more games+ situational handicapping

[hajune]

I told you that it is not a good thing overall to play teams that are -6 on the road and -9 at home during the stretch run. There are exceptions but it is best to stay away. I posted Texas AM as a play today. It is not one they are -10.
During this time of the year "need" games become a reality and some teams play way over their head ,being highly motivated in order to qualify for tournament play including the NIT. I pass many teams I want to play because I am concerned that the motivation is not there. An earlier game Villanova -Georgetown might have been one of those I could have passed. GT is 14-12 and NEEDS a win to even go to the NIT. Villanova will be a 3-5 seed in all likelyhood in the NCAA win or lose. The motivation might be in Georgetowns favor. I probably should have downgraded the game but I thought there was not enough extra motivation on GT's part to do so. I was wrong. I try to study this in the VERY VERY tricky last 10 days of the season.
Another game I had today I rated St Johns as the best play of the year. Everything was a plus for them. One of the members who won the contest I had was in contact with me and I told him about the strength of the game. He put everything on it. Strangely I did not object but would if he does it again. I think he will post that info on this sight. I appreciate him helping me while I was incapacitated.
Games in second session

Wyom also several streams of smart money on them
Port 12
Old Dom 15
Aub 5
LB St 10
Drex 12
Wis GB 12
C Fla 15
Drake 9
LA Mon 5
SD St 10
Col St 12
Ida 10Tenn St 12
Ariz St, C Riv, E Ky all 5
too many games again but they keep winning
cheers

[gameday10]

You are ridiculous. Everytime something wins you come back in another thread saying that was a 20 unit play or that was the biggest play of the year. Yet, when you post plays you never mention a 20 unit play or a 'special play' nor the 'biggest game of the year' play.

[Formulawiz]

I am a true believer that numbers (stats) talk and everything else (situational handicapping) walks. How often have we heard a team must win for whatever reason. This is all external noise and pure bullshit. A team does not have to do anything and to be honest with you, the public continually falls for this crap time and time again. I love these guys who write all these long drawn out situational game analysis. Are they trying to convince themselves? Picking winners is what separates the men from the boys and as I have stated many times, the line incorporates every situation we can possibly think of.
Now I am not taking away anything from meaningful trend analysis. I believe this has much more merit then situational analysis and can be used in conjunction with good power ratings.

[Bookman]

I'd have to agree with the Wiz. The oddsmakers are aware of all the variables and have weighed them in to the offered line. The objective is always the same no matter the situation: play it if you like it, otherwise employ the only advantage you have on the house and pass.