College Basketball Program Thread

[kroyrunner89]

Alright so I took some of the ideas from my NFL program that hit about 57% on all of its plays since Week 9 (81-59-4 ATS) and I've applied them to conference play in college basketball. I'm currently tracking 4 conferences, the Big Ten, ACC, Pac 10, and Big East. I've got 3 of them up and running right now, I'm still gathering more data from the ACC before I start using those plays. Bottom line, I kicked these plays off a few days ago and I'm 14-3 ATS so far. So, I'm going to track this for the next couple weeks and see if I can keep it up, I'll post my plays in this thread. If it collapses, alright, wasted time and I'll stop. But if I can hit above 55% or so over the next couple weeks I'll keep it going. Enjoy!

[kroyrunner89]

Sunday, 1/11/09 Plays:
Michigan -7.5
Penn State +7
Wisconsin +5.5
St. John's +19
UCLA -2.5

One more note, I'm going to put the plays I like best in bold, hopefully my personal selections can hit at an even higher rate.

[TPowell]

with ya on Wisconsin and Michigan. Thought about Penn State but I don't think they will win and dont want a nailbiter.

[MrMonkey]

Good to have you on Board!

Hey Kroy, didn't know you did CBB with the program? Really appreciated your football selections! You're probably the only person picking Arizona. Great call! At first glance like Wisc. and favoring UCLA, like to get it at -2. Look forward to your post! TPowell does a real good job with CBB.

MrMonkey

[kroyrunner89]

haha yeah with the nfl season winding down i needed something else to track, so i built a program for college basketball that works off of the same principles my football one does. plus i love college basketball just as much as the nfl so i knew i'd enjoy this too. plus you're right, tpowell does do a good job so when he likes some of the same picks i do i gotta feel good about it! i saw ucla at -1.5 at bookmaker.com by the way, so yeah i think you can probably get it lower than -2.5.

glad you liked my football selections, they've been hitting much better lately so i might make it to my 60% goal. definitely something i'll do again next year, getting a new site soon too, just gotta get it ready during the offseason! if basketball goes well, i'll probably get a site going for that as well. thanks for the support along the way though, i've definitely appreciated it!

[kroyrunner89]

Program Plays: 2-3 ATS
Personal Plays: 1-2 ATS

Monday, 1/12/09 Play:
Louisville -6.5

[MrMonkey]

Expecting a 10+ victory if Louisville shoots half decently and goes inside and gets physical with ND! Not a deep ND club! Glad you like this one!

MrMonkey

[kroyrunner89]

Program Plays: 3-3 ATS
Personal Plays: 1-2 ATS
Lucky cover tonight by Louisville, but I'm sure there will be a couple that go against us along the way too. In the end it all evens out. Thought the spread was a little too high which is why I didn't make it a personal play, hopefully I can find some plays I like soon and get that record turned around. Anyways, one game again tomorrow, I'm still waiting on more ACC data and I may add Big 12 and SEC before this is all over.

Tuesday, 1/13/09 Play:
Indiana +17

[MrMonkey]

Program Plays: 3-3 ATS
Personal Plays: 1-2 ATS
Lucky cover tonight by Louisville, but I'm sure there will be a couple that go against us along the way too. In the end it all evens out. Thought the spread was a little too high which is why I didn't make it a personal play, hopefully I can find some plays I like soon and get that record turned around. Anyways, one game again tomorrow, I'm still waiting on more ACC data and I may add Big 12 and SEC before this is all over.

Tuesday, 1/13/09 Play:
Indiana +17

Kroy89. A win is a win is a win!!!! It all evens out. Good pick!

MrMonkey

[kroyrunner89]

Program Plays: 3-4 ATS
Personal Plays: 1-2 ATS
The Indiana play lost, but I can't say I'm surprised, they're absolutely terrible. Tomorrow is a bit bigger of a day, I'm going to hold off on starting ACC plays until after tomorrow's games are over, I made a Big 12 program as well now but that's still probably about a week away from having enough game data to launch. Here is what my program says for tomorrow, I'm liking a couple of them as personal plays:

Wednesday, 1/14/09 Plays:
Michigan +7.5
Michigan State -4.5
South Florida +20.5
Rutgers +8.5
Syracuse +6.5

Good luck tomorrow everyone.

[MrMonkey]

Good luck Kroy, already played IowaSt. & Baylor tonight. Also Cuse, line might go to +7? Thanks1

MrMonkey

[kroyrunner89]

Program Plays: 5-7 ATS
Personal Plays: 2-4 ATS
At the rate this is going I might have to turn this into the "Fade Me Thread". I'm not too discouraged yet just because conference play is still young, I'm hoping as more and more game data gets entered this thing gets rolling better. I'll keep this up for a bit longer, and if things don't improve I'll go away until I can make some adjustments and get it working better.

Thursday, 1/15/09 Plays:
North Carolina -15
Connecticut -12
Minnesota +6.5
Purdue -3.5

[kroyrunner89]

Oops, forgot to include Pac 10 games. Here are the rest:

Thursday, 1/15/09 Plays:
Arizona +11.5
Arizona State PK
Washington -5
Washington State -6

[kroyrunner89]

Program Plays: 8-11-1 ATS
Personal Plays: 4-6 ATS

After a few days of this, its becoming clearer to me that the fast start I had before I started posting was more of a fluke. After some careful analysis of some things, I've decided to stop posting in this thread until I can make some adjustments. I'm seeing that home field/court advantage is much more meaningful in college than it is in the NFL, which I feel plays a big part in the failure of my program so far. I can fix this, but it will take some time. This program does have some upside; when it favors a team by more than 10 it is 17-2 SU, but I'm looking for significant patterns ATS, not straight up. I'll be back in a week or so with a new and improved program hopefully, apologies to all who wasted their time following this lol.