Premise: i beg your pardon for my poor English. I’m from Italy and at school I studied French and German (Latin and Old Greek too). I studied English by myself during Military Service.
Machine…. Very interisting method, I appreciate it, very profitable, don’t change it
BUT……
1) too long: now I understand why you spent 1 hour each bet
2) all data you are studying, same data (and much more other) are studied by bookmakers
3) I too, time ago, studied Sagarin, Dunkel, Sauceda, and so on……
4) too complicated: as market stock, junk bond, derivates, switch etc etc… at the end market (and finance, and real economy too (unfortunately) blew up; so, in my opinion, bettors. The only one gaining (as Lehman managers) are bookies
Then I changed, remaining profitable, but more simply, assuming that all you can study, bookies have already studied, all injuries and news are incorporated in changing lines, and so on.
I don’t know anything about USA sports…. Since 5 years my most profitable sport is Arena, and only last year I knew what Arena was. I don’t know rules, players, teams, I never saw a baseball game, basket game, only 1 NFL game (this year Baltimore-Tennessee, very boring), I don’t know where is Villanova, Cornell (is it a town?), Butler, Rider, Loyola-IL (even if I suppose is in Illinois) … all teams today I’m betting on.
And so, How can I bet on NCAA (and NFL, CollFB, NBA, WNBA, MLB, CFL, Arena, the only one I don’t bet is NHL)?
Years ago, I downloaded 10 (ten) years results, handicap and odds for every USA sports (from Statfox, Covers and so on) and after I studied them with Excel macro and Access VBA; I found some repetitiveness (except for NHL), you can call them “rules”, and now I bet according to them. I know bookies are doing the same, but every year I wait for a while after season started. So I can understand new bookies policy. A new update at the middle of the season (on NCAA 11Jen) and so I can choose 10/20/30 NCAA games in 5/10 minutes using official website data and my Excel macro. I spend more time on choosing bookmaker (I have Pinnacle, Betcris, Legendz, Thepig, Betjamaica, Laspalmas, 5Dimes) than choosing games!!!
Same profitability, but more simple and more sure: I don’t wager a lot of $$ on a single game, but 0.5-1% my bankroll (according a very usefull money managing article I read 5-6 years ago).
So far in NCAA I’m 289/224 posted here; in the reality 367/256 since 12/01/08 (starting season is absolutely the more profitable period)
But you are right
1) The key is money management. Money Management means you will always come out on top in the long run!
2) Before you bet, you have to study (only 3% bettors are winner): method, system can be different but you must have a method to be in this 3%
Good luck, keep up your good work and AD MAIORA (Latin, see at Wikipedia)
My best greeting from Italy
Machine…. Very interisting method, I appreciate it, very profitable, don’t change it
BUT……
1) too long: now I understand why you spent 1 hour each bet
2) all data you are studying, same data (and much more other) are studied by bookmakers
3) I too, time ago, studied Sagarin, Dunkel, Sauceda, and so on……
4) too complicated: as market stock, junk bond, derivates, switch etc etc… at the end market (and finance, and real economy too (unfortunately) blew up; so, in my opinion, bettors. The only one gaining (as Lehman managers) are bookies
Then I changed, remaining profitable, but more simply, assuming that all you can study, bookies have already studied, all injuries and news are incorporated in changing lines, and so on.
I don’t know anything about USA sports…. Since 5 years my most profitable sport is Arena, and only last year I knew what Arena was. I don’t know rules, players, teams, I never saw a baseball game, basket game, only 1 NFL game (this year Baltimore-Tennessee, very boring), I don’t know where is Villanova, Cornell (is it a town?), Butler, Rider, Loyola-IL (even if I suppose is in Illinois) … all teams today I’m betting on.
And so, How can I bet on NCAA (and NFL, CollFB, NBA, WNBA, MLB, CFL, Arena, the only one I don’t bet is NHL)?
Years ago, I downloaded 10 (ten) years results, handicap and odds for every USA sports (from Statfox, Covers and so on) and after I studied them with Excel macro and Access VBA; I found some repetitiveness (except for NHL), you can call them “rules”, and now I bet according to them. I know bookies are doing the same, but every year I wait for a while after season started. So I can understand new bookies policy. A new update at the middle of the season (on NCAA 11Jen) and so I can choose 10/20/30 NCAA games in 5/10 minutes using official website data and my Excel macro. I spend more time on choosing bookmaker (I have Pinnacle, Betcris, Legendz, Thepig, Betjamaica, Laspalmas, 5Dimes) than choosing games!!!
Same profitability, but more simple and more sure: I don’t wager a lot of $$ on a single game, but 0.5-1% my bankroll (according a very usefull money managing article I read 5-6 years ago).
So far in NCAA I’m 289/224 posted here; in the reality 367/256 since 12/01/08 (starting season is absolutely the more profitable period)
But you are right
1) The key is money management. Money Management means you will always come out on top in the long run!
2) Before you bet, you have to study (only 3% bettors are winner): method, system can be different but you must have a method to be in this 3%
Good luck, keep up your good work and AD MAIORA (Latin, see at Wikipedia)
My best greeting from Italy
