No NCAAB plays from curious for a few days

[curious]

The ncaab plays are not working as well as they should be. They are still winning % wise, but losing units wise due to money line favs losing at too high a rate.

I'm not sure why this is adn I have to do some data mining to find out what the current pattern is.

This happened before when predictions of big moneyline dogs were winning like crazy and now it is hard to predict big moneyline dogs. When that stopped working, I had to do data mining to figure out what the new pattern was.

Anyway. I'm also sick and picking NCAA Bball winners is more subjective than objective and I think being sick has thrown me off.

[kewbwian]

been tailing your picks for a couple weeks now and it's been nice. good luck with your time off and hope you feel better. look forward to your return

[TheGambler]

couldn't agree more. enjoy some time off and get back to good health. enjoying the hell of the nba betting system. just wish i could find that book that allows in quarter betting. PM'd BBD and he didn't know of any in the U.S.

[curious]

couldn't agree more. enjoy some time off and get back to good health. enjoying the hell of the nba betting system. just wish i could find that book that allows in quarter betting. PM'd BBD and he didn't know of any in the U.S.

Just do the Q bets before the game starts and don't worry bout the Martingale. I'm assuming you can bet all 4 Qs before the game starts? I'm also assuming you can do the 3Q after the 1st Half ends? I have a new format now where I have picks for all 4 Quarters. The 3 Quarter is either a pick of one team or says "take the loser of the 1st Half".

The %s work out without the martingale. The martingale just raises the %s.

I stopped posting the martingale results and the quarter plays are still excellent plays.

[TheGambler]

ya, that is what i've been doing and it is working well. the only problem i run into is i can't play the money lines. i have been playing the spread when you choose a favorite and I have lost b/c of the couple of points i had to give. I think that it will still work out over time but I really thought there would be more books that offer money lines on quarter betting before the game starts. the good thing is that 5dimes does offer moneylines on the 1st and 3rd quarter so it is really just the 2nd and 4th quarters i can't get moneylines. thanks again Curious

[homerbush]

The ncaab plays are not working as well as they should be. They are still winning % wise, but losing units wise due to money line favs losing at too high a rate.

I'm not sure why this is adn I have to do some data mining to find out what the current pattern is.

This happened before when predictions of big moneyline dogs were winning like crazy and now it is hard to predict big moneyline dogs. When that stopped working, I had to do data mining to figure out what the new pattern was.

Anyway. I'm also sick and picking NCAA Bball winners is more subjective than objective and I think being sick has thrown me off.

I know you never listen when I say this but you play too many games. Not every game has an exploitable spread or ML. If they did the sportsbooks would be out of business a long time ago.

[accuscoresucks]

have you tried flat betting curios
dont know bro but it looks like you have been betting each game according to strenth you come up with
in my book all bets are created equal exept a few x a year i raise teh ante

[Ralphie1412]

dude do u honestly think u are going to be the first guy to play large money lines all season and never get busted out? You pay way to big of a price on your moneylines. You are going to miss eventually, so if u win you get what 3 units, if u loss u dump like 33. Its never going to work in the long run and i think u are realizing that this season.

[accuscoresucks]

curios will be back i thing he just needs some thera flu

guy plays more lines than lebron scores points

[floridagolfer]

You're looking for answers that don't exist.

[sqvirrel]

dude do u honestly think u are going to be the first guy to play large money lines all season and never get busted out? You pay way to big of a price on your moneylines. You are going to miss eventually, so if u win you get what 3 units, if u loss u dump like 33. Its never going to work in the long run and i think u are realizing that this season.

In an efficient market betting the ML is no different than betting the sides. The idea that laying -500 or -750 regularly is somehow bad or even more risky than just wagering the side is intrinsically wrong. If there is value, there is value, regardless of the spread.

[wild willy]

Hey curious are you feeling any better? I hope so.

[accuscoresucks]

cheer up chap

http://images.search.yahoo.com/images/view?back=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.search.yahoo.com%2Fsearch%2Fimages%3F_adv_prop%3Dimage%26fr%3Db2ie7%26va%3Dget%2Bwell%2Bsoon%26sz%3Dall&w=500&h=427&imgurl=static.flickr.com%2F78%2F230303099_199964ebb7.jpg&rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.flickr.com%2Fphotos%2Ffinlap%2F230303099%2F&size=148.3kB&name=Miss+Taivas+says++Get+Well+Soon&p=get+well+soon&type=JPG&oid=6ef9994941c66a7a&fusr=sure2talk&tit=Miss+Taivas+says++Get+Well+Soon&hurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.flickr.com%2Fphotos%2Ffinlap%2F&no=15&tt=89,335&sigr=11e2a8foj&sigi=11d9ocp3i&sigb=12tbsihah&sigh=114muc08g

[tblueeyes]

hope your feeling better Curious!!

[curious]

dude do u honestly think u are going to be the first guy to play large money lines all season and never get busted out?

Don't know what this means "never get busted out". Sure I lose a few big moneyline favs. But my prediction model picks WINNERS far more often than losers, so the winners more than make up for it.

You pay way to big of a price on your moneylines.

I know for a fact that you have no way of knowing that. Since you have no way of calculating EV for a given money line you have no way of knowing if a given money line is too big a price. You are just guessing that -400 is "too big a price". But if that line should be -1100, then it is a ****ing wonderful price. But since you couldn't determine fair market value for a moneyline if your life depended on it then you can only post this useless bullshit.

You are going to miss eventually,

Yes, I miss periodically.

so if u win you get what 3 units, if u loss u dump like 33. Its never going to work in the long run

Only if you don't consistently pick winners. My prediction model consistently picks far more winners than losers.

and i think u are realizing that this season.

Not sure what you are talking about. I am up tons this season.

I stopped the NCAAB thread because I saw the patterns turning. The pattern at the beginning of the season was big ML dogs, then it turned to big ML favs, now is it small ML favs and dogs. Anyone with half a brain readjusts their math models when they see the patterns changing.

The win % is still great but the units won/lossed is trending slightly negative. Since a lot of people follow these picks, I am not willing to keep making them knowing that the followers might lose a little on them overall.

When I figure out what the new pattern is the NCAAB thread will be back up.

Next time you **** with someone, try to know what you are talking about.

[curious]

hope your feeling better Curious!!

Pretty in pink, I am feeling better NOW.