Too Good To Be True (TGTBT) Thursday night

[QuantumLeap]

Just wanted to start the thread to put up a game I wanted to watch but won't be playing. Yesterday I took Southern Illinois as the team that had an opponent's line that was TGTBT, even though SIU had a really good record. The reason I thought their opponent was TGTBT was because SIU's recent performance sucked. SIU lost miserably.

We have a similar team with Providence today. They have a 19-8 record but have only won 2 out of their last 7 and are on the road at Seton Hall who has a 19-7 record and has won 6 out of their last 7. The line is -4 for Seton Hall which seems to be TGTBT given the recent performances by these 2 teams.

I won't be playing this game. Just putting it up here to show how similar it was to last night's SIU game to see if these types of picks should be eliminated.

Picks will come later.

[QuantumLeap]

I am NOT picking these teams just yet. Just putting these out there as teams I'm looking at. Looking at DePaul, ASU, UCLA, Stanford.

I love the Pac 12 for this system as you can see.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

checking in

liking ucla at first glance

[sleeper]

Nice hit on Colorado last night!

[QuantumLeap]

checking in

liking ucla at first glance

Roger that Ghost Rider, the pattern is open! Check your 6 for Migs.

[QuantumLeap]

Nice hit on Colorado last night!

Thanks! That was a lot of fun. Hopefully we can filter out the losers and get mostly winners like that.

[Birdman557]

I'll help you out:

Nebraska 4-7 on the road, Penn 9-3 at home. Nebraska lost last 2, Penn won last 2. Line is even, enjoy!

[QuantumLeap]

I'll help you out:

Nebraska 4-7 on the road, Penn 9-3 at home. Nebraska lost last 2, Penn won last 2. Line is even, enjoy!

Yeah, I saw that but their road record concerned me. Also, I was concerned about Penn State's record prior to their last 2 wins but you could be right.

[Birdman557]

Yeah, I saw that but their road record concerned me. Also, I was concerned about Penn State's record prior to their last 2 wins but you could be right.

I'm playing, let's ship!

[QuantumLeap]

I'm playing, let's ship!

Good luck! I'll be rooting for you.

[Birdman557]

Good luck! I'll be rooting for you.

Thanks and keep up the good work

[QuantumLeap]

I was also looking at San Diego +14 1/2 but it's hard to look at a line that large and say it's TGTBT. Still, I DID take St. John's at +11 against Seton Hall last Sunday. Hmmmm...

[QuantumLeap]

I am NOT picking these teams just yet. Just putting these out there as teams I'm looking at. Looking at DePaul, ASU, UCLA, Stanford.

I love the Pac 12 for this system as you can see.

I wanted to explain why I put DePaul in here. I've never taken a favorite as a TGTBT pick. I won't be taking them but the reason I mentioned them is because St. John's played Seton Hall in a public game Sunday morning in the Garden and should have won but got ripped off by the officials.

People see how well St. John's did against a good Seton Hall team and wonder why they are underdogs of 5 points. The main reason I'm not taking them is because one of my filters (thanks to Boston College) is to not count on a bad team to cover. DePaul is 8-18 and may give up if they get behind, especially this late in the season.

[Birdman557]

Depaul: I'd stay away, garbage game of the year hands down.

[Birdman557]

Braska down 15+ all fukking game, at 2 points with 1 min to go, GOGOGO!!!

[Birdman557]

Braska +1.5 WINNAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!

[QuantumLeap]

Braska +1.5 WINNAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!

Wow!!!!

[iloseagain]

Braska down 15+ all fukking game, at 2 points with 1 min to go, GOGOGO!!!

wow penn st wins by 1

edit: oh shit nvm thought u had PK haha

[QuantumLeap]

Stanford +1 over USC

Stanford 13-12 are 2-5 in their last 7.
USC are 19-8.

This looks TGTBT. Take the Trees.

[iloseagain]

depaul up 17 at half

[QuantumLeap]

I was also looking at San Diego +14 1/2 but it's hard to look at a line that large and say it's TGTBT. Still, I DID take St. John's at +11 against Seton Hall last Sunday. Hmmmm...

Looks like they aren't folding (down by 8 at the half) so I put some House Money from the IPFW win on USD +6 for the 2nd half. I think they can give it a go and maybe pull within a few points even if Gonzaga pulls away at the end. This will NOT count as a TGTBT pick.

[Miavia]

Stanford +1 over USC

Stanford 13-12 are 2-5 in their last 7.
USC are 19-8.

This looks TGTBT. Take the Trees.

Damn I wished I had jumped on this...

[iloseagain]

great call on stanford. zaga pulled away big time

[posey_mvp]

I noticed your pretty good at seeing these angles for these type of games.. Whatever it is, keep up the great work. :-)

[QuantumLeap]

Depaul: I'd stay away, garbage game of the year hands down.

DePaul covers by 3 but I took your advice here. They lead large at half and almost pissed away this game. I'm glad I stayed away.

Thanks for the input.

[QuantumLeap]

great call on stanford. zaga pulled away big time

Thanks. Sometimes it's not just knowing when to bet but when to stay away. Did you see that Providence got beat badly in a rerun of the SIU game? Thanks for the input. It helped keep me away from taking Providence.

[QuantumLeap]

I noticed your pretty good at seeing these angles for these type of games.. Whatever it is, keep up the great work. :-)

Thanks posey. I'm going to be going to a stock investment seminar. They don't teach you how to pick stocks. They teach you how to see which stocks the major investors are taking so you can invest in them as well. They tell you that the major investors seldom make losing investments.

I liken what I'm doing here to that. I don't see which teams have an advantage. I learn to see what the linesmakers put out as traps to get people to bet big on lines that don't win and then I bet the opposite.

[QuantumLeap]

Stanford +1 over USC

Stanford 13-12 are 2-5 in their last 7.
USC are 19-8.

This looks TGTBT. Take the Trees.

This game was never in doubt.

Today: 1-0

This week: 4-3

[Birdman557]

Poster of the week hands down

[QuantumLeap]

Poster of the week hands down

Thanks. I think I'm going to start calling you "Omaha" from now on. Lol.

[Birdman557]

Thanks. I think I'm going to start calling you "Omaha" from now on. Lol.