Thursday - Pair of 5's Sir

Vonnegut · 01-29-09, 08:36 AM

Hammer that book today, sir.

zackattack · 01-29-09, 08:45 AM

time for a new system........your plays are ice cold for days now

MartinBlank · 01-29-09, 09:43 AM

5's. Are you plays based on the single idea of money/line movements?

Do you consider things like who is playing at home? injuries? matchups?

Wouldn't it stand to reason that any "system" based upon the idea of line movement is bound to be 50% at best? Not trying to be a prickola, just asking.

I mean, take tonight for example.

I love Cleveland State. Why? They are a great defensive team, and Detroit can't score. Now, I doubt this game will appear in your system because I suspect the public doesn't look at Cleveland State all that much, but I see value here. How do you account for value picks if the line stays stagnant? The best value is in stale lines, correct?

Pair of 5s Sir · 01-29-09, 04:19 PM

I have success evaluating games in the confines of my analysis. For those of you who followed the thread, including baseball, I have realized success regardless of your points of view. You would have to agree with the unfortunate change of tide lately, my records is positive units. One of the losses was a result of a family outing that caused me to play a game 2.5 hours before gametime. What is frustrating is I would of waited for a reasonable time before the game within 30-45 minutes and would of clearly got the extra .5 point to take the win. Another two games were the result of games where my selection did not show for the second half of the game. 24-6 and 18-4 runs to start the second half were horrific. Now, I know what your saying is "that's part of the game", but I am comfortable in my consistent pattern of realizing positive returns over the loooong term.

As a challenge, I am willing to put my selections up against anyone for dough or not. Now, I respectfully understand your points of view, but this is how I do it. It is not just line movements. Streaks, win/loss record, SU, ATS, head to head matchups, are all considered in conjuction with line movements.

I know this may surprise you but those who criticize the most usually don't have a record to support their so called superior process.

Most Respectfully

The Contrarian

Pair of 5s Sir · 01-29-09, 07:50 PM

Fade or Play

Sorry for being a little late to the table. A personal commitment that I could not get around. Tonight we get on the board with Troy over North Texas. Contrarian indicators are present with line confirmation. Let me be more specific for those non-believers or believers alike. North Texas has enormous advantage in the head to head ATS and SU stats. The square pounders will see that and their ball will clang. That in and of itself will contribute to at least 2 points in the establishment of the line. Line should be much smaller than what it is. Late money shows that some sharpies are on that with the line clicking down for no apparent statistical reason.

Let me not bore you.

Go to the window and get Troy +6.5

The Contrarian

dob08 · 01-29-09, 07:59 PM

Good luck 5's. I can't play teams that I've never seen. Best of luck to ya though

Pair of 5s Sir · 01-29-09, 08:02 PM

Originally posted by dob08

Good luck 5's. I can't play teams that I've never seen. Best of luck to ya though

I appreciate the encouragement. I guess if I am interested in staying true to my analysis, I have to hang tough. Remember, I am positive units with a horrific last week and a small sample size. Perhaps I will impress or be the butt of the verbal assault.

Good Luck

The Contrarian

Pair of 5s Sir · 01-30-09, 03:47 AM

It's Official

The Contrarian gets back in win mode with the boys from Troy. Troy was strong with the points with ATS and SU win. Let's recap tonight's selection:

Troy +6.5

Overall
10-8-2 55.56% +1.10 units

Dogs
6-5-1 54.55 % +.40 units

Favorites
4-3-1 57.14 +.70 units

I appreciate the encouragement over the past few nights. A shout out goes to Mr. Dob. Have faith ye Contrarios.

The Contrarian