Sun, Feb 8 Plays

curious · 02-08-09, 02:57 PM

Richmond 2H -180 ML 5.4 to win 3 Loss
Crighton 2H +100 ML 3 to win 3 Win

curious · 02-08-09, 03:00 PM

Portland State -6900 1380 to win 20 units

curious · 02-08-09, 03:02 PM

Niagara 2H -225 ML 9 to win 4 Win

shoebox · 02-08-09, 03:04 PM

portland st spread not a bad idea either curious

curious · 02-08-09, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by shoebox

portland st spread not a bad idea either curious

I never lay points. The only reason I laid points on Akron is because they are so inconsistent you never know which team is going to show up, but I figured even they could cover 8 vs W. Michigan.

EVERY time I lay big points I get burned. Sacramento State scored 9 points in the first half yesterday. So, unless Portland State team dies of the black death before game time and there is a forfeit I am guessing I am okay on them.

curious · 02-08-09, 03:08 PM

I just realized I bet against Illinois at home. WHY didn't someone smack me in the head? One of these days I am going to look at what team my picks are playing.

MicGan · 02-08-09, 03:11 PM

Originally posted by curious

I just realized I bet against Illinois at home. WHY didn't someone smack me in the head? One of these days I am going to look at what team my picks are playing.

Penn St, Wake Forest, Standford all at home!

curious · 02-08-09, 03:59 PM

2H Wisconsin +3 -110 3.3 to win 3

curious · 02-08-09, 04:59 PM

2H Boston College +8

2H Boston College +8 -110 3.3 to win 3

curious · 02-08-09, 05:06 PM

2H Boston College Money line +350

2H Boston College Money line +350 1 to win 3.5

curious · 02-08-09, 06:16 PM

10-11 +23 units

I'm glad I started this new betting strategy of betting more on the higher probability plays.

I could have done just Louisville and Portland State today and left all this other crap alone and been +30 units.

Hopefully Illinois State comes through for us tonight.

50lipa · 02-09-09, 10:09 AM

And thats the only ****ing problem of betting ML on huge favourites. If it goes down, it ****ing hurts the bankroll. Just hope this setback is not too big for you.

curious · 02-09-09, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by 50lipa

And thats the only ****ing problem of betting ML on huge favourites. If it goes down, it ****ing hurts the bankroll. Just hope this setback is not too big for you.

Sorry for the rant. I misunderstood. My apologies.

Hardly. Do you even read my posts? Every day, day in and day out I post at least 20 plays a day n NBA and NCAAB, my overall record is > 70%. One bad beat doesn't matter.

Please keep this bullshit about playing money line favs to yourself. I get it. I've heard this whining 100 times. I get it. The pussies on SBR cannot lay money. The reason that they cannot lay money is they have a lunch money bankroll. And they don't know how to calculate EV, so they don't know how to evaluate the value of a money line. Every gambler that I know who is any good takes odds that have value regardless of whether or not that is laying or taking odds.

Do you go to the horse betting forums and fukk with the posters who lay 2000 to win 200 on the favorite? Horse bettors do that all the time.

I am SICK of listening to this bullshit about the "danger" of laying odds. yes, sometimes the big money line favs lose. That is why they call it gambling.

I am pretty sure you didn't bet any money on this play so why do you give a fukk?

This is how it works. You have to play +EV plays. EV is determined by ACTUAL probability of winning * odds offered * variance.

This play was a very high +EV. Not all +EV plays win. DUH.

If you don't like my picks then don't play them. Feel free to fade me and post your betting ticket so we can see how long it takes you to go bankrupt.

50lipa · 02-09-09, 02:18 PM

Actually all i did was express concern for your loss. Sorry for that. I've been tailing you for a long time and i completely understand your bets. Some times i chose not to lay money on them, not because i don't trust your judgement or expertise, but because i don't think my bankroll can suffer their loss. In the end everyone wins.

Don't get me wrong Curious, there are many idiots on this forum, i'm not one of them, atleast i try not to be.

curious · 02-09-09, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by 50lipa

Actually all i did was express concern for your loss. Sorry for that. I've been tailing you for a long time and i completely understand your bets. Some times i chose not to lay money on them, not because i don't trust your judgement or expertise, but because i don't think my bankroll can suffer their loss. In the end everyone wins.

Don't get me wrong Curious, there are many idiots on this forum, i'm not one of them, atleast i try not to be.

Sorry, I misunderstood.

I do not recommend to people to play money line favs if they don't have a bankroll at least 100 times their biggest loss. Even a 200 unit loss is not a big concern to me in terms of % of bank. I know it doesn't seem like it, but I am VERY cautious in terms of risk of ruin. I look for this situation on all plays:
value line (real probability of winning) * odds * variance > 60%. Then I size the amount risked to be no more than .5 or 1% of bank. If I REALLY like a play I might go to 2 or 3 % of bank. I had a play the other day (it won) that was 5% of bank. Those don't happen that often.

I have found if you actually cap the games and know the true EV then it is better to play as many big favs as you can find where there is +EV.

I also always find a play I can make my money back on if I have a big loss. The other day I lost 54 units on someone, VCU, I think. Then I found a SMOKING +EV 2H play and I played that for 55 units. That play won.

I was busy last night and didn't see the Illinois State loss till late. I'll just find a 200 unit play in the next day or two and cover it.