3 Team Parlay from a Noob

pinnacle212 · 02-11-09, 11:26 AM

Didnt Evansiville get blown out by Illinois State at home. Give me some info

007Fatty · 02-11-09, 12:58 PM

oh wow.
good luck man i hope it hits!

mattk8s · 02-11-09, 03:22 PM

Well, I must forewarn you that I'm an Evansville homer.

Illinois St. did crush Evansville 80-50 @ Illinois St. That was when they were 14-0 and knocking down everything in sight. I am a huge Missouri Valley fan, and have seen a much different turnover prone, ice cold shooting team lately. It's like night and day.

Illinois St.'s PG and leading assist man just quit the team. A couple of their backups are hurt. They're just 5-5 in their last 10, including 1-4 on the road in Valley play. They're coming off a loss at home to league worst (5-19) Indiana State. I expect their spirits to be down.

Evansville is ready for revenge. New coach and former Evansville player has them turned around in his 2nd year. If it weren't for a couple heart breakers on the road, they would be (9-4) in conference. Evansville is 13-2 at home.

Don't blame me if you lose, I'm an Evansville homer.

Hells Kitchen · 02-11-09, 03:40 PM

Shoot 1 k wow thats a lot of bread.
Good luck to ya

flavo-ice · 02-11-09, 03:50 PM

I like the Evansville pick, good logic behind it. Other 2 are name brand, which are always supposed to be safe, right?

I think you can find a better game than unc/duke to put in the parlay, just my 2 cents. Anything could go down in that game, and it appears everyone is on unc. Some solid cappers I know are on Duke and loving the public action on unc.

The small okl line makes me hesitate as well. For a team that has owned Baylor at home like they have, I'd expect a higher line. I'm still looking into the game, but first impression off the cuff is they are looking to entice Okl action.

You seem to have a real grasp on the MVC, aren't there some other games in that conference tonight that you have good insight on?

For example, I'd love to know how UNI is going to respond tonight after the winning streak was finally ended by Creighton.

mattk8s · 02-11-09, 04:04 PM

Flavo, I hear you on UNC and OK, I'm worried but I'm rolling the dice. That is just my style. I've been up big and lost big. I'll still be up for the week.

Only other Valley play I like is Creighton (ML). But it is at (-550). Game is on FSN MW at 7:30 central

Another parlay: 1K to win 1250

Lakers (pk)
Creighton (ML)

I could be making a huge fool of myself tonight.

flavo-ice · 02-11-09, 04:17 PM

Wow. If those 2 parlays don't hit you just burned 2/3's of your profit. If that is the case, will you be able to just say who cares and go at it tomorrow, or will you be in full chase mode? And then end up burning your last 1/3 of profit and dipping into your bankroll.

If you feel good about the games you should be playing them all individually for the largest unit plays and then tying them up in the parlays for much smaller unit plays.

That way if you hit 3 for 5 u still cash and if you go better then possibly hit the parlays. Just not wise money management strategy. I know you've been hitting well but it can turn just as quickly. Question is, if it turns will you chase, or will you be able to stop and start grinding it out again?

mattk8s · 02-11-09, 07:55 PM

You're right my money management skills are terrible right now. I started betting on sports about 3 years ago. I started with great money management skills. I hit a few parlays to get the bankroll up and then lost most of it on big favorite money lines. Most of my effort has been spent chasing the high points of my career. Once you win big and lose big a few times over, I feel like the fear kinda goes away. It always sucks to lose big, but it's hard for me to enjoy where I am if I am lower than any peak in winnings.

I already feel the vibe in the air that I am going to lose my 3 teamer. Probably shouldn't have made it last night. My trustworthy Lakers hopefully will cover my losses.

Regardless of win, lose, or draw, I will most likely back off a bit until I get into position to make another big gamble.

mattk8s · 02-11-09, 09:02 PM

Alright, Evansville is getting smacked 45-24 at half, so 1 more to make up

250 to win 2500

Oklahoma (ML)
Lakers (PK)
North Carolina (-2)
Evansville 2nd half (-3)

flavo-ice · 02-12-09, 09:23 AM

Get your money management act together. Once you saw your first parlay wasn't going to hit you slapped down another, even more difficult 4 teamer together to win it all back. Just what I was afraid of, into full chase mode to try and get your "profits" back. I wouldn't be surprised if you played even more late night last night after the 4 teamer went down.

You just blew 2,250 of 3k profit on junk. Parlays are crap, exactly what the books want you to play cause they lose more often than not. If you must play parlays, do a 2 gamer max and for smaller unit action. Hard enough to hit 1 game, let alone 2, 3, or 4 together.

Do you realize if you had just played your initial 5 games straight you would have cleared a small profit for the night? UNC(W), OK(W), Creighton(W), Evansville(L), Lakers(L).

It may have just been a "tiny" profit, and not the huge gains you want, but it would have been a profit nonetheless, and that is the name of the game here. There will be another time to go "big".

If you didn't already blow through your remaining 750 late last night, and possibly even into your bankroll, how you handle your next step is of critical importance. As I asked yesterday, if you lost the parlays would you just say who cares and go back to grinding? It appears you chased hard.

So you can either chase hard attempting to recoup that 3K, and odds are you will lose your remaining 750 plus your bankroll, or you can grind it out and make profit, no matter how big or small. Quit trying to make a splash all at once.

And quit playing all name brand teams. You apparently felt the lakers were close to a lock since 2 of your parlays revolved around them. Put that Mo Valley insight to good use, you seem to have an interest and a good base of knowledge regarding that conference.