Tue, Dec 23 Why are these favs so overpriced?

[curious]

Okay so I was going to ONLY play big favs on the ML. So I see all these juicy -500, -600, -800, etc lines. Then I run my formula to see if there is value. All of these teams are showing that the moneyline price is way off:

Southern Miss -700
Siena -500
Delaware -750
New Mexico -600
Xavier -340

Which means that the play is the dog + the points, but that gives you these wonderful plays:
Weber State +11
Buffalo +9 1/2
New Mexico St +10 1/2
Marshall +10
Butler +8

Does anyone like any of these dogs?

[TPowell]

Butler plus the points looks good, but you never know with Xavier coming off a blowout loss. Butler hung around Ohio State to the end on the road (3 points)

[WestsidePete]

Yes...Weber St +11 and New Mexico St +10.5