Q's Tracking Thread

BiffTFinancial · 03-20-09, 09:38 AM

well, i don't know about placing too much stock in what i say. i was 2-4 yesterday, so it's not like i'm setting the world on fire. one thing that i will say: i love the over in the SFA/Cuse game, and that's my favorite pick of day so far. any particular reason why you like the other side?

qman615 · 03-20-09, 09:47 AM

Not for any other reason than the line makes no sense. This o/u should be capped somewhere around 138-139 and that would be if Vegas thought this was going to be more of a defensive game. When I see lines like these, I usually take them as gift from Vegas...If you look at the average offensive points for both teams over the last 5 games, it is somewhere around 153.5 , when you look at what they have given up defensively over the last 5, it is somewhere around 138...and they open the line at 131.5??? Vegas makes mistakes capping games sometimes, but not by this type of margin, they know something I don't. That is the only reason.

BiffTFinancial · 03-20-09, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by qman615

Not for any other reason than the line makes no sense. This o/u should be capped somewhere around 138-139 and that would be if Vegas thought this was going to be more of a defensive game. When I see lines like these, I usually take them as gift from Vegas...If you look at the average offensive points for both teams over the last 5 games, it is somewhere around 153.5 , when you look at what they have given up defensively over the last 5, it is somewhere around 138...and they open the line at 131.5??? Vegas makes mistakes capping games sometimes, but not by this type of margin, they know something I don't. That is the only reason.

qman, thanks. that's some shrewd analysis. if nothing else, will consider not making that my big play of the day, which it was looking like before. i cap it at Cuse, 78-72, so way over. maybe Vegas sees a blow-out coming? plenty of options later today, this one just jumped out at me, so will be sure not to go crazy.

qman615 · 03-20-09, 09:58 AM

Just sharing my thoughts.....not sure they are right, but I hope it helps if this one does go under....

BiffTFinancial · 03-20-09, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by qman615

Just sharing my thoughts.....not sure they are right, but I hope it helps if this one does go under....

much appreciated. BOL to you today.

qman615 · 03-20-09, 10:11 AM

You also Biff - My big play of the day today is Marquette - You are getting good value for them at that number.

BiffTFinancial · 03-20-09, 10:15 AM

agreed. btw, i am on Marquette -4.5 and NDSU/KU over as well. trying to decide about NDSU 1H +5.5 right now, which i also like pretty well.

qman615 · 03-20-09, 10:43 AM

With the lack of experience this KU team has, I would lean towards that as well. My belief is that teams like KU with little to no tournament experience have challenges covering large numbers...I like them at +5.5 for the 1H. Look for NDKU to keep this one close and put points up on an inexperienced KU team. I will jump on the first half with you....

qman615 · 03-20-09, 10:49 AM

Adding:

NDSU / KU - 1st half - NDSU +5.5

BiffTFinancial · 03-20-09, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by qman615

With the lack of experience this KU team has, I would lean towards that as well. My belief is that teams like KU with little to no tournament experience have challenges covering large numbers...I like them at +5.5 for the 1H. Look for NDKU to keep this one close and put points up on an inexperienced KU team. I will jump on the first half with you....

nice. with you on NDSU/KU over and Marquette as well as that. BOL today [except for this that SFA/Cuse under....haha].

qman615 · 03-20-09, 11:08 AM

LOL...Time will tell my friend....lets hops neither of us gets hurt on it either way.

qman615 · 03-21-09, 08:59 AM

4-3 yesterday going 1-2 with the 5* picks...

Total Record - 99-96-1
5* record - 51 - 48

Todays Picks:

NCAA:

VT / Baylor - VT -4

Purdue / Wash - Purdue +1 (5*)

Maryland / Memphis - over 130.5 (5*)

LSU / UNC - Over 158.5

UCLA / Nova - Nova -2.5

BOL Everyone.......

qman615 · 03-21-09, 09:17 AM

Adding my first money line parlay....

Date Time / ReferenceDescriptionSelection #1
3/21/2009 5:45 PM - (EST)Basketball NCAA
Wager Type:Parlay
North Carolina
Money Line -800 for Game
Selection #2
3/21/2009 3:35 PM - (EST)Basketball NCAA
Wager Type:Parlay
Connecticut
Money Line -700 for Game
Selection #3
3/21/2009 3:20 PM - (EST)Basketball NCAA
Wager Type:Parlay
Memphis U
Money Line -450 for Game
Selection #4
3/21/2009 5:50 PM - (EST)Basketball NCAA
Wager Type:Parlay
Oklahoma
Money Line -290 for Game
Risking $300.00 To Win $333.99 USD

qman615 · 03-22-09, 01:02 PM

4-2 yesterday with my moneyline parlay....2-0 on 5* picks....

Here we go today:

Louisville over 143.5 (5*)

USC +4

Wisconsin +3 (5*)

Mizzou - 3

BOL Everyone....