Which teams have given up? (recent ATS records inside)

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  • QuantumLeap
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-22-08
    • 6878

    #1
    Which teams have given up? (recent ATS records inside)
    I was going to fade Cal today since they usually do horrible on the road so I dialed up their matchup. They played Washington who were 2-13 ATS including failing to cover their last 9 in a row so I stayed away from the game.

    Washington blew away Cal. I guess they felt it was there chance to go out with a bang and beat someone at home. Maybe it was Senior Day who knows.

    The point of this story is to not blindly bet bad teams.

    So I decided to see who had gone 1-4 ATS or worse in their last 5 games or so and fed a query into the Sports Database.

    The following have horrible ATS records since Feb 4.

    G w l p School
    3 0 3 0 CSNOR
    4 0 2 2 POR
    4 0 4 0 NMEXS
    4 0 4 0 DEP
    4 0 4 0 ARKPB
    5 0 4 0 STO
    5 0 4 1 QUINN
    5 0 3 0 MONST
    5 0 5 0 MCNST
    5 0 4 1 DET
    6 0 6 0 WINTH
    6 0 6 0 AIRFC
    6 1 5 0 SCSPAR
    6 1 5 0 PITT
    6 1 5 0 NAVY
    6 1 5 0 MSTM
    6 1 5 0 MISST
    6 1 5 0 HAW
    6 1 5 0 DRAKE
    6 1 5 0 COL
    6 1 5 0 CHASO
    6 1 5 0 ARK
    5 1 4 0 WGTON
    5 1 4 0 VTECH
    5 1 4 0 VCU
    5 1 4 0 STM
    5 1 4 0 SMU
    5 1 4 0 SF
    5 1 4 0 NORAL
    5 1 4 0 MCHST
    5 1 4 0 KST
    5 1 4 0 KANST
    5 1 4 0 JMAD
    5 1 4 0 FLATL
    5 1 4 0 COPST
    5 1 4 0 COLST
    5 1 4 0 CIN
    5 1 4 0 CHARL
    5 1 4 0 BGRN
    5 1 4 0 ALCST
  • QuantumLeap
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-22-08
    • 6878

    #2
    Just in case anyone wanted to know who was doing well lately in case you wanted to follow teams that might be needing to finish high in their conference or who might be on the bubble of getting a playoff bid, I have those numbers available here so I thought I would post them.

    However, for the purposes of this thread I thought I would concentrate on the losers. Feel free to make comments about winning teams as well.

    G w l p School
    5 4 1 0 YOUST
    5 4 1 0 XAVER
    5 4 1 0 WYOM
    5 4 1 0 STPET
    5 4 1 0 STBON
    5 4 1 0 OLMIS
    5 4 1 0 OHIO
    5 4 1 0 NWST
    5 4 1 0 MDESH
    5 4 1 0 MARS
    5 4 1 0 KC
    5 4 1 0 FSU
    5 4 1 0 CRE
    5 4 1 0 CLEM
    5 4 1 0 CALPO
    5 4 1 0 AMERU
    6 4 1 0 PRINC
    6 4 1 1 PEP
    6 4 1 1 IONA
    6 5 1 0 VMI
    6 5 1 0 VAL
    6 5 1 0 ULMON
    6 5 1 0 OKLST
    6 5 1 0 NFLA
    6 5 1 0 MICH
    6 5 1 0 LIPSC
    6 5 1 0 KENTY
    6 5 1 0 EMICH
    4 4 0 0 STFRP
    4 4 0 0 NEV
    4 4 0 0 MONT
    5 5 0 0 USC
    5 5 0 0 UCDAV
    5 5 0 0 MDBA
    5 4 0 1 MASS
    5 5 0 0 KAN
    5 5 0 0 HOF
    6 5 0 1 RAD
    6 6 0 0 MSU
    6 6 0 0 BELM
    Comment
    • QuantumLeap
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-22-08
      • 6878

      #3
      Fading the losers in the 1st post blindly would get you an 23-8 result today.

      Sunday we have the following:

      Detroit
      Mount St Mary
      Quinnipiac
      Cincinnati
      Comment
      • QuantumLeap
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 08-22-08
        • 6878

        #4
        OK, since I had such wildly successful numbers fading the losers I thought I would see how the teams with the good recent ATS records did.

        If you blindly followed teams with an ATS record of 80% or more in the last 5 games you would go 22-8 today.

        Interesting.

        Sunday we have the following teams with a good recent ATS record:

        St Peter's
        Creighton
        American University
        St. Francis (PA)
        USC
        Comment
        • QuantumLeap
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 08-22-08
          • 6878

          #5
          Originally posted by QuantumLeap
          Fading the losers in the 1st post blindly would get you an 23-8 result today.

          Sunday we have the following:

          Detroit
          Mount St Mary
          Quinnipiac
          Cincinnati
          Win) Detroit
          Win) Mount St Mary
          Loss) Quinnipiac
          Loss) Cincinnati

          Fading the losers went 2-2 today for a weekend result of 25-10.
          Comment
          • 2Shirts
            SBR MVP
            • 03-11-11
            • 4402

            #6
            Bryant
            Comment
            • pimike
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 03-23-08
              • 37139

              #7
              This guy is sharp
              Comment
              • gojetsgomoxies
                SBR MVP
                • 09-04-12
                • 4222

                #8
                do bad teams give up late in NCAA basketball seasons?... i'm thinking most of these players are happy to be playing college basketball teams.... professional leagues and college football are different. there, i would expect to set a big late-season letdown and/or play for next season.

                hot teams at end of season are interesting, they are playing for something
                Comment
                • QuantumLeap
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 08-22-08
                  • 6878

                  #9
                  Originally posted by pimike
                  This guy is sharp
                  Thanks Mike.
                  Comment
                  • QuantumLeap
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 08-22-08
                    • 6878

                    #10
                    Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies
                    do bad teams give up late in NCAA basketball seasons?... i'm thinking most of these players are happy to be playing college basketball teams.... professional leagues and college football are different. there, i would expect to set a big late-season letdown and/or play for next season.

                    hot teams at end of season are interesting, they are playing for something
                    Good input. I just thought of something reading your post. Are the subs who don't get much playing time on poor teams now getting more playing time and want to show how much they should have played more? I can see bench players getting put in during this time of the year and then doing well.
                    Comment
                    • QuantumLeap
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 08-22-08
                      • 6878

                      #11
                      Originally posted by QuantumLeap
                      OK, since I had such wildly successful numbers fading the losers I thought I would see how the teams with the good recent ATS records did.

                      If you blindly followed teams with an ATS record of 80% or more in the last 5 games you would go 22-8 today.

                      Interesting.

                      Sunday we have the following teams with a good recent ATS record:

                      St Peter's
                      Creighton
                      American University
                      St. Francis (PA)
                      USC
                      Winner) St Peter's
                      Winner) Creighton
                      Winner) American University
                      Loss) St. Francis (PA)
                      Loss) USC

                      Blindly following teams who were 4-1 ATS or better their last 5 games went 3-2 on Sunday. Combined with Saturday's results it was 25-10 for the weekend. I wonder if this only works for Saturdays. I'll continue to put together a new spreadsheet since ATS records have changed over the weekend and will continue to track this.

                      I think I'll just do one thread later in the week that includes the week day results and then start another thread for next Saturday.
                      Comment
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