College Basketball Lines Getting Sharper?

trustbutverify · 01-25-07, 11:45 PM

I use a system whereby i bet on teams my fundamentals say should be the fav- but the line says dog, on the moneyline. Ive backtested this system and found that it works great in dec- but after that its poison. Have to wait until dec 1 to get meaningful numbers for comparison. Seems to confirm your feeling that ncaabb lines tighten up as the season progresses- dramaticaly.

Checkerboard · 01-26-07, 07:23 AM

I think so trustbutverify. I mean, I suppose it's just an observation of something obvious. As I'm learning more about various teams, so are the linemakers.

Another observation which also may be of the same ilk, is that smaller cards seem to have sharper lines. Like the Friday 'Ivy League' type card tonight.

If I find some time today, I'll handicap the games, but I suspect I won't find anything I like. Good day probably to take off from handicapping.

I notice our colleague pags11 has taken the last couple of Fridays off. I wonder if this is the reason why. Pags? If you get in here, and your reading this, can you please let us know? Thanks.

bigboydan · 01-26-07, 09:43 AM

I still feel there a bit loose right now myself. I think everyone will start seeing the early signs of this happening at the first week of February. Thats usually when we teams start jockeying for standings for the conference tourneys.

rolemand · 01-26-07, 10:06 AM

Typically I would say the standard answer would be to pick days to cap where there are games a plenty to pick from to find more loose lines.

trustbutverify · 01-26-07, 12:42 PM

Originally posted by rolemand

Typically I would say the standard answer would be to pick days to cap where there are games a plenty to pick from to find more loose lines.

No doubt the early season volume and abundance of strange matchups makes for some of the loosest lines in sports. Early ncaabb is a real profit center, probably for any reasonable approach. For my system- i am stunned by the contrast between pre and post Dec 31 games. Just drops off a cliff- and that goes back 10 seasons.

I'd like to know from Pags what his past results indicate about line efficiency after the year turns.

Checkerboard · 02-07-07, 12:27 AM

Originally posted by trustbutverify

No doubt the early season volume and abundance of strange matchups makes for some of the loosest lines in sports. Early ncaabb is a real profit center, probably for any reasonable approach. For my system- i am stunned by the contrast between pre and post Dec 31 games. Just drops off a cliff- and that goes back 10 seasons.

I'd like to know from Pags what his past results indicate about line efficiency after the year turns.

And it seems like there's another shift to more sharpness yet from January into February.

Razz · 02-07-07, 12:31 AM

I was looking for this thread when I posted in the College Basketball is so f'ed, but couldn't find it.

BuddyBear · 02-07-07, 01:49 AM

Yeah the lines are getting sharper but that's why those who beat it are called sharp....

Checkerboard · 02-07-07, 03:35 AM

Yes, I see now it's in two threads now. I was just in 'f*!#@*d'
asking the same thing . . . do you guys reduce your unit size as you feel sharper lines coming on or does it make more sense to bet more selectively at the same unit size (I'm flat betting right now, same as I have in NFL and it's worked for me there)?

pags11 · 02-07-07, 04:15 AM

I repeat, college basketball is ****ed...to quote my good friend razz (who's about as cool as a customer as there is out there), "it isn't exactly predictable."

I will probably have a nervous breakdown before the end of the season, but I'm a very sick man and I actually enjoy the journey...the best way I can explain it, is that betting college hoops is like dating a dancer (I've dated four of them so far in my lifetime)...it's a helluva ride, but it's also very stressful (psycho bitches and college hoops are very similar)...

imgv94 · 02-07-07, 04:23 AM

I can't pick a winner anymore..

Razz · 02-07-07, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by Checkerboard

Yes, I see now it's in two threads now. I was just in 'f*!#@*d'
asking the same thing . . . do you guys reduce your unit size as you feel sharper lines coming on or does it make more sense to bet more selectively at the same unit size (I'm flat betting right now, same as I have in NFL and it's worked for me there)?

Yeah, for most of January, I was making 1-2-3 unit plays, but everything has been one unit the last 10 days or so (though I did add half a unit to SDSU last night when the line went to 3).