Good evening,
We will posting First Half Team Unders again this season. Below is our reasoning for handicapping these that we stated last year:
Generally the first half team total in college hoops will be between 46% and 48% of the game team total, so yes, some can appear quite low. However, the first half totals are generally not subject to circumstances which can affect a team total under. For example:
1 Behind teams are not intentionally fouling in the first half to regain possession of the ball.
2. Due to the above reason, teams are shooting less free throws near the end of the first half, than they do near the end of the game.
3. Many coaches play for the last shot at the end of the half thus using up the clock.
4. There is no chance for overtime in the first half.
That's just a few reasons I feel first half unders for certain teams can be valuable, however I am looking at some key factors of these teams which include, but not limited to: 1. offensive efficiency 2. defensive efficiency of the opposing team 3. average possession length 3. FTA/FGA per game 4. the opposing teams defensive FTA/FGA 4. effective FG % 5. opposing team's effective FG %. Finally I look at Ken Pom's predicted team score and multiply that by 47%. After all that, and a few other things, if I see value, it'a a play.
A couple of things to keep in mind:
1. There will be a lot of plays. I generally don't like playing so many plays every day, but if it qualifies, I'll post it.
2. Many Books do not offer first half team totals on the "extra games" and most of the plays will be on the "extra games". I know Heritage does offer these games, and maybe other members can post other books that do offer these.
3. It's a long season. Remember it's not a sprint, it's a marathon.
4. Last year's results do not guarantee future results, so be careful.
5 Due to other obligations, I will not be able to post every day, but I will try my best.
Good luck to all.
DD
We will posting First Half Team Unders again this season. Below is our reasoning for handicapping these that we stated last year:
Generally the first half team total in college hoops will be between 46% and 48% of the game team total, so yes, some can appear quite low. However, the first half totals are generally not subject to circumstances which can affect a team total under. For example:
1 Behind teams are not intentionally fouling in the first half to regain possession of the ball.
2. Due to the above reason, teams are shooting less free throws near the end of the first half, than they do near the end of the game.
3. Many coaches play for the last shot at the end of the half thus using up the clock.
4. There is no chance for overtime in the first half.
That's just a few reasons I feel first half unders for certain teams can be valuable, however I am looking at some key factors of these teams which include, but not limited to: 1. offensive efficiency 2. defensive efficiency of the opposing team 3. average possession length 3. FTA/FGA per game 4. the opposing teams defensive FTA/FGA 4. effective FG % 5. opposing team's effective FG %. Finally I look at Ken Pom's predicted team score and multiply that by 47%. After all that, and a few other things, if I see value, it'a a play.
A couple of things to keep in mind:
1. There will be a lot of plays. I generally don't like playing so many plays every day, but if it qualifies, I'll post it.
2. Many Books do not offer first half team totals on the "extra games" and most of the plays will be on the "extra games". I know Heritage does offer these games, and maybe other members can post other books that do offer these.
3. It's a long season. Remember it's not a sprint, it's a marathon.
4. Last year's results do not guarantee future results, so be careful.
5 Due to other obligations, I will not be able to post every day, but I will try my best.
Good luck to all.
DD
matt711 gave doubledime 5 Betpoint(s) for this post.
