hoop guru's halftime picks for thurs

[hoop guru]

I was 4-1 in halftime picks yesterday. I have 4 plays for tonite:


Gonzaga -2 (1st half)
Gonzaga under 64.5 (1st half)
George Mason -3 (1st half)
Idaho/utah st over 59 (1st half)

Good luck

[seanjohn007]

so far ive really liked your plays but to be honest im not sure about sac st. Did you mean that montana only has 2 double digit ROAD victories? because i was looking at covers and it it shows that Montana has won 8 out of its last 10 and four of those eight wins are by ten or more points, but only one of those four wins was on the road. all of which are pretty good stats but on the other hand sac st. has only won one out of its last ten and is 4-6 ats. if you want to look at when they were double digit dogs in the last ten games they are 3-4. Their three wins were when they were 24.5 ,17.5(when as you said they lost by 17 to Montana) and 11.5 point dogs. there losses were when they were 14, 10, 16, and 15.5 points dogs. So after looking at this what am i missing, to me it seems like montana should roll over sac st. Also please don't take any of this as being condescending, as thats not the message im trying to send across at all, im just trying to find out what your seeing that im not.

[hoop guru]

After looking further into, I do not think that it is worth risking anything on sac st. I am changing my mind about sac st and now have a first half total. I have updated an over at the half on the chatanooga game.

[hoop guru]

Gonzaga/St Mary's under 64.5 (1st half)
-St Mary's has really struggled offensively against good competition without their best player (mills). Mills scored 18 points against gonzaga (6/8 3 pointers) all in the fist half on Jan 29. St Mary's led 39-33 at half thanks to Mills 3 point shooting. After Mills got hurt, Gonzaga outscored St Mary's 36-23 in the 2nd half. Another key fact in the 2nd half: 11 points were scored scored in the last 46 seconds of the 2nd half. THese were garbage points (st mary's hit 2 3 pointers and gonzaga hit 5 free throws in the last 46 seconds). If you take that into consideration, the 2nd half the st mary's game was real low scoring (st mary's and gonzaga conbined only to score 48 points in the first 19 minutes of the 2nd half. Only other player to score in double figures against Gonzaga was D. Simpson who had 17 points and 12 rebounds. I look for St Mary's to try to slow down the pace of the game and keep it low scoring. One player (Mills) is going to make a difference on this total in the first half.
-My prediction is that the first half of this game is going to be a lot the 2nd half of the Jan 29th game. I see one team, Gonzaga scoring in the 30's and the other team (St Mary's) scoring in the 20's in the first half.
Gonzaga -2 (h)
-This is going to be an easy cover for Gonzaga which has been tough on the road. Gonzaga did not cover the half spread of its game at portland. Portland led 43-42 at the half but Gonzaga won 93-78. After watching how poorly Gonzaga played Memphis on saturday in the first half and the game, I think Gonzaga makes a statement tonite at St marys.

[hoop guru]

More on the Gonzaga under 64.5 and Gonzaga -2 (h). In that game earlier against the Gonzaga, Mills made 6 of 8 3 pointers in that game. Mills teammates were 3 for 19 from 3 point range. Without Mills, ST Marys only scored 23 points in the 2nd half. St Mary's has played a total of 7 halfs of basekball since Mills injury. Here are the results of those 7 quarters.

Gonzaga 36 St Mary's 23 (2nd half)
Portland 36 St marys 29 (1st half)
Portland 48 St Mary's 37 (2nd half)
St Mary's 36 San Francisco 22 (1st half)
St mary's 43 San francisco 36 (2nd half)
Santa Clara 32 st marys 27 (1st half)
Santa clara 38 st mary's 25 (2nd half)

St Mary's has been outscored in 5 of the 7 halfs since Mill's injury. Mills injury did not have impact on the san francisco game as SF is horrenndous. Only chance for St Mary's to keep it close is to slow down the game. Both Gonzaga and st mary's will play good defense. If santa clara can hold st mary's to 27 points in the first half, Gonzaga should be able to do the same.

Prediction: Gonzaga 33 St Mary's 22 (half)

[hoop guru]

Adding another halftime pick

Tenn Tech +6
-This game is at Murray st. Murray state played on Feb 4 at Tenn st, Feb 7 at Austin Peay and Feb 9 at Eastern Illinois. Murray sat covered all three of those games at halftime. Murray st has covered 5 straight games at halftime. Tenn TEch was the last team to cover against Murray st on Jan 17, 2009. Tenn tech led at halftime by a score of 34-27 and won the game 61-55. Tenn tech has lost 3 striaght home games heading into this game. The scheduling favors the road team (tenn tech) as Murray st has played 3 straight away games. Tenn tech should be hungry for a win after losing 3 straight at home. Six points is a lot for a confernce game.

[BiffTFinancial]

hoop - like the gonzaga/st mary 1H under pick a lot. did you decide against the elon/chatt over? if so, out of curiosity, was there any particular reason? thanks.

[hoop guru]

hoop - like the gonzaga/st mary 1H under pick a lot. did you decide against the elon/chatt over? if so, out of curiosity, was there any particular reason? thanks.

I do not have much success picking overs as I do picking unders at the half. I am 15-3 on picking over/unders at the half since sunday. Last night I lost on rivrside by taking the over. I just do not like taking overs at the half. Out of those 3 losses in halftime totals, two were by taking the over. Gonzaga/St mary's is the only game tonite that draws my attention. I am going to unload real heavy on the under in the first half. Elon/Chat is a little risky with a high over/under. That is just a lean. If I was going to wager on it, I would take the over 65.5 in that game. It seems like, whenever we agree on an under, not only it hits but its not even close (so far we are 4-0 this week). Thanks again for agreeing with my under with richmond and WIlliam & mary. Those games were not even close to going over the total in the first half.

[seanjohn007]

glad you changed your mind on sac st. i like the gonzaga play thought

[hoop guru]

glad you changed your mind on sac st. i like the gonzaga play thought

I will unload 2200-2000 on the under at the half. That is how much I like it. Yestertday, I felt bad for everyone on the riverside game. I only $200 on the over in the riverside game so for me it really did not matter. I will not post an over again as I am not good at picking overs at the half. I rather pick unders like I am doing with gonzaga game tonite. I am really confident about this under with the injury to the st mary player. I like unders because injuries help us and we never know who will get hurt next.

[BiffTFinancial]

I do not have much success picking overs as I do picking unders at the half. I am 15-3 on picking over/unders at the half since sunday. Last night I lost on rivrside by taking the over. I just do not like taking overs at the half. Out of those 3 losses in halftime totals, two were by taking the over. Gonzaga/St mary's is the only game tonite that draws my attention. I am going to unload real heavy on the under in the first half. Elon/Chat is a little risky with a high over/under. That is just a lean. If I was going to wager on it, I would take the over 65.5 in that game. It seems like, whenever we agree on an under, not only it hits but its not even close (so far we are 4-0 this week). Thanks again for agreeing with my under with richmond and WIlliam & mary. Those games were not even close to going over the total in the first half.

The props are all yours, hoop. I'm just glad that watching and keeping up with CAA games all these years is coming in handy for someone. I'm playing Zags 1H, keeping Elon/Chatt as a lean and playing MTSU/Troy under (147) as my only other o/u for tonight (MTSU really takes the air out of the ball on the road). I've always been reluctant with halftime wagers out of habit, but the ncaa hoop first half over/unders make a lot of sense in the right spots (esp unders). This thread has been good sprinkle for the card for sure, so thanks for hosting. BOL tonight. Let's keep it going into the weekend.

[TheGambler]

love what you are doing my friend. i looked at your thread last night and saw you were 3-0. i played the riverside game and obviously it lost so you can blame my bad luck!! anyways, i'm tailing you on all picks tonight so good luck my friend. keep it up!

[Laker_crazy]

wassup people...hi again hoop..any possible over's for first half tonite??whats your opinion guys?

Laker_crazy

Its not how you play the game...its how the game plays you..!!

[hoop guru]

1000 pm est game Utah st/idaho over 59 1st half (1st half)

[seanjohn007]

what happened to no more overs ?

[hoop guru]

what happened to no more overs ?

I am throwing small wagers on the overs tonite to see how they go. My big money is on the gonzaga under 64.5. Please do not follow me on those overs, it could be disasterous like yesterday with long beach st.

I really do like utah st/idaho to go over 59. Utah st had its lowest scoring game of the year against the slow motion lousiana tech squad. Got to realize that no other college basketball can slow down the pace of a game like Lousiana tech (perhaps princeton). Utah st won that game by a score of 60-52. the halftime score was 22-17 utah st. Idaho had a similar game but lost badly to hawaii. Idaho lost 71-49 and the halftime score was 28-17. I expect both teams to do much better than they did in their previous games.

key fact: Utah st has scored 40 or more points in the first half of the previous 5 games against idaho going back to 2006. In each of those games, the total at the half of each of those games were over 60. Idaho played at Utah st on Jan 5, 2009 and utah st won 70-61. The first half score was Utah st 40 Idaho 34. This was the most competitive game so far between these two schools.

My prediction: both Utah st and idaho will score over 30 points each in the first half. I believe this is a steal at 59 like RIce was yesterday.

[Laker_crazy]

I am backing Elon @ Tennessee Chat..the first half totals to be over 65.5....It should be a winner..

[hoop guru]

I am backing Elon @ Tennessee Chat..the first half totals to be over 65.5....It should be a winner..

That is a winner for sure. Take a look into utah st over 59, that is going to be a winner too. And, the lock is gonzaga tonite staying under 64.5. good luck

[Laker_crazy]

yep..just waiting for the game to start..i have locked gonzaga as well long back...i also like the under there..good luck

[Laker_crazy]

10-5 with 14.31 to play

[Laker_crazy]

12-5 with 13.16 left...need some quick points...

[Laker_crazy]

14-10 with 11.26 left...

[Laker_crazy]

this game is turning out to be real slow...need some quick points...

[Laker_crazy]

17-10 with 10.00 left

[Laker_crazy]

20-11 with 9.28 left

[Laker_crazy]

20-13 with 8.24 left...need quick buckets for a chance....

[Laker_crazy]

23-15 with 7.23 left...

[Laker_crazy]

23-19 with 6.41...some quick buckets would help right now..

[Laker_crazy]

23-19 still with 6.12 left

[Laker_crazy]

25-20 with 5.39 left..a few three s would help..right nw

[Laker_crazy]

27-24 with 4 left...getting close....

[Laker_crazy]

27-26 with 3.33 left

[Laker_crazy]

13 pointed needed in 3 minutes

[Laker_crazy]

29-28 with 1.47 left...not unless 3 pointers now..

[Laker_crazy]

32-28...3 possession in one minute