Too good to be true (TGTBT) Tuesday

[QuantumLeap]

Baylor -3 1/2 over Iowa State
I like to pattern some of these based upon the most recent games played by each team. Iowa State won a big game over Texas while Baylor got blown out against TT so why is Baylor favored? Take a look at the home/away records IMO.

Line is going away from Baylor as well as the ML. Get it while you can.

[RavensFan2k3]

Baylor is favored because they're at home playing against an evenly matched team they beat before...you think Iowa State should be favored here? I don't think Baylor should be -3, probably will take Iowa St

[QuantumLeap]

Baylor is favored because they're at home playing against an evenly matched team they beat before...you think Iowa State should be favored here? I don't think Baylor should be -3, probably will take Iowa St

Glad you asked. I agree with you about Baylor and think they should be favored. My angle is that people remember recent games so many will be taking Iowa State as a result so the linesmakers can adjust the line to get more on Iowa State.
Then the line gets adjusted even more so even more will be on Iowa State.
Just a theory of mine.

[terpkeg]

Glad you asked. I agree with you about Baylor and think they should be favored. My angle is that people remember recent games so many will be taking Iowa State as a result so the linesmakers can adjust the line to get more on Iowa State.
Then the line gets adjusted even more so even more will be on Iowa State.
Just a theory of mine.

Good in theory, but is there any evidence here that line is over adjusted? What was line first time they played? What is average home line in big 12 play? Same for ISU road closing numbers?

[RavensFan2k3]

Glad you asked. I agree with you about Baylor and think they should be favored. My angle is that people remember recent games so many will be taking Iowa State as a result so the linesmakers can adjust the line to get more on Iowa State.
Then the line gets adjusted even more so even more will be on Iowa State.
Just a theory of mine.

Very good theory. Best of luck to you my friend

[QuantumLeap]

Good in theory, but is there any evidence here that line is over adjusted? What was line first time they played? What is average home line in big 12 play? Same for ISU road closing numbers?

All good questions but I'm afraid they don't enter into my strategy other than the first one. I am basing the answer to that question on the performance of the respective teams' most recent game and the fact that a team that played well in their last game is a dog to a team that was blown out in their last game.

It's my opinion that gamblers have short memories and can't remember much past the last game.

[QuantumLeap]

Very good theory. Best of luck to you my friend

Thanks. It seemed to work for UCLA and USC. We'll see if it works here.

[QuantumLeap]

Well it took OT for this pick to win so I can't claim it was a definitive victory but I'll take it.

The line went to -4 but went back to -2 before game time. I think I'll make my picks closer to tipoff.