CCB (LOCKS ONLY) Thread

[flakeandbake]

Making a "LOCKS ONLY" Thread to track CCB picks.

[Strategy]: Looking at what % side the public is betting on Vegasinsider.com (not sure how reliable that site is - comment if you have a better one) with an emphasis on finding Reverse Line Movement. To me, Reverse Line Movement is when the line moves between 1-2 points the opposite way with at least 60% or more of the public betting on the other side.

(Fictitious Example:) The line opens and Kansas is +2 at Iowa State and 75% of the public is betting on Kansas. However, the line is moving the opposite way and Kansas is now +3 and then later becomes +4 before tip off (notice the line is moving in the opposite direction as it traditionally should). In this fake example, this is Reverse Line Movement and I would be looking to bet on Iowa State. I feel that this strategy works best when the line is less that 5 points with an unranked home team favored vs. a ranked road team that is getting points.

LFG!

[flakeandbake]

01/17/2017: Record (0-0-0) +0 UNITS

-U158 PITT: 2 UNITS------------------------[1.5 PTs RLM w/ 55% of public on Over]
-U145 ARKANSAS: 1.5 UNITS--------------[1 PT RLM w/ 97% of public on Over]
-MICHIGAN +10.5: 1 UNIT------------------[.5-1 PT RLM w/ 70% of public on Wisco]

*Looking into betting the Ole Miss game later @9 pm

[flakeandbake]

Things I like but am NOTpulling the trigger on: Texas O131, Purdue U143.5, Kentucky U158.5

(Parlay 20 to win 1020: Toronto Raptors U227.5, Denver Nuggets U229.5, Pitt U158, Pitt ML +125, Illinois +11, Mississippi +3)

[flakeandbake]

GL to all !

[flakeandbake]

Pitt vs NC State needs 89 pts to go over. Arkansas vs Tex A&M needs 77 pts to go over... looking good here... hard decision whether or not to middle these games and lay off 25%

[flakeandbake]

(11/17/17 cont.):

-O83 Pitt 2nd Half: .6 Units------------------- 6 point middle
-O77 Arkansas 2nd half: .3 Units------------6 point middle

*Decided to try to "middle" the second half and lay some off. For those that don't know what a "middle" is- it's when your bet is working for you and you take the opposite side at half-time (or with a live spread) that gives you the opportunity to win your first bet, as well as the bet you just placed.

For example, the half time score to Pitt vs. NC State was 34 to 35 (69 Pts) and the second half O/U was 83 points - 6 pts lower than my original bet of U158. By taking the over of 83 points I now have 2 units on U158 and .6 units on the O150. This gives me multiple ways to make money in this game, as well as minimize some of my risk.

[flakeandbake]

(01/17/17)

TENNESSEE U151: 1 UNIT

*Sorry I forgot to post b4 game

[flakeandbake]

SUMMARY (11/17/2017): 5-1-0 +4.8 UNITS

*Went 4-0 on my picks tonight. The only loss was the 2nd Half over of Arkansas where I tried to middle my under bet. good day

[qman16]

BINGO..thats looks like 3 winners to me! good job Flake!

[flakeandbake]

Thanks bro. I'll post again if I make a play tonight but in all honesty tonight looks like Trap City, USA.

I like U Norte Dame, U WVU, U LSU, Nebraska, Wake Forest, TCU, O TCU, Indiana, and U Indiana... but so does everyone else and I hate the way the lines are moving.

[flakeandbake]

01/18/2017: Current Record 5-1-0

-U63.5 1st H Florida: .5 Units
-U135 Florida: .5 Units----------- Big game here. At first glance appears like the over is the play and that's exactly what the public thinks. However, I think they come out slow. Florida averages 79 ppg but SC only letting up 59.5 ppg. If you look at some of SC's match ups they've been low scoring. The line however is moving with the public so I'm betting small (remember I go for Reverse Line Movement).

Let's get this lock train rolling !

[flakeandbake]

-U Notre Dame 155.5: 2 Units-----------a lot of ppl on the over and line is holding pretty strong
-U Indiana 149: 1 Units---------------don't think it will be that high scoring. no reverse line movement though
-Indiana ML: 1 Unit------------------betting with the public on this one

[flakeandbake]

-Florida State and Massachusetts ML Parlay: 1 Unit (-107)
-Florida State -2.5 1st H: .5 Units
-Oaklahoma +17: .5 Units

[flakeandbake]

-Florida State -1.5 2nd H: .5 Units

[flakeandbake]

-Indiana -PK 2nd H: .3 units

[flakeandbake]

-U 163.5 LSU: .5 Units

[flakeandbake]

Total Record: 11-5 (+5.8 Units)

*Looking into IOWA & USC tonight

[Locknessmonstor]

www.scoresandodds.com/casinogrid

[Locknessmonstor]

Hit lines, it will refresh, then click vegas odds, should be another option there for you

[Locknessmonstor]

60% with a dog, 70% with a favorite should work a little better over time!

[flakeandbake]

Thanks dude! Much appreciated

[flakeandbake]

11/19/17:

-Iowa State ML: Risking 2.4 to win Units

[flakeandbake]

-USC +4: 2 Units