Wednesday - Pair of 5's Sir

Boy Jeenyus · 02-25-09, 01:05 PM

+850? Now that's a fat doggy you're taking aim at. I'm with you on Rutg+14. Good luck.

Pair of 5s Sir · 02-25-09, 01:49 PM

I don't expect Notre Dame to keep their eye on the ball. It will be interesting if they win SU because then I have a +1600$ parlay alive. I guess I will have to put on the hedge on the other side for about half. Or how about no hedge? Perhaps you guys could take a vote to hedge or not tonigt, if it goes that way.

MrMonkey · 02-25-09, 01:57 PM

Don't have enough experience about hedging, and I always look at what your playing, but IMO do everything possible to get the money back on Rutgers ML. Only seen RU against SHall and they were BAD, really BAD!

RU did beat Pitt and Nova last year SU as double digit dogs though! I be rooting for you since I'm not a ND fan. Good luck!

MrMonkey

Pair of 5s Sir · 02-25-09, 01:59 PM

I am just about closing out CBB for this year in preparation for baseball. Do you play bases?

MrMonkey · 02-25-09, 02:07 PM

Originally posted by Pair of 5s Sir

I am just about closing out CBB for this year in preparation for baseball. Do you play bases?

Just started betting altogether in 10/2008. But I will be, just need to follow some guys who know what they are doing?

Never understood the baseball betting strategy say, bet o/u runs or winning teams (dog/fav)? Only play sides in CBB which way for a novice as myself would be the way to go in bases? Or is there another option?

Pair of 5s Sir, I will be following you closely if baseball is your thing?
Thanks!

MrMonkey

Pair of 5s Sir · 02-25-09, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by MrMonkey

Just started betting altogether in 10/2008. But I will be, just need to follow some guys who know what they are doing?

Never understood the baseball betting strategy say, bet o/u runs or winning teams (dog/fav)? Only play sides in CBB which way for a novice as myself would be the way to go in bases? Or is there another option?

Pair of 5s Sir, I will be following you closely if baseball is your thing?
Thanks!

MrMonkey

I prefer baseball. When selecting teams through my contrarian approach, if often leads to two dog plays which require me to select one winner, resulting in a profit. In baskets, I almost always laying -110 and selecting one out of two is a loser. I won't start selecting bases consistently until around May. The first month can be tough but there could be some spot plays early.

qman615 · 02-25-09, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by Pair of 5s Sir

I don't expect Notre Dame to keep their eye on the ball. It will be interesting if they win SU because then I have a +1600$ parlay alive. I guess I will have to put on the hedge on the other side for about half. Or how about no hedge? Perhaps you guys could take a vote to hedge or not tonigt, if it goes that way.

I dont think you will have to worry about that decision. I cant say GL on this one because I am taking the other side...If I am wrong, which I highly doubt....hegde..it is the smart thing to do. Greed will get you broke.

Pair of 5s Sir · 02-25-09, 02:51 PM

Right on. I will hedge, I like my parlay with the points. I really like Colorado big time at home in the altitude. If the parlay busts out on the first game, Colorado will be my load up play.

Pair of 5s Sir · 02-25-09, 04:53 PM

test

Pair of 5s Sir · 02-25-09, 04:57 PM

I like the way Rutgers and the points are setting up. Contrarian indicators are strong and ND is not that good.

Pair of 5s Sir · 02-25-09, 06:26 PM

Selection

Rutgers 1H +8

Pair of 5s Sir · 02-25-09, 07:07 PM

Stop the Rutgers game now, I COVER

Pair of 5s Sir · 02-25-09, 07:17 PM

Rutgers MoFo

Pair of 5s Sir · 02-25-09, 07:50 PM

It's Official

Rutger 1H +8 (W)

The State University of New Jersey storms into South Bend and takes down the Catholics for the first half.

Pair of 5s Sir · 02-25-09, 09:02 PM

It's Official

Rutgers hangs on to cover for the Contrarios with a live parlay going into the Colorado game. I hope Mr. Monkey is buying some bananas.

r2d2 · 02-25-09, 09:24 PM

Originally posted by Pair of 5s Sir

Rutgers hangs on to cover for the Contrarios with a live parlay going into the Colorado game. I hope Mr. Monkey is buying some bananas.

great call on rutgers Sir! nice hit. i was pullling for you on the money line. too bad they couldn't finish em off! i am a cu buff alum, so i am with you there to! cheers to hopefully a solid night

Pair of 5s Sir · 02-25-09, 09:30 PM

Originally posted by r2d2

great call on rutgers Sir! nice hit. i was pullling for you on the money line. too bad they couldn't finish em off! i am a cu buff alum, so i am with you there to! cheers to hopefully a solid night

Thanks, home team advantage and altitude is my angle along with contrarian indicators.

Pair of 5s Sir · 02-25-09, 10:26 PM

Selection

Going into the Okie State/Colorado game, the Contrarians have a live parlay with Rutgers taking down the early going. The pending wager to win the parlay is Colorado SU. Additionally, we place a ATS wager on Colorado as a sweetener.

Home team and altitude are the keys. Last time Colorado played, Missouri got out to an ungodly lead right out of the gate.

Colorado +5.5

Boy Jeenyus · 02-26-09, 12:50 PM

Man, I was thinking of you when that Rut/ND got close at the end last night. I was rooting for you to win that m/l bet. Sounds like you made out ok. I wish they were all as easy as that Rutgers side bet with the dd spread.

I'm in my 13th year capping games. This will only be my fourth year capping baseball games. I'm like you and like to wait a while into the season before I start. I usually take a couple of weeks off after the NCAA championship and start looking at the bases after everyone has gone through their rotation a couple of times.

I'm still learning my way around on bases. Three years ago I started off horribly and gave my capping process a complete overhaul. I had some success later in the season so I used the same process two years ago and had a good season. I started out poorly last season and had to quit because I had some problems with my employment. It just wasn't a good time for me to be betting on baseball games. Anyway, things are better now and I'm looking to get back at it come late April.

I do avoid laying odds on favorites heavier than -140. I don't often bet the run lines either. I won't be afraid to bet heavy dogs if my process points to a pitcher that looks like he might be ready to go out for an effective start. My analysis doesn't isolate a heavy dog very often, but when it does I usually have a pretty good hit rate. I usually avoid betting teams that I judge as having a significantly inferior bullpen, which eliminates a lot of heavy dog bets. I just hate capping a game right and have a team get a lead only to lose it late because the pen can't close it out.

Crayzee · 02-26-09, 01:11 PM

i think if you abandoned your contrarian theories
and just capped the games like everyone else you might win a little in ncaab and also nba
some of my favorite plays are
always take small dogs +1 or +2-1/2 points-
i take most all small dogs EXCEPT-
VERY IMPORTANT- an exact +3 for some reason always seems to favor the favorite
this is all based on getting the bet in as close to start time as possible
a +1 at 2pm afternoon can easily become a -1 by 700 pm game time and usually the +1 will be the winner
always take all the +1 plays for first halfs in college and first quarter in nba
a very rare +1 EVEN is an absolute goldmine!!
always bet over the biggest totals of 150 and up in college,
200 and up in nba
be very careful wth second half plays in baskets
favorite is over second half totals-
in nba if the first half score is on track to go over and the posted second half total combined with the first half score exceeds the original posted game total- good chance your second half total is going over
in college any second half total that is posted 80 + = good chance of going over

best second half side bet in ncaab is when a big favorite trails at halftime and they are a big minus points favorite to comeback and just win the game by a point or 2-
they usually do comeback- i've fallen sucker for that bif + 11 at the half and almost always lost

on almost any given day if you wager a small equal amount on all small money line dogs- you would come out plus money
small being below 10 on the regular line
using a little capping / common sense to eliminate some of the sure losers

hope this helps a little

good luck

qman615 · 02-26-09, 05:07 PM

5's - I am a person that believes that once I am proven wrong to acknowledge it.....Good call on the game last night. Once I realized I had no chance to cover, I was rooting for your parlay.

BOL moving forward....