Too Good To Be True (TGTBT) Sunday

[QuantumLeap]

Let's get some discussion going. I'll try to have my picks at least 15 minutes before game time but it could be 10 minutes before.

Today is Sunday, the day when I post my weekly results. I also like to look over the past picks one-by-one to see where I may have picked correctly so I can repeat it in the future and also to see my mistakes so I can try to avoid them.

I think one of the things I remember the most about this system is not its record (it's about even this week) but I remember the underdogs that win outright. Perhaps I'll do an analysis of just taking the ML instead of the spread to see the results.

[posey_mvp]

Not sure if this is TGTBT but what do you think about Colorado state today +3.5 at Nevada?

[drbellhead]

Hey GL, do you take into account some of the games going on right now and over the next week or so, are also senor games, the final home game for some of the schools for the year as well as the final home games for the senors and how this effects the spreads and or teams play in these final home games? I always say that I will follow it but forget to till after I miss a few games. I would love to hear your insight on these games. Thanks, and GL with ur picks..........

[QuantumLeap]

Not sure if this is TGTBT but what do you think about Colorado state today +3.5 at Nevada?

That's a good one to keep an eye on.

[QuantumLeap]

Hey GL, do you take into account some of the games going on right now and over the next week or so, are also senor games, the final home game for some of the schools for the year as well as the final home games for the senors and how this effects the spreads and or teams play in these final home games? I always say that I will follow it but forget to till after I miss a few games. I would love to hear your insight on these games. Thanks, and GL with ur picks..........

Yes, of course that plays into it. Thanks for mentioning it.

I'm looking at a game (not in this system) that takes that into consideration. I can't see ASU getting to within 10 of Colorado and I believe it is their Senior Day. I'll have to check to make sure.

[sleeper]

Duke as a pick?! TGTBT

[QuantumLeap]

Duke as a pick?! TGTBT

I'm looking at that one, believe me. Depending on where you look, over 70% on Duke.

[QuantumLeap]

I think i'm going to pass on the Duke/Pitt game. Just doesn't feel right.

[posey_mvp]

Did you see the line movement in Belmont game? Something fishy? They were -1.5 to +1 now..

[iloseagain]

Love colorado -7.5..

Both duke and xavier looked TGTBT.. I took seton 1h and pit 1h.. These short home dogs been cashing 1h's at an alarming rate lately

[QuantumLeap]

Did you see the line movement in Belmont game? Something fishy? They were -1.5 to +1 now..

Yeah. I usually don't lay attention unless I see ML movement along with it.

[QuantumLeap]

Love colorado -7.5..

Both duke and xavier looked TGTBT.. I took seton 1h and pit 1h.. These short home dogs been cashing 1h's at an alarming rate lately

Yeah, high % on Duke and Xavier. It might be early but it looks like I should have played Pitt. I just had bad luck with them in the past. Lesson learned I guess.

[iloseagain]

yep i played them against louisville and got burned

[QuantumLeap]

I was just thinking about this thread and thought that it shouldn't just be about me getting a big ego about these games. What's most important is that the people reading this thread can see that two teams having a high % on them (Duke and Xavier) can be TGTBT. Hopefully some of you who have been reading these threads over the past 2 weeks won't wait for one of us to post our pick and you will be able to get a good eye for it yourself.

I think once we see March Madness get into full swing we will have some good scenarios to bet on.

[QuantumLeap]

Not sure if this is TGTBT but what do you think about Colorado state today +3.5 at Nevada?

Yep, gonna go with your suggestion.

Colorado St. +2 1/2 over Nevada

CSU is 3-5 in their last 8 and are 3-6 on the road.
Nevada is 7-3 in their last 10 and are 10-2 at home.

Large % on Nevada.

Take the Rams.

[iloseagain]

Yep, gonna go with your suggestion.

Colorado St. +2 1/2 over Nevada

CSU is 3-5 in their last 8 and are 3-6 on the road.
Nevada is 7-3 in their last 10 and are 10-2 at home.

Large % on Nevada.

Take the Rams.

oh man this play looks juicy. This game is another definition of TGTBT.. Lets hope it goes better than the W Mich game for me lol

[QuantumLeap]

Duke as a pick?! TGTBT

Nice call. Thanks for chiming in.

[iloseagain]

i took colo st 1h +1.5 too .. up 44-38 now lets goo

[QuantumLeap]

i took colo st 1h +1.5 too .. up 44-38 now lets goo

Nice call on the 1h.

CSU didn't score for about 5 mins. Now they are stepping it up. Coming down to the wire.

Regardless of how this ends I'm happy with the pick. I don't know too many people would expect CSU to do so well.

[QuantumLeap]

Love colorado -7.5..

Both duke and xavier looked TGTBT.. I took seton 1h and pit 1h.. These short home dogs been cashing 1h's at an alarming rate lately

Did you see the end of that Colorado game? I have to admit that was a square bet. Colorado hit some late shots to cover.

[QuantumLeap]

WTF??? No OT!!

[iloseagain]

Did you see the end of that Colorado game? I have to admit that was a square bet. Colorado hit some late shots to cover.

I did not.. It was very square, but I just thought ASU was bad enough for it not to matter.. Oh well haha a WIN is a WIN

Looks like we got OT.. Which I am not happy about.. I do not fair well in OT for some reason.. CMONNN!

[QuantumLeap]

WTF??? No OT!!

Just to recap how fukked up that ending of regulation was, Nevada goes up by 2 with a FT and misses the 2nd FT so they're up by 2 with about 4 seconds left. CSU takes the ball down to attempt a desperation shot and the Nevada guy fouls the CSU guy with 0.4 seconds to go!!

[iloseagain]

Just to recap how fukked up that ending of regulation was, Nevada goes up by 2 with a FT and misses the 2nd FT so they're up by 2 with about 4 seconds left. CSU takes the ball down to attempt a desperation shot and the Nevada guy fouls the CSU guy with 0.4 seconds to go!!

god thats awful..

EDIT: lol down 7 in OT now.. havent been down more than like 4 all game.. unreal.. another OT screwjob

[QuantumLeap]

Here's how the 2nd half ended:

2H - 00:00 Missed 3PTR by DREW, Lindsey. Rebound TEAM

2H - 00:01 Sub in FOSTER, Elijah. Sub out COOPER

2H 69-69 00:01 Freethrow by DE CIMAN, Joe

2H 68-69 00:01 Freethrow by DE CIMAN, Joe

2H - 00:01 Foul by COOPER, Eric Jr.


2H - 00:04 Sub in COOPER, Eric Jr.. Sub out FOSTER


2H - 00:04 Missed Freethrow by CRISWELL, Tyron. Rebound GILLON

2H 67-69 00:04 Freethrow by CRISWELL, Tyron

[Calgunner23]

I've been so busy today I could only place one bet. Colorado/ Wiscy ML parlay.

Ive been playing a lot of ML lately.

[iloseagain]

yea and then they give up 18 in OT... How do you give up 18 in OT?

[QuantumLeap]

Did you see the line movement in Belmont game? Something fishy? They were -1.5 to +1 now..

Maybe you were on to something there. Tennessee St goes from +1 1/2 to -1 and wins convincingly.

[QuantumLeap]

yea and then they give up 18 in OT... How do you give up 18 in OT?

They had to foul a lot at the end.

But their 3 best free throw shooters missed 6 free throws in OT.

[iloseagain]

Maybe you were on to something there. Tennessee St goes from +1 1/2 to -1 and wins convincingly.

I took Tenn St because the Duke line moved the EXACT same way and Pitt won by a mile.. Duke was -1.5 on the road, and then right before the game it went to Pit -1. Same thing in this Tenn St game.. Late line movement can be very telling

[posey_mvp]

Man we got robbed in that CSU game.. Oh well..

[Calgunner23]

I've been so busy today I could only place one bet. Colorado/ Wiscy ML parlay.

Ive been playing a lot of ML lately.

Cash it! Man, sometimes I feel like there are way too many games on a Saturday. I just put most of my chips on one bet, otherwise I can never decide.

Best of luck to all! I'm still salty about Kentucky yesterday

[QuantumLeap]

As you can see I could have easily gone 7-4 this week. Oh well. It's like I said above, it's not important to inflate my ego by having a great record. What's more important is that we're all seeing some good opportunities here. The fun part of it for me is when I pick some of these underdogs and having them win outright. I hope everyone else is having some fun!

I also appreciate all the feedback.

2-22
No play.

2-23
W - Miami (OH)
W - Missouri
L - BC

2-24
W - Colorado
L - Southern Illinois
L - Wyoming

2-25
W - Stanford

2-26
No play.

2-27
L - Georgetown (OT)
W - Rhode Island
L - UCLA

2-29
L - Colorado St (fouled with 0.4 seconds on the clock)

This week:
5-6

Last week:
8-2

Two week total:
13-8

[QuantumLeap]

Cash it! Man, sometimes I feel like there are way too many games on a Saturday. I just put most of my chips on one bet, otherwise I can never decide.

Best of luck to all! I'm still salty about Kentucky yesterday

Do you remember the odds you got for that parlay?

[Calgunner23]

The other way around brotha, you've been the 2nd leg of my last few parlays to win. I'll do a better job at posting my plays with more time, win or lose.

I got the 2 team ML parlay at $100 to win $83. Wiscy -235 and Colorado -350 brotha. I then took Michigan +4.5 2nd half for $50 and blew that! Dumb move by me.

I was was just commenting that these Saturday cards are HUGE! I'm in California, so by 9am there are already games going. So I typically play the 1pm games onwards, sadly.

Keep them coming QL! I wish you had a text service lol