Too Good To Be True (TGTBT) Saturday

[QuantumLeap]

Post your games that seem too good to be true. I hope to have some picks in here before the noon games.

[QuantumLeap]

DePaul +4 over Seton Hall (1st half)
I know I said I wasn't going to pick a bad team to beat a good team but this was just too good to be true. We saw Okie State stay with Texas last night but in the end Texas prevailed. That's why I'm taking the 1st half here.

[QuantumLeap]

St. John's +5 over Providence (1st half)
Some thing going on here. A bad team that has a bad recent record that may mail it in late in the game.

[pattymayo]

is this strategy working? I feel like you could theoretically pull out any struggling team who is a big underdog and make a case that it's a "too good to be true" play.

[betandwin999]

TGTBT check out Vegas Line Reader thread. He finds lines that are wrong so basically same thing your doing.

Rutgers Money Line -135

Line should be Minnesota -5 and its Rutgers -2. The injuries and suspensions to Minn have moved the line 7 Points.

[QuantumLeap]

is this strategy working? I feel like you could theoretically pull out any struggling team who is a big underdog and make a case that it's a "too good to be true" play.

It's going a little under .500 with my picks lately. I stopped doing it a few days ago with the struggling teams because they let down toward the end of the game so I'm trying the 1st half with them.

[QuantumLeap]

TGTBT check out Vegas Line Reader thread. He finds lines that are wrong so basically same thing your doing.

Rutgers Money Line -135

Line should be Minnesota -5 and its Rutgers -2. The injuries and suspensions to Minn have moved the line 7 Points.

Thanks. I'll check that out.

Can you tell us a little more about this guy?

[betandwin999]

He knows what the lines are supposed to be each day and finds the ones that are wrong.

Had Iona last night should of been -8.5 was -12.5 and won easy.

65% last 4 months.

[funnyb25]

He knows what the lines are supposed to be each day and finds the ones that are wrong.

Had Iona last night should of been -8.5 was -12.5 and won easy.

65% last 4 months.

you work for this guy?

[QuantumLeap]

depaul +4 over seton hall (1st half)
i know i said i wasn't going to pick a bad team to beat a good team but this was just too good to be true. We saw okie state stay with texas last night but in the end texas prevailed. That's why i'm taking the 1st half here.

Push!

[QuantumLeap]

TCU +7 1/2 over Oklahoma (1st half)

[drbellhead]

USC +2.5 at home

[iloseagain]

BYU -15 is TGTBT. Take the dog

[QuantumLeap]

TCU is a winner but St. John's is a big loss.
Looks like DePaul gave up in the 2nd half like I thought they might.

[iloseagain]

yep i took okla 2h -8 and rutgers 2h +4 because i think okla will build a lead in the 2h and TCU will give up.. Also think Minnesota is already checked out and Rutgers should be able to tie the 2h at worst.

edit: 9-2 okla already

[QuantumLeap]

yep i took okla 2h -8 and rutgers 2h +4 because i think okla will build a lead in the 2h and TCU will give up.. Also think Minnesota is already checked out and Rutgers should be able to tie the 2h at worst.

edit: 9-2 okla already

I was thinking about taking Seton Hall -3 for the 2nd half but my head is all screwed up with 2nd half bets so I decided to leave it alone.

Edit: I see St. John's came back a little in the 2nd half against Providence. This is why I don't bet 2nd half lines.

[iloseagain]

I was thinking about taking Seton Hall -3 for the 2nd half but my head is all screwed up with 2nd half bets so I decided to leave it alone.

Edit: I see St. John's came back a little in the 2nd half against Providence. This is why I don't bet 2nd half lines.

2h's are tough, but what i typically look for is a big favorite at home, that is losing/tied at the half.. They usually come back with a very strong 2h.. I know Okla is on the road, but I like it either way.. I usually only play home teams in 2hs, but i liked this one too much

edit: and this is why i only play the home teams.. TCU has gotten demolished by everyone they play and Okla cant get the lead past 2-4 pts.. unreal

[QuantumLeap]

2h's are tough, but what i typically look for is a big favorite at home, that is losing/tied at the half.. They usually come back with a very strong 2h.. I know Okla is on the road, but I like it either way.. I usually only play home teams in 2hs, but i liked this one too much

edit: and this is why i only play the home teams.. TCU has gotten demolished by everyone they play and Okla cant get the lead past 2-4 pts.. unreal

I think a big part of the TGTBT games is that people remember the times we predict TCU covering Oklahoma or St. John's almost beating Seton Hall. What they don't remember is the times these TGTBT games just go the way most people think they should. It's hard to find an advantage.

[QuantumLeap]

Looking at possibly taking Kansas State and ASU.

[LtDarsh]

do you like george washington?

[iloseagain]

do you like george washington?

g wash is going to win this game.

[QuantumLeap]

K State +5 1/2 over Texas Tech

Georgia State +7 over UL-Monroe

[QuantumLeap]

do you like george washington?

I don't see them fitting the TGTBT scenario. They have a good road record along with a good recent record.

[iloseagain]

yep i took okla 2h -8 and rutgers 2h +4 because i think okla will build a lead in the 2h and TCU will give up.. Also think Minnesota is already checked out and Rutgers should be able to tie the 2h at worst.

edit: 9-2 okla already

rutgers covers and okla wins by 7 in the 2.. FVKC ME and my luck, my god. They were up 11 in the 2h with like 1:30 left... I just seriously cant remember the last time ive gotten lucky to win a game.. And I swear im not just saying this.. The amount of games I get an "unlucky" loss compared to the games i get a "lucky" win is like 85/15

[QuantumLeap]

I was going to put Creighton down but I thought +10 wasn't TGTBT. They're leading early 29-20 on the road.

[QuantumLeap]

rutgers covers and okla wins by 7 in the 2.. FVKC ME and my luck, my god. They were up 11 in the 2h with like 1:30 left... I just seriously cant remember the last time ive gotten lucky to win a game.. And I swear im not just saying this.. The amount of games I get an "unlucky" loss compared to the games i get a "lucky" win is like 85/15

I've been keeping track of it. It's more like 70/30 for me.

I got a lucky push with DePaul at the end of the first half and then Green Bay was only leading by 3 with about 5 minutes left. They got it up to 7 or 8 with a minute left. When I checked I noticed I pushed with -12.

[iloseagain]

i have xavier ML in a parlay... lol cmon they are garbage right now

[iloseagain]

xavier 2h may be a play for me based on line.. This is a perfect example of what i am talking about.. big home fav, tied or losing at half.. although they are up 3 now... I think this huge momemtum swing theyve gathered in the last 6-7 min of this half will carry over to the 2h and end up blowing them out.. lets see

[QuantumLeap]

USC +2.5 at home

I love betting against USC. I had this game on my radar already.

Thanks for posting.

[drbellhead]

I love betting against USC. I had this game on my radar already.

Thanks for posting.

USC 17-2 at home
lost 89-81 earlier in the year to Oregon
have to think that is why the line is 2.5 pts.....

[iloseagain]

I love betting against USC. I had this game on my radar already.

Thanks for posting.

usc looked real good last game. oregon coming off big win last game @ UCLA... Is oregon that good that they should be favored here? They looked dece against UCLA but UCLA sucks..

[Calgunner23]

Tempted to take Santa Clara +15.5 but that's on a whim. BYU has beat the bricks off of them the last 2 times, but this being a tournament game I would think SC steps it up just enough.

Crazy talent mismatch though, I think the line moved from -12.5 to -15.5 so I'm probably on the wrong side here. Like I said, just a gut feeling. They'll probably get their asses kicked! Lol

[Calgunner23]

Duke or North Carolina QL??

[iloseagain]

xavier 2h may be a play for me based on line.. This is a perfect example of what i am talking about.. big home fav, tied or losing at half.. although they are up 3 now... I think this huge momemtum swing theyve gathered in the last 6-7 min of this half will carry over to the 2h and end up blowing them out.. lets see

yep, i played it. Lets see how this works out

edit: 11-0 xavier run to start

[iloseagain]

Tempted to take Santa Clara +15.5 but that's on a whim. BYU has beat the bricks off of them the last 2 times, but this being a tournament game I would think SC steps it up just enough.

Crazy talent mismatch though, I think the line moved from -12.5 to -15.5 so I'm probably on the wrong side here. Like I said, just a gut feeling. They'll probably get their asses kicked! Lol

Another guy pointed out that BYU beat them by 30 twice, and the spread is only -15... Seems awfully low based on the past 2 games..

This reminded me of Wichita and Loyola Chi from yesterday.. Wich beat them by 25+ both times and then they were only -18 yesterday and Wich only won by 8... I could see that happening here.. Its SClara or nothing for me