+6'/+5' at Clemson
Sam Hou St+3'/+4' at NMex St
Columbia+8/+7 at Calif
Gonzaga at Oreg+12'/+11'

Free Shots
Gardner-Webb at Tenn-42'
N Hampshire at St Louis-35'
LaSalle at Michigan-39'
No Florida at Mia Fla-36'
N Dakato at Nebraska-29'

***NOTE
So many big spreads today ..I predict half will win and half will lose.

Bonus Shots
Gardner-Webb at Tenn OVER 142' (81%)
ETex AM at Tex AM OVER 165' (84%)

good luck

Edit: Error
This game should be in the BARKING DOG group not FREE SHOTS.

UC Irvin at N Dakota St+2'

Aunty808 · 12-22-25, 01:04 AM

I am going to take a break from posting till after the holidays. There's too much going on for me to stay focused.

Hope everyone has a happy and safe holiday!

Friegentahl · 12-22-25, 04:18 AM

nice record

Aunty808 · 12-22-25, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by Friegentahl

nice record

Thanks, but I wish it were more consistent....one day lots of winners then the next day, losers. I feel like a yoyo sometimes...lol.
I learned yesterday that capping by the numbers is okay. but, you have to take a peek behind the numbers and do a little more capping before it ends up being a play.

I'll use the North Dakota at Nebraska-29' game as an example.

Nebraska's Rtg Diff was 24.3
North Dakota was -1.3

Nebraska was ranked 21 with a 22.12 NetRtg.
North Dakota was ranked 326 with a -14.93 NetRtg.

Nebraska qualified as a Free Shot play, numberwise. So, I use the game as my survivor pick. Since the game was on the tv, I decided to watch North Dakota get smoked. Not so fast my friend.......Nebraska never took the lead until 18:52 in the second half. And of course, they won, but they didn't cover the 29' points.

While watching the game, the commentator said North Dakota gives Nebraska a hard time when they play each other. In '23 as a 17 point underdog, the score was 75-83. They lost by 8 points. In '19 as a 9 point underdog, they beat Nebraska 75-74.

Then he went on and talked about how Nebraska+9' beat Illinois(who was ranked at 13 at the time), by a score of 83-80.

The moral of my story.
(Today I Learned....)

1- Do a lttle more research on the games you are interested in betting. Numbers don't lie, but they also don't tell you the whole story. And.....

2- Do not play on a team off of an upset win. Said team will usually come out flat in their next game. They let their victory go to their heads and act like they just won the March Madness bracket.......lol.

Oh btw, I am back to square one (0) in the survivor contest.....will take a break and start anew after the holidays.
Merry Christmas and have yourself a safe and Happy New Year!