i do not see a single favorite

BuddyBear · 03-14-07, 11:36 PM

I would say your thinking is very sharp....but I've been doing a lot of listening lately and talking with a few inside sources and my understanding is that these lines are shaded badly for underdog bettors. The guys at LVSC are about as sharp as they get....I would say there are very few games that present a lot of value. So i think you are right in that you look and see favorites with little value but I see little value with many underdogs either.....

rmcaj · 03-14-07, 11:40 PM

maybe every game will just be a push then...

babaoriley · 03-15-07, 12:24 AM

Georgetown, Vandy, B.C., Arizona and MSU are all faves that I think will cover. I think Gtown, Vandy and Arizona all cover with ease.

Razz · 03-15-07, 12:29 AM

I don't see any I would play on Friday, but there are a couple I would lean to Thursday.
I think Pittsburgh and Michigan State are both very playable. Vandy, BC, and Washington State are all worthy of consideration.

ShamsWoof10 · 03-15-07, 12:39 AM

The lines makers are sharp but not sharp enough... They can set a line but how many times is it really even CLOSE to the number... They put up bad numbers ALOT... Ya'll remember that sucker bet or what we thought might be one with NCST/NC Sun..? Detroit at Portland tonight and Det. wasn't hardly favored by sh*t and last week they were a PK against Denver... What the F*uck are these guys smokin'..? Anyway I do think at times they put up bad lines on purpose and are usually right but those games are a few here and there... I like the only poll hater on the board for both days... UggaTech. over UNLV..

Seattle Slew · 03-15-07, 12:49 AM

I'm thinking Indiana -1.5 might be a good play. They played Gonzaga tough in Round 2 last year and Gonzaga is nowhere near as strong, while Indiana is kinda the same type of team. Other than that, I also don't see any favorites.

Teams I'm liking on Thursday:

Texas Tech +2.5
Old Dominion +2
George Washington +3.5
Davidson +7

Crayzee · 03-15-07, 09:03 AM

yes- i should say i don't see many dogs that look that good to me either
maybe i'll just play second halfs

Crayzee · 03-15-07, 09:10 AM

Originally posted by babaoriley

Georgetown, Vandy, B.C., Arizona and MSU are all faves that I think will cover. I think Gtown, Vandy and Arizona all cover with ease.

these all look pretty good

BuddyBear · 03-15-07, 09:15 AM

Originally posted by ShamsWoof10

The lines makers are sharp but not sharp enough... They can set a line but how many times is it really even CLOSE to the number... They put up bad numbers ALOT... Ya'll remember that sucker bet or what we thought might be one with NCST/NC Sun..? Detroit at Portland tonight and Det. wasn't hardly favored by sh*t and last week they were a PK against Denver... What the F*uck are these guys smokin'..? Anyway I do think at times they put up bad lines on purpose and are usually right but those games are a few here and there... I like the only poll hater on the board for both days... UggaTech. over UNLV..

Ummm......you get a chance to listen to Kenny White on the radio last night? If you've seen me post on here you know what I think about the numbers the linesmakers put up and the respect I have for them. Trust me, if it was as easy as you make it sound everyone would make tons of money doing this. The reality is, almost everyone loses at this.

babaoriley · 03-15-07, 07:40 PM

Interesting stuff. Just got back in town from my grandma's funeral and see that every fave has covered and covered with ease. Has won me quite a bit of money thus far. Now, I need VCU to cover, MSU, and UCLA... Don't have anything on Ohio St.

You know, after looking at the lines again last night and thinking about the original statement in this thread, then thinking about Buddy Bear's response, I almost bet straight chalk, all the way down the line. I looked at the lines and circled the sides I liked for round one, then tallied it up and saw that I had picked 21 favorites and 11 dogs. The 11 dogs I picked to cover were ODU, Oral Roberts, VCU, Tex A&M CC, Wright St, Gonzaga, CC St., Albany, LB St.,Arkansas and Jackson St. Of those, I only felt really good about ODU, Oral Roberts, VCU, Wright and gonzaga. Semi good about LB St. and Albany, but not enough to warrant a wager. in fact, I have Tennessee and Virginia teased 4.5. I guess my point is this: either today is the squarest of square days or the books have realized that the vast majority of bettors have an inherent "dog-value" lean in us. Especially come March Madness. That Vandy line was an absolute joke. I realize they couldn't get too carried away, but I was honestly expecting a 7-8 point line. GW is a mediocre team in a mediocre conference, and as I stated in my crappy "Baba's pick" thread (where I can be extremely self-indulgent and get away with it) they simply didn't belong in this tournament. Likewise, wtf was up with that Gtown line? I think the Memphis line is absolutely golden, as well, though I notice all the faves are getting a little boost right now, due to the day's events. You can get Wright at 10.5 when it was down to 9 last night. This could be an anomaly, but we could be looking at a 1st round where the faves not only cover the magic 67%, but obliterate it. So far, they are 8-0 with 8 easy covers. I'm just curious as to what those of you who have regular contact with oddsmakers and others "in the know" (like Buddy) feel about this trend playing out over the rest of round one. Perhaps this parity thing got overblown a little, eh? Belmont only 17 point dog against Gtown? GW 3.5 against Vandy? Stanford 5.5 against a Louisville team virtually playing at home? And I think once Memphis wins by 25-30, we'll be able to add them to the list...

imgv94 · 03-16-07, 05:26 AM

Everyone in this thread I respect..

babaoriley · 03-16-07, 02:37 PM

IMG, were you drinking last night? Just noticed you posted at 3:26 AM Pacific time. Must've been fun, my friend.