CK's Carjacking the NCAA Threads Leans for Tuesday 2/3/09

JGILL50 · 02-03-09, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by Furt

exactly. The public seemed to be heavy on the raptors +11.5 hence the line dropping. I am hoping for it to drop another point though that is probably wishful thinking

The public is hammering Cleveland not Toronto that's why the RLM makes the raptors a smart play or Cleveland a no play

The Oddsbreaker · 02-03-09, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

actually the public is slightly on the spurs at 53% - which makes me love this game even more with tremendous RLM. so you're actually betting with the public on this one.

I'm with ya Dex! SA coming off a long, draining, back and forth, overtime game against GS and then having to go to Denver the next night and play a potentially similar style of basketball does not bode well for them. In my humble opinion, Denver is the play!

cocknocker · 02-03-09, 03:40 PM

Tomorrow I am liking

Virginia+5.5 (projected) 4 straight double digit losses, BC 4 straight wins, I see a reverse blowout coming!
Providence+3.5 (projected)
Notre Dame-2.5 (projected)

lambogb · 02-03-09, 03:43 PM

thought id share 2 college games im on:

BYU -11 (bought 1/2)

Cougars are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5.
Cougars are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings
Favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

BYU's last game was a 24 point win over Wyoming who had a 13 point win over the force

air force on an 8 game losing streak gettin straight KILLED by anyone they play

ill probaly take BYU 1H too. think its -6.5

Akron -8 (bought hook)

Zips are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite
Zips are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall
Zips are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5.
Zips are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite.

one hot trend in the other direction:
Home team is 9-0 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

but akron has won the last 5 by 19, 10, 5, 18, 12, and 8

akron 4 game win streak, e. mich 6 game losing streak also gettin killed (lowest deficit in the last 6 games was 8 points)

prolly gona play this 1H also

losturmarbles · 02-03-09, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by Furt

exactly. The public seemed to be heavy on the raptors +11.5 hence the line dropping. I am hoping for it to drop another point though that is probably wishful thinking

public doesnt move lines, money does. (generally)

and cleveland is almost always a public team. 85% on them tonight. line has moved against the public (rlm) suggesting a lot of sharp money is on raptors covering.

lambogb · 02-03-09, 03:45 PM

one thing that i dont understand tho, is that akron started at -10 today..
BYU was at -12 at one point but im just assuming some money went in the other direction

Dexter · 02-03-09, 03:45 PM

92% of the public is on celts tonight - wow...with an upcoming game (circled for revenge) vs the lakers on thur, i would be very scared of this game if you're a boston backer.

lambogb · 02-03-09, 03:50 PM

yea boston = no play for me just because of the look ahead factor

just locked UNC 1H -12.5.. gonna martingale 2nd if maryland somehow stays close

akharlip · 02-03-09, 03:55 PM

Boston will get it done tonight.........

Tonights Picks

Celtics-HEAVY
Nuggets-BIG (DEX LETS GET EM)
Florida-7(The hook, thanks CK)
NC-13(1H)

did a little something something on a FLORIDA(-7), BYU(-10.5),AKRON(-8) PARLAY

BOL
THANKS

akharlip

BmoreBucco · 02-03-09, 03:56 PM

I really like Purdue tonight. They have played really well on the road, having gone to Minnesota and Wisconsin recently and winning straight up. Purdue hasn't won in Columbus since 1998 and I actually think that is keeping the line down because I believe they should actually be giving more points in this ESPN game. They did take OSU to OT last season in Columbus. Purdue is the better team this season.

I'm rolling with Purdue -1 (buying hook)

Furt · 02-03-09, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by peterpan19

nba first quarter plays:
Ind -1
Hou -2
Bos -0.5
first half:
Cle -5

actually I like the 1H line for the cavs. Think they will come out of the gates strong. I've notice the 3rd quarter has been their weakest quarter of late...

Dexter · 02-03-09, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by lambogb

yea boston = no play for me just because of the look ahead factor

just locked UNC 1H -12.5.. gonna martingale 2nd if maryland somehow stays close

yeah, i love angles like that. too bad i cant bring myself to bet against the celts. i did a few weeks ago with orl, and am still shaking my head at that call. lol

JGILL50 · 02-03-09, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by losturmarbles

public doesnt move lines, money does. (generally)

and cleveland is almost always a public team. 85% on them tonight. Line has moved against the public (rlm) suggesting a lot of sharp money is on raptors covering.

this

maddogmadden86 · 02-03-09, 04:09 PM

liking byu and marquette first half

Also did anyone take my advice and buy some XBI at 51, this bad boy is going through the roof!

Dfjay9 · 02-03-09, 04:10 PM

Raptors play Lakers tomorrow at home. I like Cleveland in this one and if not Double up on the lakers tomorrow

maddogmadden86 · 02-03-09, 04:16 PM

does anyone like taking as a prop bet brook lopez for rookie of the year at +3000, im from jersey and follow the nets lopez averages a double double almost every game and is improving every game i put some peanuts on it just seeing if anyone else feels the same way

GreatDanes52 · 02-03-09, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by esz04

BYU looks like a great pick. Just can't figure out why the line is moving the wrong way with 90% of the bets on BYU

Yea im not sure either its moved from 12 to 11.5 on my book with %70 on BYU...

RoagBettor · 02-03-09, 04:28 PM

I'm betting Cleveland HEAVY tomorrow against the Knicks. Kobe just dropped 61 on NY, and Lebron is going to show his future hometown what they're getting in 2 years.

ClockCleaner · 02-03-09, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by PittChicGambles

I like the spurs on the ML dexter...too many people going for denver...

It does'nt matter how many people or on Denver tonite. The fact is SA is playing BTB off an overtime game and that spells disaster for the Spurs. This game would have been tough enough for them without those factors effecting it.

cs11787 · 02-03-09, 04:31 PM

CK,
Do you take all of your secret plays BIG or just certain ones?

johnnyP · 02-03-09, 04:37 PM

Seems like a lot of guys are paying attention to what the public is doing, what sharp money is doing what all kinds of things are doing and forgetting to look at who the better teams are. I love all the angles about b2b and upcoming games against rivals and the all important revenge factor, but the bottom line is..... better teams usually win.

Cavs -11
Toronto is as dysfunctional as can be right now. Chris Bosh is blaming their home crowd on their bad play and they are imploding before our eyes. Lebron saw Kobe's stats from last night and he wants that MVP this year.

Celtics -4
Celtics play better ball when they have a little drama. With KG sick they will have to rotate the ball more and this is when Paul Pierce steps up and leads the celts. Dont think he didnt notice Kobe scoring 61 last night.

Spurs +6.5
The Spurs are the kings of close games. There is certainly a chance that their geriatric legs might break down tonight but they are playing to the level of their competition and getting the job done in all kinds of circumstances lately. They may not win but I think they will keep it close enough to cover.

I am off to referee a couple of youth basketball games tonight. Those kids better have their sidekick phones ready with my scores!

Good Luck guys and have a good night!

cocknocker · 02-03-09, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by cs11787

CK,
Do you take all of your secret plays BIG or just certain ones?

I play them all for $1500.00 apiece even the football ones.

cs11787 · 02-03-09, 04:42 PM

I forgot what you average bet is. Is $1500 average, big, or heavy to you?

cocknocker · 02-03-09, 04:52 PM

$150.00 to $300.00 SMALL

$500 is usually my average/MEDIUM

$1000 to $1500 is BIG

Anything over that can be considered HEAVY which usually means 3-5 dimes

cs11787 · 02-03-09, 04:57 PM

Ok cool thanks alot. I didnt know because yesterday you put Dav 1H (BIG) and didnt put (BIG) today on UNC. Lol. So if Im correct youre taking GM (Ave), Flor (Ave) UNC 1H (BIG)?

Dexter · 02-03-09, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by johnnyP

Seems like a lot of guys are paying attention to what the public is doing, what sharp money is doing what all kinds of things are doing and forgetting to look at who the better teams are. I love all the angles about b2b and upcoming games against rivals and the all important revenge factor, but the bottom line is..... better teams usually win.

very true JP - but as nonsense would say, "in this thing of ours" just winning isnt always enough when you have to deal with a point spread

The_Kid · 02-03-09, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by maddogmadden86

does anyone like taking as a prop bet brook lopez for rookie of the year at +3000, im from jersey and follow the nets lopez averages a double double almost every game and is improving every game i put some peanuts on it just seeing if anyone else feels the same way

I think it's a good bet but don't go crazy with it. New Jersey is only a couple games out of the 8th spot in the East and I think the emergence of Harris AND Lopez is why. Depending on what the voters look at for ROY, I'd say it comes down to either Lopez, Mayo, or Westbrook.

peterpan19 · 02-03-09, 05:10 PM

dex thx for the info
I got it wrong, Denver is 4-1 ATS overall

TheLemonDropKid · 02-03-09, 05:10 PM

Where's Hockeytown today????????????

Dexter · 02-03-09, 05:13 PM

np P2

maddog/the kid.....i dont about lopez winning the ROY. Rose has tailed off a bit, but he or Mayo should win it. i hope lopez has a big 2nd half. he's my new number 2 center with bynum having gone down.

ANDYW15 · 02-03-09, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by johnnyP

Cavs -11
Toronto is as dysfunctional as can be right now. Chris Bosh is blaming their home crowd on their bad play and they are imploding before our eyes. Lebron saw Kobe's stats from last night and he wants that MVP this year.

I think this explains some of the RLM. People will be thinking Toronto will want to come out and play really hard to show the fans back home they are not in as bad a shape as it appears. The question is whether they have anything at the moment to be able to show the fans even if they want too.

BmoreBucco · 02-03-09, 05:20 PM

Prop bet of the day:

Al Jefferson has been a man on a mission lately. In a game with an o/u of 219, there should be plenty of points and rebounds to go around. Especially for the best player on the court.

AL Jefferson over 34.5 points/rebounds (-125)

SamsNCharge99 · 02-03-09, 05:20 PM

CK...I sent a PM, to everyone who is not participating in the tourney as of now. They have till maybe tomorrow afternoon to respond.

Esp. b/c this round is short, the new people should get a chance to start tomorrow having 11 games tomorrow. They can get a good amount of games in then.

Thanks for the support.

BmoreBucco · 02-03-09, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by SamsNCharge99

Esp. b/c this round is short, the new people should get a chance to start tomorrow having 11 games tomorrow. They can get a good amount of games in then.

Thanks for the support.

Let me know if you need a replacement...

cocknocker · 02-03-09, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by cs11787

Ok cool thanks alot. I didnt know because yesterday you put Dav 1H (BIG) and didnt put (BIG) today on UNC. Lol. So if Im correct youre taking GM (Ave), Flor (Ave) UNC 1H (BIG)?

Correct. I thought of taking the Gators BIG but I decided to lay low on that one, although I think it will be a blowout. I may end up kicking myself for it later if they win by 15 or something like that.