Home Court in College: What's it Worth in Points?

[Checkerboard]

1) How many points is home court generally responsible for in the setting of a CBB pointspread?

2) How many points generally would get added to the above number, if the home court has a particularly favourable advantage (ie. Duke, Kansas, Wisconsin and the like)?

Thanks for any feedback . . .

[gummo]

I think it's about 4 points on average, but it would be interesting if someone could break it down by team.

[Jay Edgar]

Here's what I would do for CBB:

(It's different from what I do in the NBA, and I'm not interested in doing it for CBB, someone else would need to.)

College basketball involves fewer games and far more uneven team schedules than the NBA (in the NBA nobody beats Athletes in Action at home by 44, in other words). But it does involve many, many home-and-homes or home-and-neutrals where both teams are unquestionably ready for the (conference) game. (Unlike the back-to-back laden NBA.)

I would go back as many years as I could and look at the swing in a team's results against the same opponent home-and-home (taking half of it) or home-and-neutral (taking all of it) in a particular year. The median of all of those dozens of swings would give you a very reliable indicator of how many points that particular home court is worth. In my opinion, the fact that you were looking at years and years of teams of varying strengths would make your numbers more reliable, not less reliable, if what you are trying to measure was the true value of the court itself. Which is all that you should be measuring here so long as you are elsewhere measuring the strength of this particular version of that team.

[Razz]

Here's a basic guideline with exceptions in parentheses that I think is fairly accurate:

SEC: 4 (Kentucky 5, Florida 5, Tennessee 5, Vandy 5, South Carolina 3)
ACC: 4 (Duke 5, North Carolina 5, Florida State 5, Virginia 5, Georgia Tech 5)
Big 10: 5 (Penn State 4, Minnesota 4)
Big East: 4 (Pitt 5, Syracuse 5, South Florida 3, Rutgers 3)
Big 12: 4 (Oklahoma State 5, Kansas 5, Colorado 5)
Pac 10: 4 (Washington State 5, Washington 5, Oregon 5)
MVC: 5
MWC: 4 (BYU 5, Air Force 5, Wyoming 5, New Mexico 5)
WAC: 3 (Hawaii 6, Utah State 5, Nevada 4, New Mexico State 4)
WCC: 3 (Gonzaga 5, St. Mary's 4, Santa Clara 4, Loyola Marymount 4, Portland 4)
C-USA: Memphis, UAB, Tulsa 4. Everyone else 3.
Big West, OVC: 3
Everyone else: 4 for teams near the top of the conference, 3 for the rest

[Checkerboard]

gummo, Jay Edgar, Razz . . . thanks for responding.

Jay Edgar, I was planning to go back a number of years for various considerations, but hadn't considered the idea for the court itself. Thanks.
Handicapping is an avocation for me, so hopefully I'll be able to get at that over the spring and summer when I traditionally don't wager on any sports.

Razz, thanks for the breakdown, really appreciate it.

[BuddyBear]

Great post Razz.....

[onlooker]

MWC: (BYU 5, Air Force 5, Wyoming 5, New Mexico 5)

What is your take on the rest of the confernce, 4?

[Razz]

Yeah, 4.

[imgv94]

great thread.

[onlooker]

I agree. This thread is a good one.