Two bounce-back teams for VD (Sunday)

[QuantumLeap]

I like to look at teams who have done well in their last game who are playing a team that just got beat. The line looks too good to be true (TGTBT) for the home team.

UCLA +120 at ASU
Previous: ASU just beat ranked USC. UCLA lost to Arizona.
UCLA kept up with Arizona in a road loss their last game.
The line went from +3 to +2 1/2 and the ML is going from +136 to +120. Seems TGTBT.

USC +9 1/2 over Arizona
Previous: Arizona didn't look all that strong beating UCLA at home. SC lost to ASU on the road their last game.
I'm thinking this ranked USC team can play it close and cover this line.

[QuantumLeap]

Adding another one:

Pitt +10 1/2 over UNC
17-6 Pitt lost 3 of their last 4. They don't want their season to slip away from them.
UNC barely beat BC. I say UNC wins but will coast toward the end.

[QuantumLeap]

I don't know if I believe in line movement and traps, etc. but this UCLA game has all the settings for such a case. ASU ML has gone from -153 to -131 now at Pinnacle. The line has gone from -3 to -1 1/2 at some offshore books. They are just begging you to take the Sun Devils at home after a 74-67 victory against ranked USC.

What do the linemakers see in UCLA?

[tony_come]

ASU

[QuantumLeap]

Looks like I went to the well 1 too many times as Pitt was never in their game. I'm going to do some analysis as to why.

Both USC and UCLA are winners for me, UCLA on the ML. Funny how these games look compared to the previous games. The linesmakers must look at the situation each team is in along with the talent to cover.

I was pretty successful with this in the NFL playoffs taking Denver who squeaked out a playoff win in their conference title while Carolina had decisive wins in their previous games. I don't know what the linesmakers are seeing but I don't care. I'm just going to try to figure out the pattern.