New guy but is Nova not a lock?

diogee · 03-24-09, 02:22 AM

Welcome to the forum. No such thing as a lock...anything can happen any given day in sports. That is why money management is a key to success. Haven't looked at the Mich St match-up but do like Nova against Duke. Really think the wrong team is favored due to Duke's popularity. Not sure where you are seeing over 110 but if you do have that then it will be canceled for sure due to being a bad line...the actual O/U is 148. Best of luck.

milkshakeballa · 03-24-09, 02:28 AM

Originally posted by diogee

Welcome to the forum. No such thing as a lock...anything can happen any given day in sports. That is why money management is a key to success. Haven't looked at the Mich St match-up but do like Nova against Duke. Really think the wrong team is favored due to Duke's popularity. Not sure where you are seeing over 110 but if you do have that then it will be canceled for sure due to being a bad line...the actual O/U is 148. Best of luck.

Whoops on the O/U. I understand about the no lock...I agree. Seems like a good bet with a good EV. Nova really likes to spread the court and I don't see anybody on Duke able to hang with Cunningham.

diogee · 03-24-09, 02:39 AM

Originally posted by milkshakeballa

Whoops on the O/U. I understand about the no lock...I agree. Seems like a good bet with a good EV. Nova really likes to spread the court and I don't see anybody on Duke able to hang with Cunningham.

Agree with ya there...Duke is naturally overpriced. I take it that you aren't a beginner since you are talking EV. Good stuff.

milkshakeballa · 03-24-09, 02:47 AM

Originally posted by diogee

Agree with ya there...Duke is naturally overpriced. I take it that you aren't a beginner since you are talking EV. Good stuff.

LOL I talk it (know it from my Poker days) but I don't quite incorporate it into my thinking.

I'm guessing Nova beats Duke 7.5 ish / 10 times so over that long haul you are getting a nice +EV.

Just did some nice research on banroll management. I'm going to track my picks for about 2-3 months to see how I do and if I'm doing ok I'm going to give it a shot.

diogee · 03-24-09, 03:08 AM

Good stuff milkshake...money management and not chasing (basically not going on tilt) when you lose are 2 very important keys to surviving long-term. We all have great winning streaks and also losing streaks that will make you want to bury your head in the sand. Always on to tomorrow. Best of luck in this venture.

kdawgy · 03-24-09, 03:09 AM

I like Nova, but Duke will play them tough. Should be a fast paced game, so you can't discount either team getting hot.

Also, don't discount Missouri. They are a really tough team, and Memphis has blown some leads this year and had some really shaky play at times. I like Missouri as a dog here, but I think the line is pretty close.

No real locks in the tourney this year IMO...

slacker00 · 03-24-09, 06:43 AM

Originally posted by kdawgy

I like Nova, but Duke will play them tough. Should be a fast paced game, so you can't discount either team getting hot.

Also, don't discount Missouri. They are a really tough team, and Memphis has blown some leads this year and had some really shaky play at times. I like Missouri as a dog here, but I think the line is pretty close.

No real locks in the tourney this year IMO...

I agree with all of this.

We're getting to the point in the tournament where the dogs start looking really good. There are no bad teams left. Any given team can win on any given night. Plus, some of the classic favorites like UNC & Duke with be overvalued.