Santa Clara +14, are the linesmakers on crack?

smitch124 · 01-09-09, 03:24 PM

The linemakers do smoke crack on Fri. They had the choice between that and casual dress...

yisman · 01-09-09, 03:27 PM

you're saying you think the line should be Santa Clara by 2?

curious · 01-09-09, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by yisman

you're saying you think the line should be Santa Clara by 2?

Yes

yisman · 01-09-09, 03:41 PM

on the road at the best team in the conference? I'm very confused.

scwical · 01-09-09, 03:51 PM

Curious I am with you on a lot of your picks and the way you look at games but to say Santa Clara should be close to St. Mary's let alone a -2 favorite is crazy. St Marys has won 10 stright and will be ranked in the top 25 sooner than later and will get into the field of 65. Now I saw that SC has played harder teams which could be why they have a losing record but St. Marys at home looks good. Maybe not 14 but 10 atleast.

LT Profits · 01-09-09, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by yisman

on the road at the best team in the conference? I'm very confused.

They are not playing Gonzaga.

LT Profits · 01-09-09, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by curious

I don't get this line at all. I mean, I'll take it. But it seems like the value line here is Santa Clara -2.

Did all the Santa Clara starters die of bubonic plague or something?

Pomeroy has St. Mary's 75, Santa Clara 64

So Clara may have some value at +14, but not as much as you are saying.

Good Luck!

curious · 01-09-09, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by scwical

Curious I am with you on a lot of your picks and the way you look at games but to say Santa Clara should be close to St. Mary's let alone a -2 favorite is crazy. St Marys has won 10 stright and will be ranked in the top 25 sooner than later and will get into the field of 65. Now I saw that SC has played harder teams which could be why they have a losing record but St. Marys at home looks good. Maybe not 14 but 10 atleast.

Look at strength of schedule.

Chi_archie · 01-10-09, 12:03 AM

curious's pick is looking very good thus far

Madball · 01-10-09, 12:06 AM

I might be on crack but I jumped on SC +9.5 2nd half BIG.
The other game was a real thriller--San Fran couldn't beat our local high school team

ZBOIZ · 01-10-09, 12:09 AM

Originally posted by Madball

I might be on crack but I jumped on SC +9.5 2nd half BIG.
The other game was a real thriller--San Fran couldn't beat our local high school team

I got the under but I'm also thinking about taking the points also

maniac0201 · 01-10-09, 01:08 AM

Great game. Congrats to those on Santa Clara.

Madball · 01-10-09, 01:12 AM

Is there a final yet?? I can't get it??

maniac0201 · 01-10-09, 01:14 AM

Originally posted by Madball

Is there a final yet?? I can't get it??

St. Mary's 63
Santa Clara 62

Final

St. Mary's hit a 3 with 2 seconds left.

smitch124 · 01-10-09, 01:15 AM

Curious is now officially a genius

curious · 01-10-09, 01:22 AM

Well, we don't get the moneyline win, but we'll take the spread.

If you follow these big dog picks always put X on the ML and 2X on the spread. That way if the ML misses you still win half your play.

That is the third big dog in a row to lose the ML play at the last few seconds.

We'll hit one soon enough.

Congrats to all who followed.

tomcarter · 01-10-09, 01:44 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Pomeroy has St. Mary's 75, Santa Clara 64

So Clara may have some value at +14, but not as much as you are saying.

Good Luck!

great call curious

LT,where do you find pomeroy numbers for college basketball games.I have seen them preseason,havent found them for every game

thanks,

BlueBlob421 · 01-10-09, 02:21 AM

2026 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings

http://kenpom.com

clicking on the team will reveal their schedule, past games, and predicted finals for future games. The scouting reports and game plans are other great features to see a team's strong suit and how they're playing as of late.

Doc JS · 01-10-09, 09:09 AM

Curious,

Nice call!

After I won my Cavs bet, I came back and tailed you on Santa Clara. It was one of those covers that was truly never in doubt!

Doc

yisman · 01-11-09, 12:26 PM

curious, I followed you as well, although I'm still curious about how you came up with -2.

If that 3 missed, it would've hit your line on the nose.

yisman · 01-11-09, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

They are not playing Gonzaga.

I know I'm ignoring strength of schedule, but the argument could definitely be made for St. Mary's. Easily the best record.
In fact, the coaches poll has them 29th and Gonzaga 36th.

curious · 01-11-09, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by yisman

curious, I followed you as well, although I'm still curious about how you came up with -2.

If that 3 missed, it would've hit your line on the nose.

I use the pythag adjusted for strength of schedule. I convert that to a value moneyline using the log5 formula. Then I compare that moneyline to the actual moneyline the lines makers have set. If the actual money line is > the value money line then I have a play.

I have to estimate spreads from money lines as I have not found a formula for doing that for NCAAB. But on some of the smaller money lines the conversion is pretty accurate.