San Diego St./ St. Mary's

mixpicks · 03-25-09, 02:24 PM

1st Everyone Is On St Mary's for one. 73% Line Open @ SD st.2.5 Now 3.5 whole pt up, with less public on them that should tell you where the Biger Smart $$$ Is. That's where I'll be...
BOL... ND seems okay, thro..

mixpicks · 03-25-09, 02:27 PM

77% on ND but atleast that ine is moving in the correct directly. However, IF I was to play them (ND) I'd try to get them at -1.2 to Win or 2 to push. Or maybe even consider them S/U on the Money Line, look at the Values 1st. I think if they win they do it by 1,2 maybe maybe 3, so again all about the ###########'s####
BOL

brooks85 · 03-25-09, 02:52 PM

you'd be better of betting who scores first than betting on the UK/ND game.

patsfan2727 · 03-25-09, 03:20 PM

haha the RLM argument again. thats been getting smashed so far in the REAL tourney, just like that syracuse line that was a "trap" right?

ugh if i hear the phrase "smart money" one more time I'm gonna puke.

if the "smart money" was the correct play everytime we'd all be millionaires.

winning picks come when preparation meets opportunity.

plus, what is the fun in blindly following "smart money" just to try to get an edge?

bottom line is YOU DO NOT KNOW WHAT THE BOOKS ARE THINKING.
maybe they moved the line because they want to generate action on St. Mary's.
maybe they moved the line because they know about an injury that you don't.

Think about it from the sportsbooks' standpoint. WHY would they want to run the risk of generating uneven action on St. Mary's??? then they are gambling just like all of us.

If i was a sportsbook I would want 50/50 action on EVERY game that way I am GUARANTEED a 10% profit.

I still have yet to get a response to this argument against RLM. anyone?

BobHarvey · 03-25-09, 05:44 PM

How about this argument. It's purely a conference thing but how many good teams did St. Mary's have to play in the WCC? (Gonzaga). San Diego State played a pretty tough MWC schedule including BYU, Utah, New Mexico etc. Plus they're at home. I'll lay the points and take the Aztecs.

The General · 03-25-09, 11:56 PM

Mostly 3½'s on the board and lands on 4.

scwical · 03-26-09, 06:29 AM

oh Patty Mills. I thought I looked good when he was stepping to the line with a one and one down 3 with 15sec. to go. I was wrong. St. Mary's should not have been that close but it hurts worse when they get that close and can't cover buy a 1/2 point.