Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com claims that his bracket beat Vegas on last years. I am a bit sceptical, as his system is basically averaging a few computer power ratings with some adjustements (preseason ranking, travel distance, injuries). So, I am taking him to a test. I am using his winning probabilities from each match, and betting them as moneylines where they show value, for an amount of Kelly betting of a fixed bankroll ($1728).
I am shopping always for best price, which means I usually offer at matchbook on gameday, until I got bought, find a good price elsewhere ($25 limits at 5Dimes reduced, doh), or place best available price a few minutes before tipoff.
I am actually placing those bets. Even if they are random picks, usually got a price close to 0EV compared with market no-vig price. So, not much risk for me.
On the first four games, 538 went with the dog on every game, and was very high on Vanderbilt (their line was +107, I got it a +167). 1-3 on those. However, on next round games it likes mostly favorites. For tomorrow it likes Utah and Iowa St as faves, and Buffalo as a big dog.
Current results:
Past games and tomorrow:
I am shopping always for best price, which means I usually offer at matchbook on gameday, until I got bought, find a good price elsewhere ($25 limits at 5Dimes reduced, doh), or place best available price a few minutes before tipoff.
I am actually placing those bets. Even if they are random picks, usually got a price close to 0EV compared with market no-vig price. So, not much risk for me.
On the first four games, 538 went with the dog on every game, and was very high on Vanderbilt (their line was +107, I got it a +167). 1-3 on those. However, on next round games it likes mostly favorites. For tomorrow it likes Utah and Iowa St as faves, and Buffalo as a big dog.
Current results:
| Date | Book | Team | 538 l | Line | Price | Risked | Grade | Decimal | Bet res | Balance |
| $0.00 | ||||||||||
| 15-mar-16 | Greek | Farleigh Dickinson | 205 | ML | 225 | $50.04 | 0 | 2.25 | -$50.04 | -$50.04 |
| 15-mar-16 | 5dimes | Vanderbilt | 107 | ML | 167 | $25.00 | 0 | 1.67 | -$25.00 | -$75.04 |
| 15-mar-16 | Matchbook | Vanderbilt | 107 | ML | 170 | $268.66 | 0 | 1.7 | -$268.66 | -$343.70 |
| 16-mar-16 | Matchbook | Holy Cross | 108 | ML | 127 | $122.15 | 1 | 1.27 | $155.13 | -$188.57 |
| 16-mar-16 | Matchbook | Tulsa | 116 | ML | 123 | $41.92 | 0 | 1.23 | -$41.92 | -$230.49 |
| Time | Rot-Team | ML | 538 l | EV | |
| Tue 3/15 | 543 Fairleigh Dickinson | 225 | 205 | 0.07 | |
| 6:40PM | 544 Florida Gulf Coast | -230 | -205 | -0.04 | |
| Tue 3/15 | 545 Vanderbilt | 167 | 107 | 0.29 | |
| 9:10PM | 546 Wichita State | -175 | -107 | -0.19 | |
| Wed 3/16 | 619 Southern | -130 | -108 | -0.08 | |
| 6:40PM | 620 Holy Cross | 127 | 108 | 0.09 | |
| Wed 3/16 | 621 Tulsa | 123 | 116 | 0.03 | |
| 9:10PM | 622 Michigan | -125 | -116 | -0.03 | |
| Thu 3/17 | 717 Buffalo | 1075 | 602 | 0.67 | |
| 6:50PM | 718 Miami Florida | -1350 | -602 | -0.08 | |
| Thu 3/17 | 719 Wichita State | 113 | -102 | 0.07 | |
| 9:20PM | 720 Arizona | -123 | 102 | -0.10 | |
| Thu 3/17 | 721 Yale | 185 | 158 | 0.10 | |
| 2:45PM | 722 Baylor | -200 | -158 | -0.08 | |
| Thu 3/17 | 723 NC Wilmington | 520 | 549 | -0.05 | |
| 12:15PM | 724 Duke | -630 | -549 | -0.02 | |
| Thu 3/17 | 725 Florida Gulf Coast | 7000 | 6427 | 0.09 | |
| 7:20PM | 726 North Carolina | -18500 | -6427 | -0.01 | |
| Thu 3/17 | 727 Providence | -128 | -165 | 0.11 | |
| 9:50PM | 728 USC | 118 | 165 | -0.18 | |
| Thu 3/17 | 729 Hampton | 8500 | 5641 | 0.50 | |
| 3:10PM | 730 Virginia | -23000 | -5641 | -0.01 | |
| Thu 3/17 | 731 Butler | -185 | -202 | 0.03 | |
| 12:40PM | 732 Texas Tech | 170 | 202 | -0.11 | |
| Thu 3/17 | 733 Austin Peay | 13000 | 10177 | 0.27 | |
| 4:00PM | 734 Kansas | -39000 | -10177 | -0.01 | |
| Thu 3/17 | 735 Connecticut | -165 | -175 | 0.02 | |
| 1:30PM | 736 Colorado | 155 | 175 | -0.07 | |
| Thu 3/17 | 737 Tennessee Chattanooga | 660 | 712 | -0.06 | |
| 7:10PM | 738 Indiana U | -840 | -712 | -0.02 | |
| Thu 3/17 | 739 Stony Brook | 1000 | 1239 | -0.18 | |
| 9:40PM | 740 Kentucky | -1200 | -1239 | 0.00 | |
| Thu 3/17 | 741 Arkansas Little Rock | 400 | 533 | -0.21 | |
| 4:30PM | 742 Purdue | -450 | -533 | 0.03 | |
| Thu 3/17 | 743 Iona | 300 | 528 | -0.36 | |
| 2:00PM | 744 Iowa State | -330 | -528 | 0.10 | |
| Thu 3/17 | 745 Fresno State | 380 | 670 | -0.38 | |
| 7:25PM | 746 Utah U | -430 | -670 | 0.07 | |
| Thu 3/17 | 747 Gonzaga | -120 | -151 | 0.10 | |
| 9:55PM | 748 Seton Hall | 110 | 151 | -0.16 |