Ball state v Miami ohio??

[banderso9]

This line seems fishy to me Ball St.(16-9) 1pt road favorite against much weaker Miami Ohio team...think it should be more like ball st. -7. Any insight would be helpful.

[posey_mvp]

it does seem a little fishy to me.. similar to Wofford line yesterday...

[Snake24]

I know Miami Ohio just got destroyed by 44 against Toledo. Let me confirm something else I read.

[PorkChop]

It is a short spread.

Miami OH is the worst team in MAC, and Ball State right now is in first place in their conference division.

1	Akron (12)	12	1
2	Ball State	47	4
3	Toledo	52	7
4	Buffalo	54	2
5	Ohio	67	8
6	Kent State	71	5
7	Central Michigan	73	3
8	Northern Illinois	74	6
9	Eastern Michigan	97	10
10	Bowling Green	120	9
11	Western Michigan	125	11
12	Miami	144	12

Ball State 'should' win this game by 9+ points.

All that being, spreads already dropping, will be pick'em by gametime which I simply cannot explain.
(Miami OH won their last two home games against Bowling Green & Northern Illinois).

[banderso9]

Yes Toledo crushed the , and ball st. Shares Mac conference best road record at 4-2 other team with best road record Toledo. Ball st. Hasn't won 5 Mac road games since 00-01 season a win tonight would put them at 5-2 on the road.

[PorkChop]

Miami has the 317th ranked offensive efficiency in the nation. Ball State shoots the three at 38 percent,

Game will be dictated by this.

[banderso9]

Public is on ball st. -2 At 80%. I usually don't factor public opinion into my decision making but with the line dropping from-2.5 to -1.5 at most major books. I can't feel confident in taking ball st. even though I know they should win this game by a couple of baskets if not more. And I thought this was imo the easiest matchup to pick now I'm steering clear maybe I'll put $50 if line moves to a pk.

[st5213]

Call me crazy, but I'm on Miami. Lost by 2 on the road @ Ball State. In state rivalry, 80% on Ball State. Small play on Miami , nothing crazy.

[posey_mvp]

I would probably bet on Miami as well.. They are 7-3 (8-2 ATS) against Ball state in their last 10 games.

[jandek]

For me it's Miami or no play.

[RavensFan2k3]

Are people betting Miami because the public is on Ball State? Thats it?

[banderso9]

It's true Miami oh like to play ball st. Hard. The last meeting ball st. Had to overcome a 16pt deficit at half to win 48-46 at home. Ball state is a great road team and there last three road games are @Miami oh(last place in Mac east) @toledo (tied for 1st in west division w/ ball st.) and @NIU(3rd place in west division) that being said I think the easiest chance for a road win is Miami oh. The line movement is strange and suggest sharp money on Miami i just can't see a ball st. Team with a lot on the line to lay down for this potential divisional road win.

[infinite wisdom]

definitely a trap line. over the long term a positive expectation to avoid the obvious pick and go with the unlikely choice (MIAO in this case). situationally, this game is further exacerbated by the big cover vs non cover disparity of their previous games with MIAO losing by 33 ATS and BALLST covering by 21 ATS. additionally, we have the "illogical" line move toward the contrarian choice. a couple recent games that fit similar criterion, which both happened to win were:

PEP (15-10) away fav -3 bet down to -2.5 off an 18 point cover O/R win over STMRYS at
PAC ( 7-16) off losing by 10 ATS vs LMU
WL records 7 games diff close -2.5.

ARKLR (21-2) away fav -3.5 bet down to -2 off a 31 point win over SOAL at
MONR (8-11) off a non cover vs APPL
WL records 11 games diff close -2.

these games in addition to todays BALLST @ MIAO really stick out.

games like this don't come up that often as the pointspread on the majority of games fall more in line with what one would expect, but when when the line is "off" take the "off" team.
virtually all plays will be DOGS, with a few small favs.
even when there is an inkling the line is a bit "off", consider the off team.
line move toward the off team is a real tell, and a non cover by the contrarian side vs cover for the obvious choice is a contributing factor. recent examples:

WOF 14-13
NCG 9-17 pk

SLO 8-15 pk up to -1.5
UCR 13-13

MONM 20-10 -5 down to -4.5
RDR 10-15

that is all

[posey_mvp]

no its because Miami OH has a good history against Ball state.. and Miami almost beat Ball state last time they played 48-46.. Miami was actually ahead most of the game..

[RavensFan2k3]

no its because Miami OH has a good history against Ball state.. and Miami almost beat Ball state last time they played 48-46.. Miami was actually ahead most of the game..

Ahh thats a good point

[PorkChop]

Ahh thats a good point

They shot 46 from field. That won't happen this time around. Sharps are wrong by looking at this score and expecting same result.

[RavensFan2k3]

They shot 46 from field. That won't happen this time around. Sharps are wrong by looking at this score and expecting same result.

I do hear you, I'm just saying atleast people who like Miami Ohio have their reasons.

[SBRMAN23]

no its because Miami OH has a good history against Ball state.. and Miami almost beat Ball state last time they played 48-46.. Miami was actually ahead most of the game..

yes i bet on that game and watched it fuckn one of the worst games i ever seen

[banderso9]

miami keeping it clos at halftime. This ones gonna come down to the wire. I hope I'm on the right side of this one....#ballout