Friday night we have Yale who is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
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I should have at least mentioned something about Cal Poly vs. Hawaii last night. Cal Poly has a very poor record overall and a poor ATS record at home as mentioned.
So as mentioned in my previous post they have an average road ATS record. Even with this the perception is very negative. That plays into my main theory that the line is potentially being off.
I didn't bet Cal Poly because they only had an average road ATS record. Perhaps I should have considered the line being off due to misperception instead of seeing an average ATS record. Cal Poly easily covered.Comment -
Canisius broke it's 3-game losing streak ATS with their win over St. Pete. They had earlier ATS win streaks in the season so I figure they may have "righted the ship now".
They play Siena who has not won won on the road all year. They have no business being favored in this game even if it is only by 1 point. I had put Siena on my radar previously when I mentioned a lean with Manhattan.
My pick is Canisius +1.Last edited by QuantumLeap; 01-17-20, 05:53 PM.Comment -
I'm not playing furman because i think wofford is a dangerous team in any situation. furman road numbers are amazing and overall ats as well. road they are 37-16 road ats since nov. '16 and 26-6 ats as a road fav since jan '16, and 70-43 ats overall in that time frame.
that 37-16 is 68% and the 26-6 road fav number is 81%. and the 70-43 is a good 61% as well.
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Michigan St is obviously a bigger conf. team, but what they are doing is amazing. 45-15 ats as home fav over the last 4 years. i don't even know if the old duke teams could touch that number at home. not much is made of their home court advantage as other teams but they are really dominant going 57-4 su in that time frame.
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gl. over the years they play well in close games and games with small lines. spreads between +/- 3 they are 16-7 ats.
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Should I subscribe here or what???Comment -
Pull up a chair.
This thread originally started with small schools and kind of morphed into "ATS home/road records" combined with "Teams where the record may be misleading".
Another set of teams coming up is Michigan at Iowa. Michigan 11-5 so they must be a pretty good team, right? Well they are 1-4 on the road ATS so think twice about betting them.
Iowa is 12-5 but they are 7-1 ATS at home. This -6 line initially looks favorable to Michigan. How can a team beat a 11-5 team like Michigan by more than 6 points? It can be done when they have such a horrible road ATS record.
Look for Iowa's home cooking to cover this spread easily.
Iowa -6.Comment -
Great night tonight!
I thought I would summarize some of the trends in this thread. These are merely suggestions. I've decided to not do totals. Just too much info.
If anyone wants to post totals please feel free to do so.
What we've discussed so far:
Bet on (either home or away)
Cal Baptist
Stanford
So Dakota St
San Diego St
Yale
Hartford
Bet on at home
Purdue
Summit Conference teams (except Denver & W Illinios)
Michigan St (especially as a favorite)
Cal
Bet when on the road
Canisius
Oral Roberts (?)
Furman (especially when a favorite)
Fade (either home or away)
(none yet)
Fade on the road
(none yet)
Fade at home
Cal Poly
SienaComment -
This Baylor/Ok St game has me perplexed. Baylor is on a roll and has an excellent road ATS record over the last couple years (14-9-1). They also have been going under the total by double digits in 6 out of their last 8 games and Ok St has not been scoring much.
If there were such a thing as a trap this would be it. I know this thread is to try to seek out games that were misleading but sometimes you just have to go with the obvious.
Baylor -5 1/2
Baylor/Ok St under 127 1/2Comment -
Another trap is Butler -4 over DePaul. Looks too good to be true. DePaul played a good game against Villanova but lost in OT.
I'm going with DePaul +4.Comment -
Getting back to the small schools. Detroit is 5-1 ATS in their last 6.
Detroit Mercy +6 1/2Comment -
Another one that seems off. It's #4 Auburn (15-1) as an underdog.
Taking Florida -2 1/2Comment -
OP, thank you for this great thread................ it doesn't surprise me that non-major NCAA basketball is beatable. of course, it's alot of work to follow it too. whereas something like duke-louisville isn't that much work to follow. and something the like the NFL (i know i changed sports) is pretty easy to follow.
i'm interested about HFA as a concept, both obscure and full-on huge crowds............ is there any reason for a cal-poly-SLO or cal baptist to be much better at home or on road ATS? i could expand that to alot of teams.. what's the basis when the crowds aren't necessarily that big? and travel isn't that ardous?Comment -
Will check back later.
Going with Arky over Ky.Comment -
Keep the good times rolling brothers, see you in a few weeks!!Comment -
Yes, I am finding it's a bit more work to follow the small schools. I have been rather lazy in the past and I am finding that to be a recipe for disaster. In the past I've been looking for indicators to tell me which side to bet and that works sometimes but other times it doesn't.
I'm just now following HFA but I really don't know why some teams do so well and others are horrible at home like Cal Poly. As far as Cal Baptist, they are 11-4 ATS this year so it hasn't mattered whether they play at home or on the road. The nice thing about them, and this is partly why I started this thread, is that they can fly under the radar of the books so when they have such a good ATS record they don't get the same attention as a bigger school.Comment -
Here's another one. New Mexico is 15-4 and are 5 1/2 point underdogs to 10-9 UNLV. What's wrong with this picture? Maybe the fact that UNM is 9-20 ATS on the road since 2016.
UNLV -5 1/2Comment -
Sorry for the late post. Here's one I've been waiting for.
Alabama A&M are 12-4 ATS at home since 2016.
Alabama A&M PK over Alabama StComment -
13-4 Indiana is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 and are 0-3 ATS on the road. It seems Indiana only plays well enough to win.
We have a revenge factor here where Nebraska lost in OT to Indiana last month. Nebraska may not win this outright but I expect them to at least keep it close.
Nebraska +6 1/2Comment -
14-5 Utah St only a 1 1/2 point favorite over 11-8 Boise St? What gives? Utah St 10-21 ATS on the road in the last 2 years including 0-4 ATS this year. Boise St 6-2 ATS at home this year.
Boise St +2Comment -
Here's another one. I don't have a home/away angle, just the same angle of being hard to believe.
13-6 New Mexico St are only 3 1/2 point favorites over 10-9 Seattle.
Seattle +3 1/2.Comment -
One more based upon home/away.
6-9 Idaho St is 2-6 straight up on the road this season but is 6-2 ATS on the road this year giving a false impression of how they seem to fight. Portland St is 5-2 SU at home but 1-3 ATS.
Idaho St +7 1/2Comment -
One last one for the same reasons.
UC Santa Barb +2 over HawaiiComment
