Monday Leans/Plays

sportsguy04 · 12-22-08, 06:04 PM

^^^That is my final card for the night.. See you guys later. Curious and westside pete, looks we on same games so we shall win big tonight. Im out for the night, so good luck to us. Look to get on here at 11pm EST and see that everyone won huge today.

curious · 12-22-08, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by sportsguy04

glad to see you are hitting all the same teams I am today. Eh thanks bro for the other day helping me decide to ditch UC, A-state and another. All 3 ended not covering. Went 4-1 when I could gone 4-4 with those. Good work. i really like that Montana st+9 after they just beat fullerton by 14?????

You really should play the ML on favs. That is where the value is. I didn't believe this for a long time but when calculating where the value is as durito has been preaching to us for years I see value in the moneylines compared to the spreads.

sportsguy04 · 12-22-08, 07:41 PM

Originally posted by curious

You really should play the ML on favs. That is where the value is. I didn't believe this for a long time but when calculating where the value is as durito has been preaching to us for years I see value in the moneylines compared to the spreads.

Local only. Switching to online book soon.

sportsguy04 · 12-22-08, 10:57 PM

Remind me not to play the Sun Belt Conference please, they have been nothing but trouble for me.

sportsguy04 · 12-22-08, 11:00 PM

Remind me not have any type of bet on New Orleans ever again.

curious · 12-22-08, 11:07 PM

North Texas played their last game really tough. TOnight they play a scrub team and lose to NO. Oh well.

sportsguy04 · 12-22-08, 11:10 PM

Originally posted by curious

North Texas played their last game really tough. TOnight they play a scrub team and lose to NO. Oh well.

Yup, it happens but was my biggest play tonight. But need strong finish in my last 3 games then Ill be up for the night. Go Gtech, Montana St and Portland NBA.

sportsguy04 · 12-23-08, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by sportsguy04

Marquette -1.5 3*
North Texas -3 3*
Georgia Tech +7 2*
South Florida -2 1*

Adding:

Montana St. + 9 2*
TCU -3 2*

Also putting 1 more unit on North Texas, so NT is now 4*.
May add more onto Montana based on how much im up or down.
NBA:
Portland +2.5 2*

Earlier:
Drexel -L
Wright St. -W

Down .1 units going into USF game.

NCAAB Go 3-5 Hmmm... Maybe I should take a break

sportsguy04 · 12-23-08, 12:40 AM

69-51 ytd

WestsidePete · 12-23-08, 12:43 AM

got my ass handed to me...lost 12 units today...

sportsguy04 · 12-23-08, 12:45 AM

Originally posted by WestsidePete

got my ass handed to me...lost 12 units today...

About the same with me. Im not even going to bother counting.

I like tommorrow card though. I made a thread with leans so far. Played 8 games today, I noticed when I play more then 5 I lose more money. When I play less then 5 or 4 I usually do well.

WestsidePete · 12-23-08, 12:51 AM

Originally posted by sportsguy04

About the same with me. Im not even going to bother counting.

I like tommorrow card though. I made a thread with leans so far. Played 8 games today, I noticed when I play more then 5 I lose more money. When I play less then 5 or 4 I usually do well.

FT's at the end of games is killing me...pissing me off...I don't understand the logic of being down 7 or so with 15 sec left and still foul...or even in the San Fran game...down 4 and foul with 2 sec left....

sportsguy04 · 12-23-08, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by WestsidePete

FT's at the end of games is killing me...pissing me off...I don't understand the logic of being down 7 or so with 15 sec left and still foul...or even in the San Fran game...down 4 and foul with 2 sec left....

Yup I hear ya.

WestsidePete · 12-23-08, 12:56 AM

Originally posted by sportsguy04

Yup I hear ya.

It throws the logic of capper games out the window....

sportsguy04 · 12-23-08, 01:02 AM

Originally posted by WestsidePete

It throws the logic of capper games out the window....

Yup, Man you have no clue how many games I lost because Im unable to buy points. I would be buying points on some of these games that have sharp line. Lose by .5 or 1-2 points.

curious · 12-23-08, 01:48 AM

I went 14-19 lost about 2000 units (I think). Oh well, we will get them tomorrow.

sportsguy04 · 12-23-08, 01:49 AM

Originally posted by curious

I went 14-19 lost about 2000 units (I think). Oh well, we will get them tomorrow.

What u liking tommorrow.

WestsidePete · 12-23-08, 01:50 AM

Originally posted by curious

I went 14-19 lost about 2000 units (I think). Oh well, we will get them tomorrow.

wow and you cashed a couple of dog winners even... I think Georgia Tech hurt a lot of us...

sportsguy04 · 12-23-08, 01:54 AM

Originally posted by WestsidePete

wow and you cashed a couple of dog winners even... I think Georgia Tech hurt a lot of us...

That dam new Orleans team screwed me once again.

WestsidePete · 12-23-08, 01:58 AM

Originally posted by sportsguy04

That dam new Orleans team screwed me once again.

Yea...last game they lose to LA Monroe but beat N Texas??

sportsguy04 · 12-23-08, 02:02 AM

Originally posted by WestsidePete

Yea...last game they lose to LA Monroe but beat N Texas??

Thats that small conference Bull shit I been talking about lately, teams are too inconsistent.

curious · 12-23-08, 02:19 AM

Tomorrow's card is very strange

Okay so I was going to ONLY play big favs on the ML. So I see all these juicy -500, -600, -800, etc lines. Then I run my formula to see if there is value. All of these teams are showing that the moneyline price is way off:

Southern Miss -700
Siena -500
Delaware -750
New Mexico -600
Xavier -340

Which means that the play is the dog + the points, but that gives you these wonderful plays:
Weber State +11
Buffalo +9 1/2
New Mexico St +10 1/2
Marshall +10
Butler +8

Does anyone like any of these dogs?

The only plays I see right now are:
Cleveland St -360
George Washington -550

These two should be rocking chair winners.

sportsguy04 · 12-23-08, 02:22 AM

Only like the New Mex st +10.5. Thats about it, but Ive been cold.